January 2024: Death of democracy again

Free, fair, and credible elections are considered the lifeblood of a democracy. 

Unfortunately, Bangladesh had lost its way in maintaining electoral integrity a while back. Its democracy was put in the dark ages since the 2014 January parliamentary election. 

The 7 January 2024 election was just a continuation of the same saga of trampling democracy.

The past three general elections since 2014 were perhaps legal in letter, but they in no way fostered the basic concepts, values, and processes of democracy. 

They dealt a near-fatal blow to the health of Bangladesh's democracy, placing it on a dying bed. This could have marked the end of Bangladesh's democracy, and it would need a restart, similar to the one in 1991, which began after the fall of the then autocratic ruler, Gen Ershad.

Political scientists across the globe now labeled electoral fraud and manipulation as crimes against democracy. However, those involved in committing the crimes against Bangladesh's democracy did not bother about the basic concepts, values, and processes of democracy, regardless of the widespread outcry.

Sworn in as prime minister for a straight fourth term after a thumping victory in the 7 January 2024 election, allegedly controlled and manipulated by her party and the government administration, Bangladesh's leader Sheikh Hasina, in her political life, seemed to have climbed the summit of Mount Everest.

Even before her fifth term, which began on 11 January 2024, she had already earned recognition as the world's longest-serving female prime minister, surpassing the tenures of Indira Gandhi, Angela Merkel, and Margaret Thatcher. Among them, the UK premier was dubbed the "Iron Lady," a nickname associated with her uncompromising politics and leadership style.

Already dubbed as Asia's Iron Lady by The Economist, a British weekly newspaper, in an article published in May 2023, Hasina emerged with even more clout through the latest election—unique in many ways—which turned Bangladesh into a proxy battleground for global superpowers. In this battle, Hasina emerged victorious by overcoming speculation and unprecedented pressure mounted by the USA and some of its allies on her government to prevent her from staging another sham election.

However, Hasina did not win alone. India, China, and Russia, which extended their unqualified support to Hasina to proceed with the election despite Western pressure, also won in this battle. This is why they rushed to congratulate Hasina on her election win and promised continued support for her government. This could also be dubbed as a victory for the Global South against US-led global hegemony.

While Hasina was showered with felicitations from the Global South after the election, the US, European Union, and UK did not follow suit. In their initial reactions, they questioned the fairness of the election and called for investigations into alleged manipulation and irregularities.

However, things gradually changed. The EU ambassador met Hasina and congratulated her a day after meeting the newly appointed foreign minister at the latter's office. The US ambassador also met the foreign minister on 17 January 2024, stating that they looked forward to working closely with Bangladesh. The political and diplomatic storm began to die down. Japan, Singapore, Brazil, Malaysia, South Korea, and many other countries congratulated Hasina and her new government.

On 18 January 2024, the UN Secretary-General, in a letter to Hasina, also congratulated her on her reelection as premier and said, "The United Nations remains committed to working with your government."

The apparent shift in US strategy was noteworthy. The US brushed aside speculation that it would not recognize Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina's fourth straight term in office. At a regular briefing at the US Department of State in Washington DC on 18 January 2024, a journalist asked, "So, when you say that the election results in Bangladesh were not credible, free, or fair, does this imply that the US will not recognize Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina's fourth straight term?" In reply, US State Department Spokesperson Matthew Miller said, "No, no."

Thus, Sheikh Hasina succeeded in her efforts to cling to power by holding yet another stage-managed election.

Another promise, another failure

For months before the election, Hasina and her senior colleagues in the party and the cabinet had been assuring Western nations that the election would be free and fair under her government, as they had continued expressing concerns over the poor human rights and democratic environment in Bangladesh. 

Unfortunately, she could not deliver on her promises. 

The 7 January 2024 election, though held amid boycotts by the principal opposition BNP and some other parties, was not free and fair. Election day was largely peaceful, except for some sporadic incidents of violence, but it was marred by allegations of ballot stuffing by ruling party men in the last hour of voting to increase voter turnout.

