Will a Trump presidency impact US-Bangladesh relations?

With India's decades-long influence over Bangladesh quickly disappearing since the fall of the Hasina-led regime, many experts believe it has paved the way for a new chapter in Bangladesh-US relations, at the heart of which is Chief Adviser Dr Mohammad Yunus - a darling of the US political establishment, especially the Democrats. 

After all, Dr Yunus had first become a global celebrity during Bill Clinton's presidential tenure, while US President Barack Obama had awarded him the US Presidential Medal of Freedom. 

Soon after Dr Yunus took oath, the Joe Biden-led US establishment was quick to embrace the new government, offering up all forms of direct and indirect support, which was quickly followed up by its Western allies and international organisations. 

The US is however a democracy, and come November, there is a very good chance a Republican government led by Donald Trump may take over. So can Dr Yunus curry the same degree of favour from a Republican establishment? 

Given Donald Trump's professed fondness for Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi, will Delhi once again find the space to have influence over Dhaka? These are questions circulating in the minds of politically aware people in Bangladesh and abroad.   

Trump's foreign policy and Bangladesh   

Trump's four-year presidency was a departure from traditional US foreign policy, characterised by an "America First" approach that often prioritised domestic concerns over international engagement. In interviews, Trump has been critical of interventionist foreign policies of past US administrations, even ones led by Republican presidents.

From my experience, I can say that the Republicans also respect Dr Yunus in the same way. Therefore, I don't see Bangladesh facing much adversity due to this change in leadership.

M Humayun Kabir, Bangladesh's former ambassador to the United States

Nonetheless, Bangladeshi foreign policy experts don't see a major impact on US-Bangladesh relations, simply by virtue of the fact that Bangladesh is not central to US's foreign policy concerns. 

According to M Humayun Kabir, Bangladesh's former ambassador to the United States, Trump's foreign policy tends to focus on bigger players like Russia, China, NATO and India. These are the areas where we'll see positive or negative impacts. 

"Trump's approach usually deals with broader strokes rather than fine details. So, much like last time, Bangladesh won't be at the top of its list in terms of global or regional priorities – which means we might not face significant disruptions," he said.

 "I don't see any major shifts for Bangladesh," he said. 

Anu Anwar, a non-resident associate at Harvard University, points out that US foreign policy is driven by its geopolitical objectives and not personal preferences of the president. 

"Under normal circumstances, a change in the US administration rarely results in a drastic shift in foreign policy, as US grand strategy is anchored in long-term national interests," said Anwar.  "A strong US-Bangladesh partnership aligns with American geopolitical objectives, suggesting that a change in leadership should not significantly impact bilateral ties"

That said, there are a couple of areas where we could feel some indirect effects. 

First, Trump's current campaign is heavy on anti-immigration rhetoric, with talk of deporting illegal migrants. "It's hard to say how much of that will actually happen, but if it does, Bangladeshis who are not properly documented in the US could be at risk. The numbers may not be large, but it's something we need to watch," said Kabir.

In 2017, according to a Prothom Alo report, US President Donald Trump's administration deported 11 Bangladeshi immigrants.

Another area to consider is US funding. 

In a recent interview to a Bangladeshi newspaper, Michael Kugelman, director of the South Asia Institute at the Wilson Centre, points out that the US is a top trade partner of Bangladesh, a prime source of FDI, and a major donor on issues ranging from public health to Rohingya refugees. 

However, things may change with Trump in office. 

"If Trump decides to scale back on these contributions, as countries like the Netherlands are considering reducing their external contributions, to focus on domestic economic concerns, it could directly impact Bangladesh," said Kabir.  

One key area that might be affected is the Rohingya crisis, where the US has been the largest donor. Official development assistance (ODA) to Bangladesh might also decrease if overall US contributions shrink.

Then there's global peacekeeping. The US currently contributes around 22% of the general UN budget and about 28% to peacekeeping operations. "If this funding is reduced, following the conservative trend of pulling back from international obligations, it could negatively affect Bangladesh, given our significant role and gain in global peacekeeping missions," said Kabir.

Kabir however does not expect much to change on the trade front. "Our trade with the US amounts to about $10 billion in exports and $2 billion in imports. That's a small change in the grand scheme of things, so we likely won't see the kind of tariffs Trump imposed on countries like India." 

He added, "We're just not a big enough player to be on their radar in this area. If it were over $100 billion in exports, then it would be a different case."

As for counter-terrorism, the last time Trump was in office, Bangladesh wasn't really a focus for the White House. Instead, the State Department took the lead, offering support for counter-terrorism and extremism issues. 

If Trump returns, "We'll see a similar approach, with US help continuing in those areas as long as they view it as strategically beneficial. Given how events are playing out in the country, I wouldn't be surprised if we see renewed US initiatives on counter-extremism," said Kabir.

Human rights and governance will remain a big issue. The sanctions against RAB that were put in place during Biden's term received bipartisan support — meaning Bangladesh will be held accountable on these matters even with Trump at the White House.

On climate change, things might shift a little, "but I don't think we'll be left in the cold. Over the last decade or so, have we really made the most of the help we've received?" asked Kabir. That's a question worth asking. Experts opine that even if Trump isn't a big supporter of climate initiatives, other allies, like the EU, will continue to step up. 

The US has already helped set up storm centres along our coastal belt, "and if necessary, I think they'll continue to provide this kind of support, regardless of who's in power," added Kabir.

In a nutshell, under a Trump administration, there could be a recalibration of policy priorities. Areas that have gained prominence during Biden's tenure, such as climate change collaborations and extensive development and humanitarian assistance, might see reduced emphasis.

Instead, a Trump White House would likely amplify its focus on economic interests and strategic considerations. The robust trade relationship between the US and Bangladesh, if perceived as beneficial to American interests, would likely remain a cornerstone of bilateral ties. 

However, the approach might become more transactional, with a heightened emphasis on immediate and tangible benefits for the United States, according to Kugelman.

The personality angle 

Sheikh Hasina, the ousted Prime Minister of Bangladesh, had a complex relationship with the US throughout her political career. In the 1990s and early 2000s, the Awami League was favourably viewed by the US as a secular, democratic government in Bangladesh. 

However, as her rule became more authoritarian, especially after 2014, it strained US-Bangladesh relations. Human rights abuses, press freedom and election fairness were some of the US concerns. 

In the lead-up to the 2024 January election in Bangladesh, the US increased pressure on Hasina's government to ensure a free electoral process, even threatening visa restrictions on officials undermining democracy. Hasina even blamed the US for her downfall, when she alleged she had been ousted for not allowing the US to set up a military base in St Martin's Island.

Many in Bangladesh now speculate Republicans may not support Yunus the way Democrats do, simply by virtue of the fact that Yunus does not share the same rapport with Trump as he does with Democratic presidents.

Kabir disagrees. "From my experience, I can say that the Republicans also respect him in the same way. Therefore, I don't see Bangladesh facing much adversity due to this change in leadership," he said.  

Michael Kugelman reiterates. He views Yunus as a stabilising factor in US-Bangladesh relations, noting that he is a leader the US is comfortable working with and Yunus is keen to engage with Washington.

Kugelman thinks while the US-Bangladesh relationship wouldn't undergo a dramatic overhaul, certain aspects might be recalibrated to align with Trump's foreign policy priorities. 

"Yunus has been critical of Trump in the past, and if Trump hasn't forgotten that, there could be some effects on the relationship," Kugleman said.