Population growth and Yuan Longping; The father of hybrid rice
Yuan Longping's work in 1970's has improved the yield of rice 20% more than all other conventional varieties including high-yielding varieties (HYV) developed by IRRI
Alarmist Prediction of Thomas Malthus - 1798
In 1798, just about the time when the World Population was about to reach one billion, Thomas Malthus, a British Economist-cum-demographer theorized that; "human population increases in geometric sequence, while food production increases in arithmetic sequence". Under such condition, he assumed; "humans would eventually be unable to produce enough food to sustain the society. As a consequence, their standard of living will go down to subsistence level". For a while, for many regions, it was almost seems like to be true. The theory was eventually proven to be wrong and criticized.
Nevertheless, the complex relationship between Population Growth, food production and Food Security should neither underestimated nor overlooked. In modern day if one region is unable to produce enough food for its population, it can be easily imported from other region. At the time he formulated the theory, it was basically an agrarian society. Not much surplus food anywhere. Transportation was difficult. Therefore especially food, has to come from society's own production. It is also important to understand the complex relationship between a Societies Food Requirement, Food Production and its relationship with population growth and technological innovation.
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From 1920's many countries were facing high population growth. Simultaneously those countries were facing severe food crisis due to lack of productivity. As a result many countries were trying to implement the family planning in 1960's to control the population growth. Simultaneous efforts were made to increase the food production and supply. Many country tried to increase the food production by expanding the cultivable land to feed its ever growing population. However due to the lack of technological innovation the productivity of per unit of land was very low. Though food production may be increased through expansion of cultivable land, but to a limited extent only because land itself is limited. Moreover extending cultivation by deforestation etc. means changing the ecosystem.
Population Growth versus Food Production
In the year 100, AD it was estimated that World Population was 195 millions. It reached to 275 millions in 1000 AD; 461 million in 1500 AD; and 1000 million in 1830 AD. By 1900 population reached to 1600 million; and 2000 million by 1930; 3000 million by 1960; 6000 million by 2000; expected to be 8000 million by 2022 and 8500 million by 2030 (Source: Worldometer, Hyde-2010). Above statistics on population growth shows that it took almost 1700 years to reach one billion (from 195 million), while it took only 100 years to reach to 2 billions, and it took only 30 years for next billion. By the year 2000 the population is doubled from 3 billions to 6 billions in just 40 years.
Malthus Population Growth versus Food Production and Food Supply and his alarmist prediction was to lead to a situation, where "population growth will eventually push the standard of living to a subsistence level". In other words. The hunger and poverty was suppose to be the inevitable outcome. His theory was based on certain assumption that; as population grows, land will remain same (More or Less). Arable land may be increased to smaller extent (between 10 to 20%). But due to land fertility problems, the marginal productivity of agricultural land and labor will decline. Since land is scarce and productivity of labor will face the inevitable consequences of diminishing return, the food production will be much slower (much less) than the rapid population growth.
The obvious policy implication is the population control and technological innovation to increase the productivity. Malthus may not have foreseen or predicted such technological changes. For Europeans, Food Supply was not a problem because they colonized many new land (countries), use the local population (almost like a slave) and used the newly acquired land to increase the food production and taken the produce to Europe. Albeit leaving the local people hungry. While Europeans did not have much problem with food supply, Asians were sufferings from Hunger. British started the colonization process of India in June, 1757 through the Battle of Palassey. They ruled until 1947. During this period 35 million lost their lives in various famines. The Bengal Famine killed around 3 million people in 1943 because of British Policies of transferring food to British soldiers in other parts of Asia and elsewhere. Winston Churchill, the then British Prime Minister blamed the famine on the people of India. He said that the famine was their fault for "breeding like rabbits".
Food Crisis in Asia
60% of World Population lives in Asia and another 17% in Africa, comprising almost 75% of World Population, which equals to 2.25 billion in 1930's. Rice is one of the 3 most important food crops along with wheat and Maize. But Rice is the staple food for most Asians, as well as substantial part of Africa. As a whole, Rice is the staple food for 60% of total global population. Rice also dominates the agricultural production in most of the Rainfed Asia. Most of the cultivable lands are used for rice farming. At the time of Malthus prediction 99% of Asian and African Population was living in rural areas. Because of the smaller land and over population, per capita cultivable land holding is very small. Thus smallholders not only cultivate rice for their own food supply but also to make their living. In other words rice production was important both to ensure the family's food security, as well as national food security. It was true for most country in Asia.