After the polling ended, Chief Election Commissioner Kazi Habibul Awal, in a press briefing, estimated voter turnout at 40% (the next day, the EC's final calculation raised it to over 41%). His estimation was treated with skepticism, and there was an obvious reason for this.

The Election Commission Secretary, Md Jahangir Alam, in a press briefing at noon, said the voter turnout so far was 18% in the first four hours of polling since 8 AM. In another update after 3 PM, he said that 27.15% of votes had been cast across the country by that time. After the polling hour ended, the CEC, in an evening briefing, first said the estimated turnout was 28%, but the secretary instantly corrected him, and he said the estimated voter turnout was 40%. The sudden announcement of a whopping 13 percentage point hike in voter turnout in the last hour of polling triggered controversy, as most polling stations appeared deserted throughout the day, although hundreds of Awami League supporters and independents were seen outside the polling centers.

Even if the turnout was 41% as claimed by the EC, it was a significant dip from the 80% turnout just five years ago, pushing it closer to the controversial 2014 election, in which Hasina's party won a landslide victory amid boycotts by the BNP-led opposition parties. In the 2014 election, voter turnout dropped from 87% in 2008 to just 40.04% (that election was held in only 147 seats, as 153 MPs were elected uncontested).

The turnout in the 7 January 2024 election, however, surpassed the controversial February 15 election of 1996, when only 26.5% of voters cast ballots amid a boycott by the AL, Jatiya Party, Jamaat-e-Islami, and some other opposition parties. Neither the 2014 nor the February 1996 elections were as peaceful as the 7 January 2024 election. In both past elections, the boycotting parties had announced programs to resist the polls and clashed with law enforcers and the then ruling party men, leaving 18 and 10 people dead, respectively.

However, this time, the boycotting parties—BNP, Jamaat, and some other opposition groups—though they called for a hartal on election day, could not launch any strong agitation as most of their senior leaders and thousands of activists had been put behind bars in the months preceding the election. The presence of a large number of law enforcement personnel in the field since the violence at the 28 October rally in the capital ensured total control over the situation by the government, producing a largely peaceful atmosphere on polling day.

Making the election "competitive," "festive," and achieving a "good turnout" of voters were identified as major challenges for PM Hasina before the 7 January 2024 election. Among these, one—ensuring a peaceful election day—was achieved. However, the low turnout cast a shadow over the mostly peaceful election, and electoral anomalies further tainted its fairness. In protest against these anomalies, at least three dozen candidates from the Jatiya Party and independents announced their withdrawal midway through the polling. The Election Commission (EC) canceled the candidacy of AL-nominated Mustafizur Rahman Chowdhury, the current MP of Chattogram-16 (Banshkhali), over "gross violations of the electoral code of conduct."

Apart from candidates of the AL and its independents, other candidates could not field polling agents in most polling centers across the country. After casting his vote in a city polling station, CEC Awal said he had seen polling agents of only one party at the centers. "I only saw polling agents of one party in the centers. I did not see agents of other candidates." He added that it seemed other candidates did not have the ability to field polling agents. "We had emphasized that all candidates must field polling agents to make the election competitive. But I found that all polling agents belonged to the election symbol of the Boat."

Jatiya Party chairman GM Quader, speaking at noon on election day, expressed fears that one-party rule would be cemented by sacrificing their own candidates. He also said that the Jatiya Party was being used as a sacrificial lamb for this purpose. BNP Standing Committee member Moyeen Khan, in a press conference, said that the people had responded to the party's call to boycott the election. "We salute voters for boycotting a one-sided election," Khan said.

Ruling AL General Secretary Obaidul Quader, however, said the turnout was satisfactory and evaluated the election as a "victory for democracy and the people."

