What are Europe's gas options if Russia turns off the taps?

Russia's Gazprom has halted gas supplies to Bulgaria and Poland, reviving European supply concerns as Russia and the West clash over Moscow's demand for payments in roubles. 

Poland and Bulgaria have long-term gas deals with Gazprom that expire at the end of the year. They accuse Gazprom of breaching those contracts.

The following outlines Europe's options in the event Russia halts other deliveries:

HOW RELIANT IS EUROPE ON RUSSIAN GAS?

Russia supplies about 40% of Europe's natural gas, mostly by pipeline. Deliveries last year were around 155 billion cubic metres (bcm), 52 bcm of that via Ukraine or nearby routes.

Alternative routes include the Yamal-Europe pipeline, which crosses Belarus and Poland to Germany, and Nord Stream 1, which runs under the Baltic Sea to Germany.

Most European countries have cut their reliance on Russian gas in recent years. In 2021, the Ukraine transit corridor was mainly used for gas to Slovakia and then to Austria and Italy.

Both Bulgaria and Poland have said they would not renew their Gazprom contracts at the end of this year and have been seeking alternative supplies.

The EU has said it wants to cut Russian gas imports by two-thirds this year and end its reliance on Russian supplies "well before 2030". 

Some countries have alternative supply options and Europe's gas network is linked up so supplies can be shared, although the global gas market was tight even before the Ukraine crisis.

Germany, Europe's biggest consumer of Russian gas which has halted certification of the new Nord Stream 2 gas pipeline from Russia because of the Ukraine war, could import gas from Britain, Denmark, Norway and the Netherlands via pipelines.

Norway's Equinor has said it will try to produce more gas from its Norwegian fields during the upcoming summer in Europe, a season when maintenance typically lowers output.

Southern Europe can receive Azeri gas via the Trans Adriatic Pipeline to Italy and the Trans-Anatolian Natural Gas Pipeline through Turkey.

The United States will work to supply 15 billion cubic metres of liquefied natural gas (LNG) to the European Union this year, the transatlantic partners said last week. 

US LNG plants are producing at full capacity and analysts say most of any additional US gas sent to Europe would be exports redirected from elsewhere.

Europe's LNG terminals also have limited capacity for extra imports, although some European countries say they are seeking ways to expand imports and storage.

Germany is among the countries that want to build new LNG terminals. It plans to build two in a speedy two years.

In theory, that could allow enough LNG to be regasified to meet about a third of the supply Germany receives by pipeline from Russia, but Berlin would also need to secure supply in an already tight LNG market to feed them. 

Poland, which meets about 50% of its gas consumption with Russian gas or around 10 billion cubic metres (bcm), has said it can source gas via two links with Germany.

They include a reverse flow on the Yamal pipeline, a link with Lithuania with an annual capacity of 2.5 bcm that will open on May 1, and via an interconnector with the Czech Republic for up to 1.5 bcm.

Another 5-6 bcm could be shipped via a link with Slovakia to be opened later this year.

In addition, Polish gas company PGNiG can import up to 6 bcm per year via the LNG terminal in Swinoujscie on the Baltic Sea, and it produces more than 3 bcm of gas per year in Poland.

In October, a pipeline allowing up to 10 bcm of gas per year to flow between Poland and Norway, will be opened.

Bulgaria, where annual gas consumption is about 3 bcm and 90% of its imports come from Russia, has sealed a deal to receive 1 bcm of Azeri gas, but can only fully tap the contract after a gas pipeline with Greece becomes operational later this year.

A Greek source close to the matter told Reuters that Athens could help Sofia by reversing the flow of the TurkStream pipeline, a mechanism that has been used before. The pipeline brings Russian gas to Greece via the Black Sea, Turkey and Bulgaria. 

Several nations could seek to fill any gap in energy supplies by turning to electricity imports via interconnectors from their neighbours or by boosting power generation from nuclear, renewables, hydropower or coal.

The European Commission said gas and LNG from countries including the United States and Qatar could this year replace 60 billion cubic metres (bcm) of Russian supplies. By 2030, increased biomethane and hydrogen use could also help. 

New wind and solar projects could replace 20 bcm of gas demand this year. A tripling in capacity by 2030 to add 480 GW of wind and 420 GW of solar energy could save 170 bcm a year.

Turning down thermostats by 1°Celsius could save an extra 10 bcm this year, while by 2030, replacing gas boilers with 30 million heat pumps could save 35 bcm, the Commission added.

Nuclear availability is falling in Belgium, Britain, France and Germany as plants are facing outages as they age or are decommissioned or phased out.

Europe has been trying to shift from coal to meet climate targets but some coal plants have been switched back on since mid-2021 because of surging gas prices. 

Earlier this month, however, the Commission said it planned to ban imports of Russian coal from August, meaning EU nations will have to seek alternative supplies from Australia, Colombia, the United States and other countries.

Germany has said it could extend the life of coal or nuclear plants to cut reliance on Russian gas. 

Many European countries have put in place measures to manage gas supply and even ration power in case Russian gas flows stop.

Germany has already activated the first "early warning" stage of a three-stage emergency plan.