'Bangladesh will have to take this to the Security Council'

Since August, a total of 12 mortar shells have been fired from Myanmar into Bangladesh territory. Last week, a 17-year-old Rohingya, Mohammad Iqbal, was killed and five others injured at a Rohingya camp inside Bangladesh when a mortar shell fired from the Myanmar side exploded.

ASEAN - of which Myanmar is a member - voiced its discontent with Myanmar's junta as early as April 2021 during a summit in Jakarta. During the summit, the nine ASEAN leaders and Myanmar junta chief, Sr. Gen. Min Aung Hlaing, agreed to a 'five-point consensus': an immediate end to violence in the country; dialogue among all parties; the appointment of a special envoy; humanitarian assistance by ASEAN; and the special envoy's visit to Myanmar to meet with all parties.

But the junta continues to defy each point.

"By the time we meet in November, we must ask that hard question [if the consensus is relevant] and we must have the answer during that time," Malaysia's Foreign Minister Saifuddin Abdullah said on Monday.

Bangladesh's acting foreign secretary Rear Admiral (retd) Md Khorshed Alam told reporters on Tuesday that Myanmar is deliberately disrupting regional harmony to hinder and delay the Rohingya repatriation process. He briefed the heads of missions from Southeast Asian countries on Monday and apprised them of the current situation in the Bangladesh-Myanmar border. The next day, Alam held a meeting with diplomats (except ASEAN envoys) stationed in Dhaka. Notably, no representative from China, Russia and India participated in the discussion.

Meanwhile, Myanmar blames the Arakan Army and ARSA for mortar shells landing in Bangladesh.

The Business Standard spoke to Dr Nasir Uddin, Professor at the Department of Anthropology at Chittagong University and someone who has been closely following developments in Myanmar, to discuss the recent incidents on the Bangladesh-Myanmar border and how it might impact the fate of the Rohingya repatriation process. Dr Nasir wrote 'The Rohingya: An Ethnography of 'Subhuman' Life', published by The Oxford University Press and is also a visiting Research Fellow at the Department of Refugee Studies, Oxford University.

What is your take on the latest spate of violence on the Bangladesh-Myanmar border over the last couple of weeks?

First of all, the mortar shell is coming into Bangladesh and one person has, so far, died because of the mortar shells inside Bangladesh. My primary impression is that the infighting between the Myanmar army and the ethnic insurgency movement that has been going on in Myanmar is to blame. This is not anything new.

Ever since Myanmar became decolonised and the Myanmar army took over power in 1962, such insurgencies of different ethnic minority groups have existed.

The ethnic majority [Bamar, which is a Sino-Tibetan ethnic group native to Myanmar] formed the state. Subsequently, different ethnic minority groups, such as Shan, Karen, and Kachin started to clash with the Myanmar army in the border areas of Myanmar, fighting over their identity and right to self-determination.

Illustration: TBS

The Myanmar army has always tried to crack down on this sort of insurgency movement. This has been Myanmar's ruling regime's primary narrative. Ethnic minorities, who fall outside the national majority group, are in a continuous struggle to protect their political, social and cultural rights. In this context, in the Arakan state (which became the Rakhine state in 1989), the ethnic minorities there also launched the movement for an independent state.

The Rohingya, however, never developed any resistance against the Myanmar army. After the military took over power in 1962, the Rohingya have been tortured, but they never developed any type of resistance.

The Myanmar army committed genocide on the Rohingya community.  A majority of Rohingya have fled to Bangladesh. There are around 3-3.5 lakh Rohingya living in Rakhine; additionally, there are 1.5 lakh Rohingya living in internally displaced camps across Myanmar. Altogether, there are around 5 lakh Rohingya in Myanmar who live in perpetual fear of genocidal attacks.

The Rohingya first tried to form the Rohingya Solidarity Organisation (RSO), but the organisation was treated as a terrorist organisation and it faced a grave lack of acceptance among the Rohingyas. Later the RSO was dissolved.

For the first time, ARSA surfaced in 2016. But the International Crisis Group recognised it as a terrorist organisation. ARSA too could not develop any resistance against the Myanmar army.

Now the fighting is going on between the Arakan army and the Myanmar army.

The Arakan army formed its rebellion force, which proved to be very powerful. The Myanmar army is fighting neck-to-neck with this Arakan army. These mortar shells falling all over the place is a reflection of this infighting. It is their internal ethnic conflict or, as Myanmar says, a crackdown on the insurgency movement. We are experiencing some impact of this on the Bangladesh-Myanmar border.

The Rohingya and the Arakan are two different ethnic minorities in Myanmar; while Bamar is the ethnic majority.