After visiting polling centers in and around the capital, observers from Russia, Palestine, and Gambia, at a press briefing, said they found the election process in Bangladesh very impressive, open, and transparent. "What I found is that the process of election was transparent, open, and the election officials were efficient," said Hisham Kuhail, Chief Election Officer of the Central Election Commission of Palestine.

The European Union and other countries refrained from sending their full election observation mission, saying that the atmosphere was not conducive to holding a free and fair election.

Hasina, on 10 January 2024, claimed, "This election has been the most free, fair, disciplined, participatory, and competitive of all the polls held after 1975. We have proven that the election can be held in a free and fair manner under the Awami League government."

The world reacts to Hasina's election

While China, India, Russia, and some other countries' ambassadors stationed in Dhaka rushed to Gonobhaban, the official residence of PM Hasina, the day after the polls to congratulate her on her election victory, the USA, UK, European Union, and Canada remained silent. 

The Western countries, which are major sources of Bangladesh's export earnings, began issuing separate statements starting 9 January, disapproving of the way the election was conducted.

The USA categorically stated that the elections "were not free or fair." The UK remarked that the elections were not "consistently credible, open, and fairly competitive." The EU expressed regret that "not all major political parties participated in the election." Canada noted that the elections "fell short of democratic principles." Australia added that "it is regrettable that the elections took place in an environment where not all stakeholders could participate meaningfully and substantially."

However, not all international reactions were critical of Hasina's election success. The global south stood by her after the election, just as they had before the election. China, Russia, and India—the countries that are major import sources for Bangladesh's economy—rushed to congratulate Hasina by sending their ambassadors stationed in Dhaka, carrying flower bouquets to her residence at Gonobhaban the morning after the election.

Both sides released pictures of diplomats greeting Hasina with flowers and promising continued support. The Prime Minister of India, Narendra Modi, made a phone call to congratulate Hasina later in the day. Within the next two days, Chinese President Xi Jinping and Russian President Vladimir Putin sent letters congratulating Hasina.

Ambassadors of Western nations attended Hasina and her cabinet's swearing-in ceremony at Bangabhaban, the office-cum-residence of the president, on 11 January. However, none of them were seen on television screens congratulating the new government, nor were any comments made by them reported in the mainstream newspapers the next day.

Newly appointed Foreign Minister Hasan Mahmud, on 12 January, while speaking to journalists, claimed that all the ambassadors and high commissioners in Dhaka, including those from the US, the UK, and the European Union, had congratulated the newly elected government led by Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina on her taking office for the fourth consecutive term.

However, no public statements were made by any of the embassies congratulating Hasina. "The prime minister entrusted me with the responsibility of the foreign ministry. InshAllah, despite facing this challenge, we will move the country forward, brighten the country's image, and improve relations with the East and the West," Mahmud said. "The main motto of our foreign policy is not enmity with anyone, but good relations with everyone, and with that principle, we will develop closer relations with everyone."

More bizarre incidents

Several more bizarre incidents unfolded in Bangladesh's parliamentary politics in the last week of January, three weeks after the 7 January election, which was unique in many ways.

One such incident was the 28 January meeting of independent MPs with Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina, also the ruling Awami League chief. At the meeting, Hasina, who secured her fourth straight term, asked her party's independent MPs to play an 'independent' role in parliament by being the party of the opposition bench.

In the 7 January election, independent candidates won 62 seats, surprising the main opposition Jatiya Party, which was only able to secure 11 seats, even after a seat-sharing arrangement with the ruling AL in 26 constituencies. Of the independent candidates, 59 were affiliated with the ruling AL. However, they were confused about their role in the new parliament. Many of them wanted to join the ruling AL, but PM Hasina, during the meeting, clarified their role in parliament.

Her strategy was to ensure that the opposition bench appeared larger, so the House would not seem like a one-party parliament. Since the Jatiya Party failed to win more seats than the independent candidates, confusion arose as to who would be the main opposition in the House. Discussions even circulated about the possibility of independent MPs forming a caucus and emerging as the opposition party, which could have made the parliament a one-party affair.

