US intel leaks: What it reveals and what's next

The recent disclosure of classified intelligence documents has provided a unique insight into the methods that Uncle Sam employs for spying on both its allies and enemies.

The leak has caused significant concern among American officials, who worry that the disclosure could put sensitive sources at risk and damage important foreign alliances. But periodic leaks of classified information and the ensuing embarrassment go hand in hand in the internet age. 

The damage is considerable — some US government officials are describing it as the most serious betrayal of state secrets since the Wikileaks affair. 

Governments of several US-friendly nations have also reacted with annoyance and as CNN reports, Ukraine has already had to change some of its military plans.

As for Russia, its government has stayed mostly quiet, denying any involvement in publishing the documents. The Kremlin did, however, describe the leaks as "quite interesting," and said they were now "being studied, analysed, and widely discussed."

What tales does the intel tell?

Initially sourced from the US Department of Defense, the documents also contain reports from several other American intelligence agencies. 

Regarding the Russia-Ukraine war, the documents prove something that has been speculated for a long time — Western boots are already on the ground in Ukraine. 

A document dated 23 March states that the United Kingdom has the largest contingent of special forces in Ukraine at 50 soldiers, followed by fellow NATO states – Latvia at 17, France at 15, the United States at 14, and one from the Netherlands.

Although the number of personnel may be limited and subject to change, the effectiveness of special forces cannot be underestimated. The deployment of such troops in Ukraine is likely to be exploited by Moscow, which has been asserting in recent times that it is not only confronting Ukraine but also NATO.

Moreover, the leaks cast doubt on Ukraine's military capability, and the US appears to be worried that their Eastern ally would be unable to repel another Russian offensive. There is also mention of gaps in Ukrainian air defences, and a shortage of ammunition anticipated for next month. 

However, the documents also bring forth good news for Ukraine. One leaked paper indicates that the US has infiltrated the Russian military and the paramilitary Wagner Group at the highest level.

Another document states that members of the Wagner Group secretly travelled to Haiti in February to negotiate with the government about possibly supporting it in its fight against rampant gang crime.

The released documents detail the conditions under which China would be willing to provide weapons to Moscow during the conflict in Ukraine. The intel claims that China would be prepared to supply arms if Ukraine launched an attack on Russian territory, indicating the level of escalation required for this to happen.

While the focus of the leaks was meant to be on the war, some countries have been caught in the crossfire.

One document reports that Egyptian President Abdel Fattah al-Sisi supposedly held discussions with top-level military officials in February about supplying Russia with artillery shells and ammunition — in the strictest secrecy, in order to "avoid problems with the West."

The documents also show that in Israel, leading Mossad representatives argued in February in favour of encouraging protests against the pending judicial reform and actively calling for condemnation of the new far-right government in Jerusalem. 

Another document revealed that the UAE planned to work with Russian spies in their operations against American and British intelligence agencies. The document suggests that Russia's Federal Security Service (FSB) claimed that UAE security officials agreed to the plan. 

According to another leaked Pentagon document, dated 2 March, Serbia, which has refused to sanction Russia for its invasion of Ukraine, agreed to supply arms to Kyiv and may have sent them already.

Deflect or deny 

The reactions from all the countries implicated in the leaks have so far been that of either deflection or denial — classic moves that apply to any negative publicity these days.

Instead of actually addressing the leaks, Pentagon spokesman Chris Meagher has said that the DoD is working "around-the-clock" to determine the scope and scale of any leaked material, the impact its spread could have, and how to mitigate future leaks.

Meagher also characterised the leak as "photos of purported documents," and said that he would not go into its validity.

State Department spokesman Vedant Patel said on the same day that US officials "are engaging with allies and partners at high levels over this including to reassure them of our commitment to safeguarding intelligence."

South Korea, a key US ally, said on Tuesday that information contained in the leaked classified Pentagon documents that appeared to be based on sensitive conversations between top South Korean security officials is "fabricated."

Seoul said over the weekend that it would discuss in a summit later this month "issues raised" by leaked memos detailing apparent US spying on its top officials.

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, in a recent statement, said that a memo detailing potential domestic meddling by Mossad is "mendacious and without any foundation whatsoever."

Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov called the revelations of US espionage on other countries unsurprising. Asked about allegations of Russian involvement in the leaks, he said there was no need to comment, citing a "tendency to blame everything on Russia."

Canada's Communications Security Establishment said in a statement on Monday that as a matter of policy, it would not comment, including on a document that appeared to describe the breach of a Canadian pipeline by a pro-Russian hacker group.

France has also declined to comment on the ramifications of the documents, though it denied information contained in a leaked memo saying that French soldiers were in Ukraine, the Guardian reported.

Serbia's Defence Minister Milos Vucevic on Wednesday dismissed reports that Belgrade agreed to supply arms to Kyiv or has sent them already. Calling the intel "untrue", he added, "Serbia did not, nor will it be selling weapons to the Ukrainian nor the Russian side, nor to countries surrounding that conflict."

And Egypt, one of the world's top recipients of US military aid, receiving $1.3 billion in military financing annually, has also denied the authenticity of the documents. An unnamed Egyptian state official called the document "informational absurdity" and said that Egypt follows a "balanced policy" with all international parties according to the state-affiliated media outlet, Al Qahera News.

So far, the incident has not been publicly addressed by numerous European and NATO countries, possibly due to the Easter holiday. And despite being the focus of a memorandum in the leaked papers regarding the efforts of the Wagner group to acquire weaponry from a NATO member, Turkey has not publicly addressed the issue either.

What now?

Much of the leaked intel concerns the Russia-Ukraine war and details the extent of American infiltration of the Russian war machine.

Russia's intelligence agencies will likely rush to search and dismantle which networks have been compromised. 

That will in turn end up creating more challenges for Western intelligence, as Glenn Gerstell, former general counsel at the National Security Agency, told the Washington Post, "It's basically leaky plumbing. You want to find out where the hole is and plug it in immediately. And it gets more difficult if instead of plugging one particular leak, they decide to replace a big part of the entire plumbing system."

Meanwhile, senior US military leaders have been scrambling to contact their allies and address the fallout from the leaks. 

This, according to Chris Meagher, includes calls "at a high level to reassure them of our commitment to safeguarding intelligence and fidelity to our security partnerships. Those conversations began over the weekend and are ongoing".

Chris Skaluba, director of the Atlantic Council's transatlantic security initiative, thinks a lot of the allies will probably be more curious about why it happened. 

Given the high-level security clearance needed to access the information in the first place, the leak raises questions as to who "would have that much of an agenda to put it out there," and whether the intent was to undermine support for Ukraine, CBC quoted Skaluba as saying.

In order to prevent such leaks in the future, the Biden administration is reportedly looking at expanding how it monitors social media sites and chat rooms. 

SM Abrar Awosaf. Sketch: TBS