Are the Tories intent on appearing ungovernable?

For her recklessness, Liz Truss was once described by a colleague as "the human hand grenade." Now she has blown apart her premiership in a record-breaking 44 days. Although Conservatives will decide upon her successor within a week, the ructions in the party are likely to persist for years.

Seemingly oblivious to the damage they have inflicted on themselves in opinion polls and markets, Tory factions are intent on reenacting one of the bloodier storylines from Game of Thrones. In a time of economic and international crisis, the UK requires a steady hand at the helm — but have the Tories themselves become ungovernable? Over the last six years, successive Conservative leaders have been brought low by party rebellions. The habit looks ingrained.

Each candidate to succeed Truss has until 2 p.m. on Monday to gather the nominations of 100 MPs to be considered.

Truss's shoo-in replacement would seem to be her defeated leadership rival, former Chancellor of the Exchequer Rishi Sunak, who is said to have the most support thus far. As a fiscal conservative, Sunak predicted that Truss's tax cuts would spook the markets. And like the majority of Tory Party members, he, unlike Truss, supported Brexit in the 2016 referendum. In an era of market turbulence, he is the proverbial safe pair of hands, preferred by City of London big-wigs. 

During Truss's time of troubles, Sunak wisely kept his head down and refrained from the temptation to say "I told you so." Surely that makes him a plausible unity candidate, capable of staunching inevitable Tory losses at the next election.

Yet Sunak and his rivals have to reckon with the new "paranoid style" of Conservative politics, which, like its American equivalent, sees Establishment conspiracies everywhere. As a former Goldman Sachs banker, Sunak will be accused of plotting to sell out his party and country to international financiers, intent on building "Davos-on-Thames." Although a Brexiteer, he will be charged with "appeasing" Europe, too, if he seeks a necessary accommodation on trade with Brussels.

Even Truss, a born-again convert to Brexit, was accused by the Tory Right of adopting "the wet Remainer agenda" when she dropped much of her tax cutting program and appointed a former supporter of EU membership, Jeremy Hunt, as her second chancellor. How will Sunak fare with the conspiracy mongers? Some MPs haven't even forgiven him for his part in bringing down former Prime Minister Boris Johnson.

Another possible contender, the third-placed leadership candidate last time around, Penny Mordaunt, is a personable performer who stood in for Truss after an embarrassing no-show in the House of Commons this week. Despite her strength under fire, she hasn't shown much sign yet of grappling with the serious challenges facing the country. If Mordaunt were to win the contest, she would find her worst enemies sitting next to her in the House of Commons. At the party's annual conference in Birmingham a few weeks ago, I heard her described as "The Manchurian Candidate," after the Cold War thriller about a brainwashed sleeper agent operating within the West. Mordaunt's liberal views on trans issues are anathema to moral conservatives.

It is fashionable to compare the UK's recent revolving-door politics to those of Italy. If the third possible contender, Boris Johnson, mounts a comeback, then comparisons to Silvio Berlusconi, man of many encores, will become irresistible too. However, one cannot be certain that "Boris-coni" will even run: He squandered his first chance to become Tory leader after Brexit by absenting himself from the political arena to the cricket field.  

Yet Johnson is believed to be just behind Sunak in terms of MP nominations. His return from a Caribbean holiday in this moment of crisis is keenly awaited. His natural allies are MPs in marginal seats in the North and Midlands captured from the Labour party at the last election, but many other Tories also believe that Boris still has the "X" factor required to save their party from electoral oblivion.

On the negative side of the ledger, Johnson was forced out only three months ago after nearly 60 members of his government resigned in protest against his chaotic style of government and the Partygate scandals. More than four in 10 of his own MPs said they had no confidence in his leadership, and a powerful House of Commons committee is currently conducting an inquiry into his ethics. As former Conservative leader Michael Howard put it on Thursday, if Johnson takes the stage again, there's no knowing where his "psychodrama" will lead next. Two Conservative MPs have already threatened to abandon the party whip if he gets back into Downing Street. The former premier is hardly the stability candidate.

Cracks in the Tory electoral coalition will be hard for even the most skilful leader to paper over. In 2019, Johnson attracted new voters who backed Brexit, opposed high levels of immigration and took the conservative side in "culture wars." But they also favour higher taxes to pay for more spending on health and education. The economic right, which divided its allegiance between Truss and Sunak last time around, wants low taxes, a smaller state and higher levels of immigration to ease the tight labour market. No wonder a majority of Brexit voters have switched allegiance to the Labour party.

A large contingent of Tory MPs have made their opposition clear to cuts in public spending and benefits. They forced spectacular U-turns from both Johnson and Truss. In the leafy south, Tory MPs oppose any new building in their constituencies and have made the government concede too. Truss's "anti-growth coalition" included much of her own party. Her successor will struggle to convince Conservatives that they can't enjoy lower taxes, higher public spending, rapid economic growth and planning constraints all at the same time. This is a recipe for disaster.

If they go on to undermine their fifth prime minister within six years, the Tories will deserve to be wiped out at the next general election, due within two years. And unless the infighting stops, the popular clamour outside Westminster for that election will become a deafening roar. Don't underestimate the anger of voters at Tory party games.

Martin Ivens is the editor of the Times Literary Supplement. 

Disclaimer: This opinion first appeared on Bloomberg, and is published by special syndication arrangement