A renewed hope for Saarc

The success of reforms will be critical to the interim government’s ability to maintain legitimacy and achieve lasting change. Photo: Rajib Dhar

A mass movement in Bangladesh has resulted in the ousting of Sheikh Hasina's government, widely seen as authoritarian and lacking legitimacy due to the opposition boycotting the January 2024 election. In its place, an interim government composed of professionals, retired bureaucrats, and youth leaders has assumed power.

This change has sparked renewed interest in regional cooperation, not only in Bangladesh but also in Pakistan, Nepal, and Sri Lanka. The idea of reinvigorating Saarc (South Asian Association for Regional Cooperation) has resurfaced, with many viewing it as a promising platform that has been dormant for too long.

As these countries seek to relaunch Saarc, there is hope that the organisation can once again become a vehicle for addressing shared regional challenges. Despite its earlier decline, a collective push from key members could breathe new life into Saarc, making it relevant in today's geopolitical landscape.

Challenges facing Saarc

Saarc faces several persistent challenges, largely stemming from geopolitical tensions, particularly between India and Pakistan. Key issues include:

Geopolitical rivalries: The long-standing conflict between India and Pakistan, especially over Kashmir, has frequently stalled cooperation within Saarc. Political disagreements often disrupt the association's agendas and meetings. 

The rivalry between the two countries is the most significant obstacle to Saarc's functioning. Their inability to resolve bilateral disputes has led to the postponement or cancellation of summits, such as the 2016 summit in Pakistan, boycotted by India following the Uri attack. 

This tension paralyses Saarc's ability to make unanimous decisions, as the organisation operates on a consensus-based model, allowing a single member to block agreements. 

For instance, India's refusal to engage with Pakistan after cross-border terrorism events has disrupted Saarc's activities, delaying progress on initiatives like trade liberalisation under the South Asian Free Trade Area (SAFTA).

Economic disparities: Member countries vary significantly in terms of economic size and development, complicating consensus on trade agreements or development projects. India's GDP dwarfs that of other Saarc nations, granting it considerable influence over regional affairs. 

Smaller countries such as Nepal and Bhutan often rely heavily on India for trade and connectivity, providing India with leverage in negotiations. This influence is evident in sub-regional initiatives like the BBIN (Bangladesh, Bhutan, India, Nepal) framework, which, while aiming at greater connectivity and cooperation, often sidelines Saarc and underscores India's preference for alternative platforms when the association is hindered by bilateral conflicts.

Bilateral issues overshadowing regional goals: Conflicts between member states frequently take precedence over collective regional progress, limiting Saarc's effectiveness. Territorial disputes between India and Pakistan and water-related conflicts between India and Bangladesh are prominent examples of bilateral issues overshadowing regional cooperation.

Internal political instability: Political instability in several member countries has also hampered Saarc's effectiveness. Nations such as Afghanistan, Sri Lanka, and Nepal faces domestic challenges that divert attention from regional cooperation. For example, Afghanistan's political turmoil following the Taliban takeover has created uncertainty about the country's role in Saarc. 

Although the association focusses on economic collaboration, internal political crises often drain resources and reduce commitments to regional goals.

Lack of political will: A consistent political commitment to prioritise Saarc over national or bilateral interests is often lacking. As the largest economy and most influential political force in the region, India's role is crucial to the organisation's success.

India's crucial role in Saarc's success

While India has expressed a commitment to regional cooperation, it often prioritises bilateral and sub-regional forums like BIMSTEC (Bay of Bengal Initiative for Multi-Sectoral Technical and Economic Cooperation) when Saarc falters due to conflicts with Pakistan. India's leadership could guide Saarc forward if geopolitical tensions, particularly with Pakistan are managed diplomatically, allowing smoother collaboration.

India's "Neighbourhood First" policy underscores its focus on strengthening bilateral ties with smaller South Asian nations like Bhutan, Nepal, and Bangladesh. Its participation in initiatives such as BIMSTEC and the International Solar Alliance (ISA) reflects a strategic shift towards platforms where progress is not impeded by the India-Pakistan stalemate. 

By excluding Pakistan, BIMSTEC allows India to lead regional efforts on trade, connectivity, and counter-terrorism without bilateral tensions overshadowing progress.

As the largest economy in Saarc, contributing around 80% of the region's GDP, India's economic dominance gives it a leading role in regional initiatives. However, this also creates imbalances, as smaller countries, such as Bangladesh, often depend heavily on India for trade and infrastructure development. 

India's leadership in projects like the South Asian Free Trade Area (SAFTA) has promoted trade liberalisation and economic growth across Saarc. Nevertheless, India could further its influence by reducing non-tariff barriers and offering greater market access to smaller Saarc members. This would not only boost smaller economies like Nepal and Bhutan but also strengthen Saarc as a regional economic bloc. 

However, if India continues to favour bilateral or sub-regional platforms like BIMSTEC over Saarc, the organisation risks becoming further marginalised.

India's role in Saarc is inherently complex. On the one hand, its leadership and economic strength are crucial for the association's success. On the other hand, ongoing conflicts with Pakistan, along with its growing preference for alternative forums, have impeded Saarc's effectiveness. 

For Saarc to progress, India and Pakistan would need to depoliticise regional cooperation and address their bilateral issues. Until then, India is likely to continue focussing on more functional sub-regional and multilateral platforms, leaving Saarc largely stagnant.

India-Bangladesh bilateral relations and Saarc's potential

India and Bangladesh play pivotal roles in shaping Saarc's operational effectiveness. Their bilateral relationship and individual contributions significantly influence regional cooperation, offering insights into the challenges Saarc faces and the opportunities it could seize.

