Energy transition for net zero future
The World Bank is recognising the production of electricity from uranium fuel as green energy and has agreed to give loans. Based on this, it is clear that solar, wind and nuclear energy are the main sources of future energy
Recently, in a seminar organised by the Bangladesh Student Association of Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT) and the American Association of Bangladeshi Engineers and Architects, I discussed the opportunities and challenges associated with the Rooppur Nuclear Power Plant.
There was considerable interest among the participants to learn about the Rooppur Nuclear Power Plant and the event was attended by numerous individuals, including students from MIT, Harvard, Boston and Northeastern University, as well as engineers, scientists and distinguished personalities from the local community.
The seminar highlighted the importance of secure and uninterrupted power for the development of innovative, knowledge-based, and environmentally friendly technologies in the country. We also discussed how energy security and continuous electricity are essential to building a country that is rich in innovative, knowledge-based and environment-friendly technology.
Although everyone has a positive opinion about solar and wind power, accidents such as those in Chernobyl or Fukushima have made some wary of nuclear power.
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This anxiety among people is the main obstacle to the operation, construction or expansion of nuclear power plants. Studies have shown that residents in the vicinity of nuclear power plants tend to work in favour of nuclear power plants because they have a better understanding of nuclear technology.
Many of the nuclear power plant construction authorities believe that if they try to educate the general public or the professional and civil society about the benefits of nuclear power plants, they can turn against the plant. This idea is not true at all. The reality is the longer they spend in the dark, the bigger the problem will be.
Now let's discuss the main context regarding the energy crisis and climate change. If we look at the current power system master plan in the country, it mentions the utilisation of gas, coal, oil and uranium to achieve the projected demand of 40,000 megawatts of electricity by 2030 with a share of 37%, 40%, 10%, and 3% respectively.
Similarly, for the projected demand of 60,000 megawatts of electricity by 2041, the plan includes 43%, 32%, 2%, and 7% electricity generation from gas, coal, oil and uranium respectively.
The analysis shows that gas and coal will remain the primary sources of electricity generation, while the use of oil will significantly decrease. The share of imported electricity will be improved from 10% to 15%. The contribution of nuclear power to the total electricity generation will not exceed 7%. This is because the reliance is mostly placed on the two units of the Rooppur Nuclear Power Plant, which will provide a total of 2400 megawatts of electricity by 2030.
Additionally, if another 2400 megawatts of electricity can be generated through expansion by 2041, then the total electricity generation from nuclear sources would be 4800 megawatts. Therefore, according to the current plan, there is no possibility of generating more than 7% of the country's total electricity production from nuclear sources.
The energy crisis and electricity problem cannot be solved without import-dependent gas and coal. But the difficulty is that there are issues in this integrated energy power system master plan. The World Bank will no longer provide any loans for building coal-fired power plants due to environmental concerns and so the construction of coal-based power plants will be risky.
On the other hand, the World Bank is recognising the production of electricity from uranium fuel as green energy and has agreed to give loans. Based on this, it is clear that solar, wind and nuclear energy are the main sources of future energy.
Due to investment and research in solar technology, significant progress has been made. As a result, the efficiency of solar cells has increased, and due to increased production and usage, the unit cost of electricity production from solar has also decreased significantly compared to coal and oil.
Similarly, the cost per unit of electricity generation from wind is also low. The problem in this case is sustainable technology to get and store electricity on demand i.e. batteries.
People involved in the field believe that nuclear power fission and fusion will be game-changers by 2040. As I work at MIT on fission-based 4th generation nuclear technologies such as small and micro modular reactors, I can say that these types of reactors are unlikely to have Chernobyl or Fukushima-like consequences.
The initial investment in setting up a reactor will be one-fourth to one-third of the current Generation III+ (Rooppur) reactors. It will take several months to a few years for the construction and the rate of waste production will be much lower, emerging technology is underway to convert spent fuel, known as high-level waste, into low-level waste using the transmutation technique. There will be no need to refuel during the year. There will also be a refuelling facility after 5 or 10 years, which can be deployed in all places as per need, and even in case of emergencies for quick power connection.
Converting natural gas to hydrogen fuel by a chemical process or electrolysis is expensive and uses carbon-emitting electricity. But fourth-generation fission-based nuclear technology can produce clean electricity as well as cost-effective green hydrogen.
Cost-effective hydrogen fuel generation technologies are also being developed through solar and wind technologies. Research is now underway on cost-effective storage and distribution systems for hydrogen fuel. Advanced and sustainable batteries are being developed for hydrogen storage. It is expected that there will be a revolutionary change in this field.
On the other hand, another piece of good news is that for the first time in December last year, US Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory scientists successfully completed a fusion reaction that produced more energy than it cost. This is a major scientific breakthrough that will pave the way for the construction of fusion-based nuclear power plants and the future of clean electricity.
There are no issues of accidents or the production of hazardous radioactive waste associated with this technology. As a result, 33 companies have already been created worldwide for the construction of fusion-based experimental nuclear power plants, and some companies have also started construction work. They have announced that commercial production will be achieved by the year 2040. The focus now is on technology refinement, accessibility and sustainability.
Hydrogen is the main fuel for fusion-based nuclear power plants. Seawater is the main source of this hydrogen, which will never run out of supply and will not contribute to climate warming. That's why many argue that in the future, all the sources of power generation by burning coal, oil and gas will be replaced by modern nuclear technology.
It should be noted that natural disasters caused by climate change will be much more severe than radiation risks from nuclear power plants and radioactive waste.
By the middle of the 21st century, we hope for environmentally friendly and sustainable electricity production in all sectors of the economy without the burning of fossil fuels. At that time, there may be no animosity with any other country over oil or gas resources, and it will be used as sources of chemicals and energy for industries other than electricity.
Projecting the advanced technologies in the energy policy and electricity master plan will result in step-by-step execution in a timely manner. To have an adequate understanding of these technologies, research, curriculum development and the creation of a knowledgeable workforce are necessary.
Dr Md Shafiqul Islam is a Visiting Professor and Fulbright Scholar, the Department of Nuclear Science and Engineering, Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT) and the University of Dhaka. Email: [email protected]; [email protected]
Disclaimer: The views and opinions expressed in this article are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the opinions and views of The Business Standard.