On 1 February 2021, when the Myanmar military took over power, Aung San Suu Kyi-led National League for Democracy formed a shadow government comprising some former members of parliament. When this union government decided to recognise the Rohingya, it was the Arakan army [which essentially fights for the multi-ethnic Arakanese population] that protested the decision.

The Rohingya are not any party in the ongoing conflict, in any way, in Myanmar.

What should Bangladesh do, diplomatically, in this situation?

Bangladesh's foreign minister and foreign secretary have already said, and I also believe, that Bangladesh should take it to the United Nations officially. What Bangladesh is doing is maintaining diplomatic norms, like summoning the Myanmar ambassador and expressing concerns and protesting the incident. 

But you will have to bear in mind that the Myanmar ambassador does only a clerical job. There is no meaningful or effective response. What Bangladesh should do has been done, and at the same time, Bangladesh will have to complain to the UN.

It is unacceptable. A man in Bangladesh, an independent sovereign state, has died because of Myanmar's internal conflict. It is a serious violation of all kinds of international legal frameworks.

When the international community will be informed of the situation, it will put pressure on Myanmar. This has significance.  

If we take it to the Security Council, out of the five permanent members, Russia and China will lean toward Myanmar and the Council will not take a decision. Nonetheless, it will be discussed on the international forum.

Right now, people do not know that someone inside the Bangladesh border has been killed. The international community has not reacted to it. But when it is taken to the UN, the member states will be informed, a discussion will be held about it, and the security council may hold a meeting about it. I believe it is a very important task for Bangladesh to take it to the international community.

What do you think Bangladesh should, strategically, do to handle the situation?

Many people are saying that Myanmar is provoking us. We should give a strong response. But I do not think so. There is no uncomfortable space in our diplomatic relations with Myanmar, except on the Rohingya issue. Even on the Rohingya issue, Bangladesh has an active relationship with Myanmar. Whenever the two countries hold meetings, Myanmar says that they will take the Rohingya back. Bangladesh entered the Rohingya repatriation agreement with Myanmar. Bangladesh is even now buying rice from Myanmar.     

I don't think it will be a wise decision to take an aggressive stand against Myanmar now. But we will have to keep our people safe. To address the situation, Bangladesh has already kept the Border Guard and Coast Guard on high alert.

Some people have even spoken about military deployment. 

Military deployment can provoke a new clash. We will have to reinforce the border guards and coast guards so that whatever happens in Myanmar, it does not spill over. When you deploy the military on the border, it will indicate a different meaning. If you deploy the military on the border, you will have nothing to say before the international community.  

Do you have any idea about what is actually happening inside Myanmar, that is, about the state of the internal power struggle?

The Myanmar military takeover of power in 1962 and in 2021 are not the same.

Aung San Suu Kyi-led National League for Democracy has huge support from the people. You cannot suppress people's sentiments. As a result, people in different places in Myanmar are launching resistance movements. The ethnic minority groups, who have long been fighting for political, social, economic and cultural independence, have joined the common people.

For democracy, the anti-junta movement and ethnic minority groups have come together. As a result, the junta government is facing serious resistance. Myanmar's government is now trying to root out the movements with all-out efforts. I strongly believe the way the junta government is moving ahead, with its policy of repression and torture, it will not be able to carry on like this for much longer.   

What should the international community do now?

The ASEAN is divided. The ASEAN has a clause that they will not intervene in any state's internal affairs.

Myanmar is telling the world that some insurgency groups are causing havoc, and the government is cracking down on them. It is within Myanmar's right to control an insurgency. However, Myanmar is killing innocent people in the name of controlling the insurgency. This they cannot do.

The international community is providing lip service. The international community [such as ASEAN] could not take any effective measures against Myanmar. Even the larger international community [such as the UN] is doing the same thing by issuing statements.

The US has already imposed sanctions on Myanmar. But it will not work. Nothing seems to stand in Myanmar's way of killing innocent people. 

Ideally, the international community should form a coalition to compel the UN to take action against Myanmar. But the international community will not be able to do that because two UN members, Russia and China, stand with Myanmar.   

How will this series of incidents harm the Rohingya repartition process?

I think these incidents will have a serious impact on the Rohingya repartition process. You know that the Rohingya launched a movement "We Want To Go Back Home." They wanted to go back to Myanmar. These incidents have increased the crisis of guaranteeing a safe life in Myanmar for the Rohingya. Now the situation in Rakhine is a war-like situation. Why will the Rohingya want to go there?  

As a result, this series of incidents will put the entire repatriation process at risk. The Rohingya generally do not want to go back home because they do not know where they will go, where they will live and who will give them security. The Rohingyas are feeling a grave sense of insecurity now.