By 1950s it has become even more important to grow more rice because Urbanization was gathering pace with the Income growth. In most respects rice was the single most important commodity in the daily lives of all the Asian poor. Rice accounts for 70% of their calorie and 20% of the daily protein intake. So rice is not only important for general population for food but also for the millions (almost 1.5 billion) of small family farmers (now popularly termed as smallholders) for living. In addition, it was a matter of survival for millions of landless rural populations for their income from working in the rice farms. In the absence of any industry, there were no other employment. There were no other income source, other than working in the rice farms of rural Asia. At the time food scarcity had become a major challenge to Asia, not to mention the pervasive poverty. Thus increasing the production of rice entwined with food supply for 70% of the World Population. Rice productivity had become a issue of fundamental nature not only to save the growing population from hunger, but also for the nutritional security, employment and poverty reduction.
CYMMIT, Norman Borlaug and Wheat Productivity
While by and large 60% of the world population depends on rice for their main staples and nutrition, the other two staples; wheat and maize productivity were increased during 1960's. Dr. Norman Borlaug, an American agronomist, graduated from The University of Minnesota (1942) and joined as an Agricultural Researcher with CYMMIT in Mexico City, Mexico. CYMMIT grew out of a Pilot Program sponsored by the Mexican Government in 1940's assisted by Rockefeller and Ford Foundation.
The whole program was aimed at raising the productivity of wheat and maize. Under his leadership and hard work, the program developed higher-yielding wheat varieties through genetic improvement and new farming techniques. This new genetically improved varieties were more resistant to disease and insects. New variety and new farming technique increased the yield substantially. These varieties helped Mexico attain the self-sufficiency in wheat (staple food in Mexico) production in the 1950's.
Same varieties of wheat were introduced in India and Pakistan which helped India and West Pakistan to stave off famine in 1960's. While wheat is the staple food of the population of part of the northern India and Pakistan, it was of not of much help to other part of India and Asia as a whole. Rice is the main staples in all other places.
IRRI and rice Productivity
In this background International Rice Research Institute (IRRI) in Manila was established in 1960. While CYMMIT was working to improve the wheat and maize productivity, IRRI's main mission was to increase the rice productivity, following the same breeding technique like wheat and maize. Most of the Rice Scientists at the time did not believe that rice could be crossbred or hybridize. Therefore IRRI Scientists and breeders basically followed the similar breeding principle and techniques as wheat. IRRI's mission has been a success. Many new high-yielding rice verities were developed by following the basic breeding principle introduced by Dr. Norman Borlaug for wheat. As a result, the productivity and production of rice kept its pace with the growth in Asia's population.
Farmers at the beginning were reluctant to accept new varieties but efforts of IRRI were paid off eventually. In 1965 when I was a student of Intermediate Science in Cumilla Victoria College, there was a Japanese Specialist in Cumilla, who had made a tireless efforts to convince farmers to cultivate newly introduced high-yielding varieties developed by IRRI. It almost took a decade to make newly developed high-yielding varieties popular with small farmers all over Bangladesh. As the benefit was clear, at some point, almost 60% of all rice production in Asia were the modern high-yielding varieties.
These modern varieties which are known as "High-Yielding Crop Varieties" typically yield more than the local traditional varieties with the use of chemical fertilizers and pesticides. It also requires the the better management of land and water.
Green Revolution
This new technology allows more effective use of capital where land is scarce. The new technique could be adopted by small as well as big farmers and get the equal benefits. As such it is technology neutral. It offered a way to increase production of rice, enhance food security, improve nutritional security of poor, reduce severe poverty and in a way making development more equitable. However the success on the rice productivity front as stated above is not as rosy as I had stated. There are many criticism in many respects but the productivity gains of wheat, maize and rice through the new technology is generally accepted as the main driver of increasing the food production. Technological innovation which increased the productivity of wheat and maize (developed by CYMMIT) and rice (developed by IRRI) have come to be known popularly as the "Green Revolution". The green revolution increased the production of wheat, maize and rice globally and helped to avert the predicted famine as Asia's population burgeoned in 1970's. However, the food crisis continued in many Asian Countries.
Rising Demand of Rice and Dr. Yuan Longping –The idealistic optimist
Given the expediency of the situation, raising the productivity beyond the IRRI's high-yielding variety was an absolute necessity. Rising demand necessitated further productivity increase of rice. This can only be achieved by improving further increasing the yield. At the time (1960's) Asia was facing continued population growth (though at a reduced rate now) but also population shift, as most countries gathering pace of Urbanization. This has resulted in a concomitant increase in the proportion of urban rice consumers, who are totally dependent on rural areas for their supply of rice. As stated earlier, in those days most of the Rice Scientists in the World including Scientists in IRRI were in view; that "rice could not be crossbred and/or hybridize".
