How Israel and Hezbollah are slipping closer to all-out war
More than 700 people have been killed since Sunday, according to Lebanese Health Ministry officials, and at least 250,000 have fled their homes
In the days since pagers began exploding in Lebanon, Israeli forces have stepped up their attacks on Hezbollah, pounding targets across the country and assassinating top leaders.
Hezbollah has fired hundreds of rockets at northern Israel in response — including its first-ever attempt to target Tel Aviv with a ballistic missile — in the worst violence between the two sides since a 2006 war.
Israel's military said it killed Hezbollah's leader, Hassan Nasrallah, in an air strike on Beirut on Friday evening. Israel targeted Nasrallah with its strike on Hezbollah's headquarters in the heaviest attack on the Lebanese capital in almost two decades. State-run television in Lebanon reported that six buildings were levelled.
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More than 700 people have been killed since Sunday, according to Lebanese Health Ministry officials, and at least 250,000 have fled their homes.
In a Friday speech at the United Nations General Assembly, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu vowed to press ahead with the fight against Hezbollah. "As long as Hezbollah chooses the path of war, Israel has no choice and Israel has every right to remove this threat," Netanyahu said. "We will continue degrading Hezbollah until all our objectives are met."
Detecting escalation
In order to capture a real-time measure of attacks in the region, Bloomberg Economics analysed data from Nasa's FIRMS model for active-fire satellite detection to visualise the conflict hotspots since Israel's pager attack on Sept. 17.
Israel steps up attacks on Lebanon
In 2006, the two sides fought a devastating, 34-day war with around 1,200 Lebanese and 45 Israeli casualties. A ceasefire brought the conflict to an end with the removal of Hezbollah and Israeli troops from southern Lebanon, and a UN resolution decreed that a UN force and Lebanese army — not Hezbollah — would operate in the space between the border and the Litani River.
Israel on Thursday said it was not interested in a three-week ceasefire deal being pushed by the US, the European Union and several Arab nations. Far-right national security minister Ben Gvir has threatened to break Netanyahu's coalition and resign from government if a permanent ceasefire is agreed upon. Israel is gearing up for a potential ground invasion to push Hezbollah at least five kilometres (three miles) from the Israel-Lebanon border.
Iran, Hezbollah's main sponsor, has so far refrained from intervening, even though Hezbollah requested greater support. Its president, Masoud Pezeshkian, called escalations in Lebanon "traps" for a wider conflict. That restraint might end in the event of an Israeli ground invasion.
For months, Israel and Hezbollah have engaged in cross-border exchanges of fire. Hezbollah began firing rockets on Oct. 8, 2023, in what it called a "support front," one day after Hamas fighters crossed into southern Israel, killing about 1,200 people and taking about 250 hostages. Israel has since killed more than 41,000 people in Gaza. Hamas is designated a terrorist organisation by the US.
The Israeli government evacuated villages in northern Israel on Oct. 16, 2023, and it recently made returning these people to their homes one of its goals in the current conflict.
Attacks from both sides of the border increased over the summer. On July 30, Hezbollah's most senior military commander, Fuad Shukr, was killed in a Beirut suburb. Hezbollah fired a barrage of rockets in response.
Israel and Hezbollah traded months of crossfire
Since the pager blasts on Sept. 17, Hezbollah's leadership and command structure has also been targeted with as many as six top commanders killed by Israeli strikes, including Ibrahim Aqil, who was considered to be one of the party's most senior members and led its elite Radwan force.
Along with striking both the aerial and rocket units' commanders, the Israeli Air Force has also targeted the militia's commander of the southern front, Ali Karaki, but he reportedly survived. Prior to July, Hezbollah's senior leadership had not been hit even though Israel had targeted Hamas deputy leader Saleh al-Arouri on Jan. 2 in the group's stronghold, the Beirut suburb of Dahieh.
The Armed Conflict Location and Event Data (ACLED) tracks reports of violence around the world. In this conflict, each event recorded may include more than one rocket or missile, but the data captures the steady barrage of fire that Israel and Hezbollah have exchanged across the border.
Israel relies on heavier missile strikes and aeroplanes, while Hezbollah largely fires rockets. Most of Hezbollah's rockets are intercepted by Israel's Iron Dome, the most active and well-known of Israel's air defences. Israel has attacked Hezbollah at a much higher rate, and both have increased their attack frequency in recent weeks.
Israeli attacks far outnumber those by Hezbollah
Israel said it believes that in the past week it has destroyed about half of Hezbollah's short-range rockets, which can fly up to 45 kilometres (28 miles), and their medium-range equivalents, which can hit targets 125 kilometres (78 miles) away, according to an Israeli official who declined to be identified because of the sensitivity of the matter.
US officials have argued the Lebanon ceasefire still has a chance, and France's foreign minister was headed to Beirut for more talks. One person familiar with the US stance said the Biden administration believes Israel wants to maximise its military gains ahead of any potential truce.
