What does Nadal need to do to beat defending champion Djokovic?

On clay, at Stade Roland Garros, at Philippe Chatrier, there is only one name that emerges, of Rafael Nadal. The Spaniard has racked up a jaw-dropping 109-3 win-loss record en route to his 13 titles on the Parisian red dirt, making it the most magnificent of feats owned by a player at a single Slam in the history of the sport. Hence, beating Rafa at the French Open remains arguably the toughest task in tennis ever. Such has been his dominance that only thrice has Nadal been forced to a deciding fifth set at the Roland Garros but never has he succumbed.

And only two players have so far managed to breach his fortress. The staggering numbers certainly do make Nadal the overwhelming favourite irrespective of his opponent. Yet, in his quarterfinal clash on Tuesday, the odds will be hugely in favour of Novak Djokovic.

The Serbian remains the only player to beat Nadal twice at the Roland Garros, the second of which came almost 12 months back at the same court, in the semifinal tie. Moreover, Djokovic, who is yet to lose a set in the 2022 French Open, also leads the head-to-head battle 30-28.

While all these numbers will be water under the bridge when the much-anticipated quarter-final tie kicks off on Tuesday night, the most concerning factor that puts Nadal as the second favourite in the clash has been his foot injury which has even sparked retirement talks from the Spaniard for the first time ever following his nervy five-setter win against Felix Auger-Aliassime in the fourth round.

Dominating the shorter rallies

Remember Nadal's thumping straight-set win against Djokovic in the 2020 French Open final? The key factor behind Nadal's domination was his crushing figures (53-25) in the shorter rallies (0-4). The 21-time Grand Slam winner has managed to keep it short throughout the tournament so far - 59 per cent of his rallies have been between 0-4 shots while his average rally length has been 4.7. However, Djokovic has been more dominating in the shorter rallies in this tournament so far, with a win percentage of 58.6, compared to Nadal's 53.6.

However, the factor that Djokovic had targeted in his epic 2021 win was the mid-length rallies (5-8), which remains the heartbeat of Nadal's domination on clay. The 35-year-old has produced more winners to errors (131-73) in the mid-length rallies this time round so far, compared to Djokovic's (114-67).

Djokovic's first, Nadal's second

Djokovic has been serving really well all throughout the tournament. He has registered 21 aces so far and 71 per cent of his first serves have landed in with a 77 per cent winning rate behind it. While Nadal's return points won on the first serve (41 per cent) is similar to that of Djokovic so far, the world no.1 has held serve in 49 out of 52 service games, and saved 14/17 breakpoints.

While Nadal's first-serve numbers have been comparatively less - 7 aces, 65 per cent first serves in, 73 per cent won and 52 holds out of 61 service games - he has been dominating where he mostly does - the second serve. He has won an impressive 63 per cent of points on the second serve. But Djokovic, one of the best returners on the tour, has punished opponents second serve so far in the tournament, winning 63 per cent of them. Both the stalwarts however have a near similar win percentage on breakpoints - Djokovic's 48% (23/48) to Nadal's 46% (26/57).