Fortunately, one holdout was Dr. Yuan Longping. A Rice Scientist born in September, 1930 in Changsa, a rural town in China. Son of a Railroad Official, moved frequently with the family from one place to another, uprooted by war between China and Japan. He studied agronomy in Chongqing and graduated in 1953 and teaching in an Agricultural College in Changsa. His experiment originally focused on sweet potatoes (the staple food for smaller number of people in South America). Then he shifted the focus on rice. Dr. Yuan was determined to develop the hybrid rice. Rice is a self pollinating crop. Thus, it poses a far greater challenge to crossbed and hybridize than other crops. Beginning in the late 1960's, his research on rice further stimulated by the "great leap forward" movement in China.
During the same period there was a catastrophic famine, resulted in millions of deaths. It is said that at the time, "grain was more precious than Gold in China". In fact it was true for many countries in Asia. Dr. Yuan himself told to China Daily in 2011 that "I never had a full stomach of food during that period, and that bitter memory is unforgettable". in his autobiography he recalled that; he witnessed many people tried to feed off hunger by eating grass roots and bark. In the wake of the famine came the "cultural revolution". He was targeted as an intellectual but saved by a Senior Official who "recognized the value of his research".
Like the great American Scientist Dr. Norman Borlaug, who developed high-yield variety of wheat, Prof. Yuan was incredibly humble. Never sought the fame or adulation. Those who had opportunity to meet him, they describe that; meeting him is like meeting with a humble rural farmers". His dream was always high. Vision was wide. He pursued his dream relentlessly despite hardship with invincible determination. When all other Rice Scientists thought crossbred of rice was not possible, he never stopped pursuing to achieve his goal. Obviously, the tasks was not an easy one.
Record shows that he had personally examined 14000 rice ears before he could locate "six natural sterile male plants". He conceptualized that "male sterile rice plants" were key to crossbred and to produce the vigorous, high-yield hybrid strain. He himself recalled in his memoir that; he had to look through tens of thousand of ears of rice, walking barefoot through the paddy fields in hundred's of places, before locating the right plant in Hainan Island in 1970. Locating the male sterile plant is one thing, but finding the technique to transfer the genetic materials to another rice plants is another. He has to work relentlessly for 3 years before he could develop the High-yield hybrid in 1973.
Achievement at Farmers Field
However, the large scale cultivation was not possible immediately. The other technology related to hybrid seeds production was not so easy either. Initially hybrid rice was developed in combination of three lines – "The male sterile, the maintainer, and the Restorer line". So additional three years of experiment were needed to produce the commercial hybrid seeds to make it available to farmers.
Later in 1990's he has developed the high-yielding hybrid rice of a two lines variety. Two line techniques means hybrid rice seeds are cultivated with the "male sterile and Restorer lines only". Thus less complicated to produce parental seeds and less costly to farmers to produce hybrid rice at the farm. Two line hybrids is even more high-yielding. In addition; resources to produce rice can be used more efficiently. Productivity rose from 8 tons to 11 tons with hybrid comprising two lines.
Dr. Yuan kept on experimenting until his final days to increase the productivity of rice. By 2004 the yield increased to 12 tons per hectare; increased to 13.5 tons in 2011 and 15 tons in 2015. At the time of his death he left a vision to increase the yield upto 20 tons per hectare (called superhybrid). He also shifted his focus to develop a rice variety which could be "produced at Sea Water or Salt Tolerant variety". He died on May 22, 2021 at a hospital in Changsha, China at the age of 90 leaving billions to mourn worldwide. It was reported that even from the hospital bed he continued to monitor the weather and crops conditions at the field.
Yuan Longping the Humane
His work in 1970's has improved the yield of rice 20% more than all other conventional varieties including high-yielding varieties (HYV) developed by IRRI. It has transformed the Chinese agriculture. Ten thousand years after China started cultivating rice and many decades of famine and food scarcity, the country today produce more than 200 million tons of rice a year, more than any other nation in the world. Today China is rice surplus despite the fact that the country has to feed 20% of world population with only 9% of the world's arable land. Humanity, specially country's where rice is the main staples, owe much to this great Chinese Scientist.
