Britain’s make-or-break election
While the Tories are likely to lose power, cleaning up the mess they have left will require honest and courageous leadership
One would hope that the run-up to the United Kingdom's general election on July 4 would feature not just weeks of political insults, dubious statistics, and empty promises but also a serious discussion about the country's current state. While such a discussion is unlikely to make British voters more optimistic, it could help pull the UK out of its current doom loop.
In addition to the UK's diminishing economic prospects following 14 years of Conservative Party rule, the country has also been roiled by two major scandals. One is the Post Office scandal, which involves the wrongful prosecution and imprisonment of hundreds of postmasters for crimes they did not commit. The other concerns recent revelations about the National Health Service's use of infected blood and blood products, which led to thousands of people contracting HIV or hepatitis between the 1970s and the early 1990s. Both are examples of state failure that destroyed lives – and sometimes ended them.
The UK government was once viewed as a model of competent and fair management, but it is impossible to make such a claim with a straight face today. While British governance is undoubtedly better than it appears, and Britons still have many things to be justifiably proud of, the upcoming election offers a unique opportunity to put the country back on the path to economic prosperity.
Given their abysmal economic track record over the past 14 years, it is hardly surprising that the Conservatives are likely to lose power. It would be very difficult for the Tories to argue that things could be worse under Keir Starmer's Labour Party. Since the 2008 financial crisis, which erupted roughly 18 months before former Prime Minister David Cameron assumed office, wage growth has been lower than at any time since the Napoleonic Wars.
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To be sure, Cameron inherited a mountain of economic problems from his Labour predecessors, unlike the stable economy that Tony Blair's Labour inherited from John Major's Conservative government in 1997. But while public spending needed to be reined in to reduce the debt incurred during the 2008 financial crisis, the Tory cuts were probably too severe, as public spending dropped from 44% of GDP in 2007-08 to roughly 38% in 2019, before the COVID-19 pandemic. The Conservatives' austerity policy led to severe reductions in public services, from defence and policing to schools and local governments, and resulted in significant socio-political upheavals, particularly when it came to public-sector pay.
Moreover, despite the cuts and a rise in taxes (which reached their highest level since the 1970s), the UK's national debt has climbed to a record £2.7 trillion ($3.4 trillion). Both Labour and Conservative politicians have promised to increase spending without raising taxes, prompting the International Monetary Fund to question whether existing public spending plans can be maintained.
Fortunately for Prime Minister Rishi Sunak, inflation fell to 2.3% in April as energy prices tumbled. Under former Prime Minister Boris Johnson, the Tories also handled the COVID-19 lockdowns well by effectively paying the wages of those who could not work. But while COVID-19 and Russia's invasion of Ukraine have undoubtedly made it more difficult to rebuild the economy, they do not fully explain the UK's dismal productivity and GDP growth. Simply put, British politicians are arguing over how to cut and distribute slices of a shrinking pie.
While the dreadful legacy of his Conservative predecessors – the morally vacuous Johnson and the reckless Liz Truss – would make it extremely difficult for Sunak to offer a credible vision of a better future, many of his current problems are self-inflicted. For example, he supported Johnson's bid for the Conservative leadership, a decision that reflects poorly on his judgement. Sunak has also been a Euroskeptic since he was a schoolboy and was an early supporter of Brexit.
So, what is to be done? To convince voters that they can lead the UK to a better future, the UK's next political leaders – whether Labour, Conservative, or otherwise – must be honest about the country's current challenges instead of trying to bribe voters or butter them up with cheery platitudes. Britons deserve to know how tough things are going to be and how difficult it will be to turn the economy around.
That means British leaders must outline their plans for addressing the daunting challenges facing the country. First, they need to acknowledge how damaging Brexit has been to the UK's economy and trading prospects, potentially reducing GDP by 5% or more and constraining the government's ability to increase investment.
Second, policymakers must make the case for closer cooperation with European allies on foreign policy, defence, energy, environmental issues, health, and food standards. While this will likely provoke vigorous opposition from those in the tabloid press advocating populist nationalism, it is crucial for the UK to tap into larger markets.
The UK should also engage with its neighbours and other developed countries to manage current and future migration waves from poorer countries. There are other areas of potential cooperation as well, such as social care, where successive British governments have been too afraid to implement an excellent plan that has been on the table for more than a decade.
Crucially, if the UK wants to remain a world leader in research, science, and higher education, it must increase funding for universities and vocational training. Policymakers should also consider empowering municipalities and ensure that support for local authorities does not favour the wealthiest parts of the country over poorer ones – an imbalance that was one of the main factors behind the 2016 Brexit vote.
If all this is too much to expect from politicians vying for voters' trust and democratic legitimacy, then it does not really matter who wins the upcoming election. But for the UK to have any real chance of reversing its decline, it needs leaders willing to stand up for responsible policies – and fast.
Chris Patten, the last British governor of Hong Kong and a former EU commissioner for external affairs, is Chancellor of the University of Oxford and the author of The Hong Kong Diaries.
Disclaimer: This article first appeared on Project Syndicate, and is published by special syndication arrangement.