Therefore, PM Hasina opted to make the Jatiya Party the main opposition in parliament. Its leader, Ghulam Mohammad Quader, was recognized by the Speaker as the leader of the opposition, responsible for managing the opposition's policies, scrutinizing the government, and acting in parliament. However, at the inaugural session of the new parliament on 30 January, Quader expressed skepticism about whether the opposition bench would be able to perform its role, given the small 'real size' of the opposition.

The meeting with the prime minister also indicated the possible role of the independent MPs in parliament, as they empowered Hasina to pick nominees to get elected as women MPs to the reserved seats allocated for them. According to laws governing the election of reserved seats for women, independent MPs are entitled to one-fifth of the 50 seats reserved for women, based on their strength in the House. By delegating this power to Hasina, the independent MPs demonstrated that they would never dare criticize the government's policies in parliament.

Sheikh Hasina continued to rearrange her political chessboard after the 7 January election. To make the parliamentary election competitive, she allowed some of her party leaders to contest as independent candidates to challenge her party's official candidates. This strategy worked to some extent, as the victory of many independent candidates, even by defeating AL candidates, helped her portray that the 7 January election was not a one-sided affair.

However, this strategy also backfired. Internal conflicts within her party at the grassroots level increased, and this approach failed to ensure a good voter turnout in the January election. Therefore, Hasina decided to make local government elections non-partisan, marking a shift in her stance.

Previously, elections to local government bodies such as upazilas, municipalities, and city corporations were non-partisan. However, her government had made the elections partisan a few years ago, allowing parties to field candidates under their own electoral symbols. This was aimed at increasing the party's control over grassroots leaders by preventing them from challenging party-backed candidates in local elections.

At the Awami League Central Working Committee meeting on 22 January, Hasina disclosed her plan to revert the upcoming upazila parishad election to a non-partisan format, where party electoral symbols would not be used. She stated that the elections would remain open to all, allowing grassroots leaders to contest and AL MPs to support whoever they wished.

The laws governing local government body elections are expected to be amended soon to reflect this change. This strategy may help reduce intra-party conflicts at the grassroots level and potentially increase voter turnout in the upcoming upazila parishad elections. The Election Commission planned to hold elections in 455 upazila parishads in five phases from March to June of that year.

Meanwhile, the BNP, which had boycotted the 7 January election, held a rally in front of its central office in Nayapaltan on 27 January, after a three-month hiatus. The party's last rally had been held on 28 October of the previous year. Senior BNP leaders, including Mirza Fakhrul Islam Alamgir, who had struggled to secure bail before the election, were granted bail in some cases filed after the 28 October violence. No one knew when they would walk free again.

Challenges for Hasina

Hasina's new government had little time for a honeymoon period to celebrate its victory. 

The challenges it was set to confront were no less than Mount Everest. Indeed, a Herculean task awaited her and the government.

The challenges she had faced in the months leading up to the election seemed to have grown even bigger after the polls, in which her party secured a fourth consecutive term in the absence of her principal opposition, the BNP, and some others.

Bangladesh had already been suffering from an economic crisis, primarily due to a shortage of forex reserves, resulting in persistently high inflation for months, which squeezed the living standards of the majority of its population. Diplomatic relations with the USA, the EU, and some other Western countries, which are major sources of forex earnings and investment, had soured months before the polls due to election-related concerns.

Citing a lack of a conducive atmosphere for holding a free and fair national election, these countries refrained from sending teams to observe the election. The election not only saw a low turnout but was also mired in controversy over voter participation.

The world appeared divided in greeting and not greeting Hasina on her election victory. Bangladesh had essentially turned into a battleground for global power players. However, Bangladesh needed to maintain a balanced relationship with all five major centers: China, India, the US, the EU, and Japan, especially from a trade perspective.