Bangladesh Seed Association arranged a meeting on June 26, 2021 to commemorate his greatest contribution to humanity and to show the deep admiration and venerate his life for poor. His life long work was dedicated to increase the supply of food to feed the growing population and to end the hunger. Simultaneously, he contributed in a great way to enhance the smallholders livelihood and reduce the poverty in the rural areas. In short increase the food security for the poor and reduction of poverty. His contribution to this wonder shall not be forgotten. He will remain memorabile for all time to come.
This peasant Scientist, a great human, not only helped China, a country of 1.4 billion whose main staple is rice, to solve the problem of food scarcity to achieve sufficiency, but also made most important contribution to all Asian and African countries, where rice is the staple food. In the process he also made important contributions to global food security. He did not want to limit his rice technology and farming techniques to China only. He encouraged Chinese government to share the technology with the world. He has partnered with the U.N. and IRRI in Philippines and encouraged these institutions to allocate resources to develop rice hybrid. In addition to teaching and encouraging farmers in India, Vietnam, Bangladesh and elsewhere in Asia and Africa to encourage the cultivation of hybrid rice. He has spent more than 10 years helping African countries to grow hybrid rice.
The Director General of IRRI Mr. Jean Balie said "Hybrid Rice's yield advantage is instrumental in feeding a growing population with fewer resources. We will be forever grateful to Dr. Yuan Longping's dedication and hard work on hybrid rice research work which paved the way for the development of several high performing hybrid rice varieties. The adoption of hybrid rice technology will help in bringing about rice self-sufficiency in Rice dependent countries. Dr. Jauhar Ali, the Head of the Hybrid Rice Research at IRRI said that; "he wanted to reach as many people as possible, so that the problem of food could be solved globally". Dr. Jauhar further stated that hybrid rice today account for about 15% of world rice production. We have to attribute this to Dr. Yuan Longping because "had he not been – China would have starved".
Awards and Recognitions – The Father of Hybrid Rice
Sadly, Prof. Yuan Longping was not awarded the noble prize. Instead the Noble Peace Prize was awarded to American Scientist Dr. Norman Borlaug who was the pioneer to develop the high-yield varieties of wheat. Nevertheless, Prof. Yuan was frequently cited as a leader of the Green Revolution because of his dedication to develop high-yielding hybrid rice and for his influence to cultivation of hybrid rice that nourishes half the world's population. Even more important he is popularly known in the world and called as "Father of Hybrid Rice".
He was awarded many other prizes and received many recognitions for his contribution to agriculture and food security. He was awarded prestigious World Food Prize in 2004 (shared with African Plant Breeders Dr. Monty Jones), the foremost international award recognizing individuals who has contributed immensely to increase the quality, quantity and availability of food in the world and for discovering a genetic phenomenon in rice which helped to develop the technologies essential for breeding and developing the first high-yielding hybrid rice variety ever developed.
He was awarded Chinese Supreme State Award of Science and Technology (2001); Hunger Relief Award by American Feinstein Foundation (1993); Science award by UNESCO (1987); Grain safety award by FAO (1995); Invention and Creativity Award by WIPO (1985) and many other national and international awards and recognitions.
Hybrid Rice Cultivation in Bangladesh
Hybrid rice variety was introduced in China in 1970's. Today almost 70% of Chinese arable land are producing high-yield hybrid rice. In Bangladesh hybrid rice cultivation started in 2000. By 2020 about 10% of total rice production is of hybrid variety but increasing every years. All rice producing country in the world today adopted the hybrid rice variety and like Bangladesh increasing every year. Dr. Yuan written in his opinion in Rice Today Magazine that "If half of the rice growing areas in the world are replaced with hybrid rice varieties, with a 2 tons per hectare yield advantage, (or 270 kg per bigha), it is estimated that total global rice production would increase by further 150 million tons each year. This extra production will be able to feed 400 to 500 million extra people each year.
Above table shows that at the moment Bangladeshi farmers are cultivating hybrid rice in only about 4% of the land during Aus; 3.32% during Aman; and 19% during Boro. Comprising all 3 seasons it stands about 9.72% of Rice producing acreages are hybrid.
However hybrid variety yield per acre is 1.885 tons per acre (average of all 3 seasons), while yield of other varieties are 1.270 tons per acre. Overall in all 3 seasons only about 9.72% of land cultivated with hybrid but producing 13.78% of total rice production. Taking into account all 3 seasons, hybrid rice yield is 1885 kg per acre, while yield of high-yielding varieties (HYV) and other local varieties only 1271 kg.
