Bangladesh at a crossroads: Navigating the aftermath of an uprising

Bangladesh finds itself at a critical juncture following the student-led revolution on 5 August 2024, which brought an end to the 16-year authoritarian rule of Sheikh Hasina. 

Her long tenure left the nation with deeply eroded institutions, severely weakened democratic structures, and a governance system plagued by partisanship. 

The aftermath of her downfall presents both challenges and opportunities as the country struggles to rebuild its political and institutional foundations while addressing the scars left behind by years of autocratic rule.

Institutional erosion: The legacy of Hasina's rule

One of the most significant casualties of Sheikh Hasina's regime was the institutional integrity of Bangladesh. The police, in particular, became an instrument of political repression. Acting as an extension of the ruling Awami League, the police force lost its legitimacy, transforming from a law enforcement body into a tool of state control. 

The politicisation of the force has left it paralysed in the post-uprising era, with its ability to function independently and impartially severely compromised.

The judiciary, too, suffered during Hasina's rule. The forced resignation of the Chief Justice and other appellate division justices in the wake of the uprising underscored the judiciary's compromised position under the regime.

While the interim government has taken steps toward judicial reform, forming commissions to investigate and address institutional shortcomings, the path to restoring trust in the judiciary is far from clear. 

Meanwhile, bureaucrats, who were expected to face greater accountability for their partisan roles under Hasina, have yet to face serious repercussions, further highlighting the complex dynamics of the post-uprising transition.

The interim government: Between uprising and reform

The interim government that emerged in the wake of Hasina's fall occupies a precarious position. It is neither a revolutionary government, empowered by radical change, nor a truly neutral caretaker government dedicated solely to overseeing a smooth transition. 

Instead, it finds itself caught between competing demands and pressures from various factions. While six commissions have been formed to propose reforms to the judiciary, constitution, and other critical institutions, these efforts are overshadowed by the mounting pressure from opposition parties demanding immediate elections. 

This tug-of-war between reform and electoral urgency is creating an atmosphere of uncertainty, with no clear roadmap in sight.

The interim government's liberal stance at a time when the nation requires decisive action has emboldened various groups to air their grievances. Long-standing issues of discrimination, which had been suppressed during Hasina's rule, have now come to the fore. 

Protests are erupting across the country as marginalised groups demand redress for the inequalities they faced over the last 16 years. The government's cautious approach to these protests reflects the delicate balance it must maintain, but it also risks alienating those who expect swift and meaningful change.

Political reconfiguration: Evolving alliances and new power struggles

As Bangladesh grapples with the aftermath of Hasina's downfall, its political landscape is undergoing significant reconfiguration. 

Islamist groups, which had been sidelined during the authoritarian years, are now attempting to form alliances and seeking to play a more prominent role in the country's political future. Their growing influence, combined with the re-emergence of the Bangladesh Nationalist Party (BNP) as a key political player, sets the stage for a highly competitive electoral environment.

The Awami League, once the dominant political force under Hasina, is in disarray. The party's internal divisions and loss of credibility have left it struggling to find a coherent path forward. 

Meanwhile, Nobel Laureate Muhammad Yunus, who enjoys strong support from the United States, has emerged as a potential figure of influence. 

However, Yunus is not a traditional strongman, and his success will depend on a variety of factors, including his ability to navigate the complex dynamics between Bangladesh's domestic politics and its international relations.

China, a key player in Bangladesh's development during Hasina's rule, is watching Yunus's growing ties with the West carefully. While Yunus enjoys significant popularity, his pro-Western leanings could complicate Bangladesh's relationship with China, which remains a critical economic and geopolitical partner. His ability to strike a balance between Western support and China's strategic interests will likely determine his future influence in the country.

The road ahead: Uncertainty and hope

As Bangladesh stands at this crossroads, the nation faces a range of possibilities. The potential for meaningful institutional reform exists, but it is far from guaranteed. The interim government must balance the urgent need for elections with the longer-term goal of rebuilding the nation's democratic and institutional foundations. 

The evolving political landscape, with Islamist groups gaining strength, the BNP looking toward elections, and the Awami League in turmoil adds another layer of complexity.

The country's future will depend on how these various forces interact in the coming months. The success of Yunus, the trajectory of Islamist politics, and the ability of the interim government to manage competing pressures will all shape the direction Bangladesh takes. 

What is clear, however, is that the nation stands at a critical moment — one where the decisions made today will have lasting impacts on the future of Bangladesh's democracy, its institutions, and its role on the global stage.

Sketch: TBS

Dr Shafi Mostofa is an Associate Professor of World Religions and Culture at University of Dhaka.

Disclaimer: The views and opinions expressed in this article are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the opinions and views of The Business Standard.