Remittances from the Middle East and the US were important pillars of the Bangladesh economy. Trade was another example of Bangladesh's interdependence on its five major partners. It imported goods from both China and India, added value within Bangladesh, and exported those products to Europe and the US.

M Humayun Kabir, a former Bangladeshi diplomat, noted, "If one of these pillars is affected negatively, then the whole structure would be affected as well." He added, "If confidence in the economic and democratic institutions is not rebuilt in the next few months and years, then maintaining Bangladesh's non-aligned geopolitical standing in the tug-of-war between great powers with diverging interests will become increasingly difficult."

Kabir also highlighted the challenges awaiting Bangladesh in geopolitics, especially with rising tensions in the Indo-Pacific region involving India and China. The US and China, both major global powers, were deeply involved in Bangladesh. He suggested that all these powers were keen to keep Bangladesh aligned with their interests. However, there had been speculation that Bangladesh was getting closer to China for obvious reasons—particularly because it needed China's support for infrastructure and economic development.

The sentencing of Nobel Laureate Dr. Mohammad Yunus to six months in jail by a labor court for violating labor laws had drawn significant criticism from the Western world. Many Western critics viewed the prosecution of Dr. Yunus as an act of vengeance by Sheikh Hasina. Dr. Yunus, who had become an adversary of Hasina after attempting to form a political party during the emergency government regime in 2007, was seen as a symbol of defiance against her. By sentencing Dr. Yunus, the Hasina government signaled that anyone challenging her power would not be spared. However, this move also risked labeling her as an authoritarian leader on the global stage.

After the 7 January election, major newspapers increased the level of self-censorship they had imposed long before the polls. If the media continued this trend, there would be few left to contain her further rise as an authoritarian leader, to the detriment of Bangladesh's democracy and people's freedom.

Bangladesh's relationship with the international community was complex and multifaceted. The economic and social development the country had achieved thus far was closely tied to its partnerships with development partners. Bangladesh was set to enter the process of graduating from Least Developed Country (LDC) status in 2026, which meant it would have to carve out its own space in the international community, as many of the unilateral concessions it had enjoyed for decades would disappear. The country would soon have to renegotiate many agreements related to trade, loans, and development assistance.

The European Union had indicated on several occasions that Bangladesh's democratic credentials would be a key factor in sustaining and expanding existing trade facilities. Lingering issues in the country, such as human rights, curbing press freedom, and civic activism, would remain focal points during negotiations with partners, particularly the EU, the United States, and the International Labour Organization (ILO).

Improving Bangladesh's human rights record after the 7 January election would be no easy task for the new government.

After being sworn in as prime minister following the January election, Hasina reiterated that she would not tolerate corruption. However, on 30 January, Transparency International released shocking news for Bangladesh. The country had dropped two places in the 2023 Corruption Perceptions Index (CPI), now ranking 10th from the bottom. This suggested that her previous warnings against corruption had been largely political rhetoric, as the situation had not improved.

Business leaders identified uncertainty over an adequate energy supply as the biggest risk for the next two years and corruption as the foremost obstacle to doing business in the country, according to a survey report released on 17 January.

Conducted by the Centre for Policy Dialogue (CPD) in collaboration with the World Economic Forum (WEF), the Executive Opinion Survey gathered responses from 71 senior officials of private companies in Dhaka, Gazipur, and Savar.

The report revealed that 67.61% of respondents considered corruption the biggest impediment to doing business, while 66.20% expressed concerns over an uninterrupted energy supply amid the ongoing gas crisis.

These two reports highlighted the lack of transparency and accountability as key features of the government Sheikh Hasina had been presiding over. 

Tackling these issues appeared to be another monumental challenge, especially in the absence of strong political institutions necessary for a truly democratic country.

Shakhawat Liton, Deputy Executive Editor, The Business Standard. Sketch: TBS