Hybrid varieties (HB), like HYV need better land and water management, as well as chemical fertilizers and pesticides. Scientists in China, IRRI, Manila and around the World including Bangladesh are now researching to develop hybrid varieties which will require less water, chemical fertilizers and pesticides which will be more suitable during the Aus and Aman and more suitable to consumer preferences. In addition, developing varieties which will be suitable to produce even in salt water.
Cultivation of Hybrid Rice in Bangladesh (in all 3 season (Aus / Aman / Boro); 2019-2020
|
|
|
Aus |
Aman |
Boro |
Total |
|
a) |
Hybrid |
|
|
|
|
|
|
Acres |
111,619 |
482,638 |
2,234,362 |
2,828,619 |
|
|
Production (tons) |
151,848 |
719,072 |
4,459,840 |
5,330,760 |
|
|
Per acreage production |
1.36 tons |
1.49 tons |
2.00 tons |
1.885 tons (average) |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
b) |
HYV + Others |
|
|
|
|
|
|
Acres |
2,690,324 |
14,050,348 |
9,509,006 |
26,249,678 |
|
|
Production (tons) |
2,860,025 |
14,783,030 |
15,721,514 |
33,364,569 |
|
|
Per Acre Production |
1.06 tons |
1.05 tons |
1.65 tons |
1.271 tons (average) |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
c) |
Total acreage (3 seasons) |
2,801,943 |
14,532,986 |
11,743,368 |
29,078,297 |
|
|
% of Hybrid acreage |
3.99% |
3.32% |
19.02% |
9.72% |
|
|
Total Production (tons) |
3,011,873 |
15,502,102 |
20,181,354 |
38,695,329 |
|
|
% of Hybrid Rice |
5.04% |
4.63% |
22.10% |
13.78% |
Source: DAE
HYV : high-yielding variety
As the new varieties are being developed suitable for Aus / Aman season, based on present trends, I am confident that by 2030 in an average 30% of the total rice cultivation will be of hybrid variety the total acreage may reach to 11,608,599 acres. At the present rate of yield advantage of 614 kg per acre, the total extra production may be 7,127,680 tons of rice. It will be even more as and when and if the Prof. Yuan's vision of 20 tons per hectare is realized. In such case lot of land may be released to produce other high value food items. I am confident that his vision will come true sooner, than later.
Conclusion
There are many factors, that influence the demand for and consumption of food. Such factors includes not only the population growth but also demographic composition of populations, level of economic development and income, taste and preferences of consumers based on cultures, pattern of food consumption of urban population and policies of the government that affect the prices and availability of food. The pattern of food consumption, nor the population growth is same in developed and developing countries. Presently the rise in population about 1 percent in developed countries, while about 2.5% in developing countries. Such phenomenal growth in population is because of the longer life span and reduction in child mortality due to modern medical advancement. This is largely off setting the productivity in the farm and increased output.
In 1965 the Danish Economist Ester Boserup challenged the earlier pessimistic view of Malthus where he had advocated that population growth poses a threat to food supply and economic development. In her book "The Conditions of Agricultural Growth", she has theorized that; rather than population growth is a hindrance to food supply or economic development, the population pressure acts as a catalyst to raise agricultural productivity. Her assumption is; "as population expands, there will be a growing pressure on the land's ability to sustain the production needed to meet the demand pressure for food. As a result, pressure will increase to increase the productivity of the land by stimulating the technological innovation.
To summarize; population growth inevitably lead to food scarcity. That acts as a catalyst for increasing the agricultural productivity. However, policy environment needs to be favorable for this effect to occur. Her underlying assumption is that Scientist will not move forward to innovate the technology to increase the productivity or peasants will not be motivated to maximize the production, until food become scarce, and prices are high. Combinations of above conditions will stimulates the scientific process to innovate and will motivate farmers to invest in adopting new varieties, new tools and technologies. Thus, there is a complex relationship between population growth, technological innovation and food supplies. Thomas Malthus probably could not predict such complex relationship.
Full credit goes to Dr. Yuan Longping to understand such complex relationship. That may be the reason why not only he worked as a Scientist to develop more productive variety, but also worked closely with the farmers. His effort was not limited in China only but also in other countries of Asia and Africa. In addition, he has worked closely with the policymakers to change the policy environment to induce and encourage farmers interest to increase the production of rice by adopting new variety, new tools and techniques. He may not be here anymore, but his creativity, vision, determination and achievement has opened the door for many to carry on his work to eliminate the hunger in the future.
The writer is Agricultural Economics President at Bangladesh Seed Association and former president of FBCCI