Strong bilateral relations: The India-Bangladesh relationship is often viewed as a model of bilateral cooperation within Saarc. Their collaboration on trade, security, water-sharing, and connectivity demonstrates the potential of Saarc to foster meaningful cooperation among its members. 

The 2015 Land Boundary Agreement (LBA), which resolved a long-standing border dispute, highlights the importance of diplomacy and mutual trust. This serves as a precedent for resolving disputes within Saarc, with the India-Bangladesh example showing that historical and political issues can be overcome. 

If other members, particularly India and Pakistan, adopted similar diplomatic approaches, it could lead to stronger regional ties, enhanced trade, and improved collective responses to shared challenges such as climate change and terrorism.

Security cooperation: India plays a central role in regional security through its efforts to combat terrorism, enhance border security, and strengthen military cooperation. Bangladesh has been a key partner in these initiatives, particularly through its crackdown on insurgent groups operating along its border with India. 

This collaboration has enhanced regional stability, which is crucial for Saarc's broader goals. For instance, the 2015 Coastal Shipping Agreement between India and Bangladesh improved maritime security and trade, setting an example for similar agreements within Saarc to address shared security concerns, such as piracy, trafficking, and smuggling.

Bangladesh as a bridge between India and smaller Saarc nations

Bangladesh has consistently advocated for regional cooperation and integration, often acting as a bridge between India and smaller Saarc members. As a mid-sized economy, Bangladesh plays a critical role in ensuring that regional initiatives do not solely reflect India's interests. 

Its leadership in promoting SAFTA and energy cooperation projects has helped maintain momentum even when larger powers, such as India and Pakistan, are at odds. 

For example, Bangladesh could mediate to keep economic cooperation on track within Saarc, even during periods of heightened geopolitical tension. By encouraging members to prioritise common issues like climate change or poverty alleviation, Bangladesh could help rejuvenate the organisation's relevance.

As one of the countries most vulnerable to climate change, Bangladesh has taken the lead in advocating for regional cooperation on environmental issues. 

The Saarc Disaster Management Centre is an example of an institution where Bangladesh has played a pivotal role, emphasising collective responses to natural disasters. With South Asia prone to floods, cyclones, and earthquakes, Bangladesh's promotion of regional climate resilience initiatives could drive greater collaboration on coastal protection, disaster preparedness, and sustainable development. 

By linking climate resilience to economic growth, Bangladesh has the potential to position Saarc as a more relevant forum for all members.

Challenges facing India-Bangladesh cooperation within Saarc

India's bilateralism over regionalism: While India remains a central figure within Saarc, its growing preference for bilateral and sub-regional forums like BIMSTEC (which includes Bangladesh but excludes Pakistan) weakens Saarc's cohesion. Bangladesh, often caught in the middle, benefits from strong bilateral ties with India but also desires a robust and effective Saarc. 

In a future scenario, India could use its close relations with Bangladesh to advocate for broader cooperation within Saarc, leveraging Bangladesh's diplomatic position to bridge gaps with other members, including Pakistan. 

However, if India continues to prioritise sub-regional groupings, Bangladesh may find itself navigating a delicate balancing act, striving to uphold its leadership role in Saarc while aligning with India's broader strategic objectives.

The Rohingya crisis: Bangladesh has sought Saarc's assistance in addressing the Rohingya refugee crisis, which has placed considerable strain on its resources. 

However, India's reluctance to support Bangladesh's efforts for a regional response to this issue reveals Saarc's limitations in handling sensitive political matters. The organisation's failure to address the Rohingya crisis underscores the absence of a unified regional stance on human rights and refugee issues. 

If Saarc continues to neglect pressing matters such as this, it risks losing its relevance as a platform for addressing humanitarian concerns. India's active involvement in such crises could enhance Saarc's credibility, while inaction might compel countries like Bangladesh to seek support through alternative forums.

Possible Scenarios: India and Bangladesh both have the potential to play effective roles in Saarc, but their influence is shaped by different dynamics. India's economic and political dominance allows it to guide the organisation, but its preference for bilateralism can undermine regional cooperation. 

Bangladesh, acting as a bridge between smaller countries and India, could facilitate greater unity by focussing on non-political issues such as climate change and disaster management. For Saarc to thrive, India and Bangladesh must collaborate, ensuring that the organisation remains relevant in an increasingly fragmented regional landscape.

Possible future scenarios include:

1. India leveraging its bilateral ties with Bangladesh to push for broader Saarc initiatives.
2. Bangladesh mediating between Saarc members to depoliticise cooperation on economic and environmental issues.
3. Both countries continuing to strengthen their cooperation, which could serve as a model for resolving other regional disputes.

If these roles are managed effectively, India and Bangladesh could help transform Saarc into a more dynamic and cooperative regional organisation.

The most optimistic, yet feasible, long-term vision for Saarc would be for the region to learn from the unification of historical rivals, such as East and West Germany, and how more than 20 European nations later came together to form the European Union (EU). 

With its Parliament, the Euro as a common currency, and the ease of international trade, commerce, and movement of labour and tourists, the EU has benefitted all its members over the past decades. 

In retrospect, the UK's decision to leave the EU through Brexit now appears to have been a misstep. Similarly, for Saarc, envisioning a united South Asia with cooperative policies on trade, security, and regional mobility could bring shared prosperity to all its member nations.

Sketch: TBS

Professor Ujjwal K Chowdhury is the Vice President, International Relations and Global Marketing of Washington University of Science & Technology (WUST), Virginia, US.

Disclaimer: The views and opinions expressed in this article are those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the opinions and views of The Business Standard.