A glimpse into Transformational Adaptation within the UAE Consensus
Transformational adaptation is characterised by scalability, temporality, persistence, and the extent of systemic change, which are intricately linked with the socio-ecological space. However, more evidence of what TA on the ground looks like is needed to close the gap between theory and practice
The world has embarked on an emission trajectory that will most likely exceed the 1.5-degree target set by the Paris Agreement in 2015. Consequently, the impacts of climate change are likely to be many times more distressing for the vulnerable populations of developing nations than previously expected, which demands for transformational adaptation (TA).
Reaffirmation of the 1.5-degree target in the UAE Consensus by the end of COP28 and the operationalisation of the Loss and Damage (LnD) Fund at the very beginning of COP28 mark two positive outcomes in the climate change policy arena. Nonetheless, many say that the adaptation agenda took a backseat in this COP.
The latest Adaptation Gap Report 2023 highlighted severe shortages in the current adaptation finance available, with the needs being 10 to 18 times greater. The first-ever Global Stocktake (GST), concluded at COP28, 'noted with alarm and serious concern' that under current levels of implementation, these gaps will continue to grow. Accordingly, 'it calls for urgent, incremental, transformational, and country-driven adaptation action based on different national circumstances'.
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'Transformational adaptation' (TA), the third phase of adaptation to climate change, has been around in theory since the late 2000s but has gained traction in recent years. Given the worsening impacts of climate change, TA is imperative to building and sustain community resilience. Though there is no universally accepted definition of TA, according to the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), it is 'adaptation that changes the fundamental attributes of a system in response to climate change and its effects'.
TA is characterised by scalability, temporality, persistence, and the extent of systemic change, being intricately linked with the socio-ecological space. However, more evidence of what TA on the ground looks like is needed to close the gap between theory and practice.
The COP28 side event organised by ICCCAD and CIMMYT to launch the project 'Paribartan' (participatory action research on locally-led iterative learning and inclusive business models for adaptive transformation in Bangladesh polders) marked the beginning of an effort to foster locally-led transformational adaptation in coastal regions of Bangladesh, with a focus on agriculture.
The project aims to employ adaptive learning approaches to empower the local people with framing processes, tools, and methods that can help them monitor, learn, and adjust their farming practices consistently with the accelerating impacts of climate change. The Director General of CIMMYT, Dr. Bram Govaerts, stated at the event that "the project will enable communities to move from data to information to decision-making to decision-taking." Additionally, the project aims to form locally-led organisations with yearly adaptation targets supported by business models for sustained collective and individual adaptive action.
Locally Led Adaptation (LLA) for TA: Based on arguments for and against LLA being an enabler of TA, the areas of conflict include control of financial resources and the mode of governance, creating institutional barriers. The COP28 side event called for changes in the modalities of climate financing to enable TA.
According to Ritu Bharadwaj, International Institute of Environment and Development (IIED), the climate finance architecture needs to be restructured, with the funds directly devolved into the banks of the local communities. A prerequisite is strong local institutions that can translate the fund's usage into adaptive change.
"Accountability is required at both the global and local levels, and the current architecture requires a 'systems' change, whereby governments need to rethink their climate finance methodologies", according to Anju Sharma of the Global Center on Adaptation (GCA).
TA in the Global Goal on Adaptation (GGA)
Under Article 7.1 of the Paris Agreement, the Global Goal on Adaptation (GGA) was established to track and guide collective progress toward adaptation. To define its operational details, the two-year-long Glasgow-Sharm el-Sheikh (GlaSS) Work Programme was launched at COP26 and concluded at COP28.
The GGA framework currently sets seven targets, which are largely thematic but has yet to define specific indicators and metrics under each. With an eye on TA, the Dubai outcome on GGA emphasised strengthening efforts for both 'long-term transformational and incremental adaptation'. It recognised the challenges to implementing transformational adaptation in countries that have significant capacity constraints.
It has launched the two-year UAE-Belém work programme, requesting clarification on how:
Transformational adaptation is defined and understood at different spatial scales and sectors. Progress in planning and implementing transformational adaptation approaches might be assessed at the global level.
The first call for submissions from parties and observers for the work programme closed in March 2024. For details, visit the UNFCCC Submission Portal.
Way Forward
Understanding TA better and tracking its success is challenging, given the context-specific nature of adaptation. With growing global attention, national and local governments may set the stage for enabling TA through policies, agendas, and work programs.
The "Paribartan Project" is a part of this discourse that may offer possible pathways for Bangladesh. The GGA has recognised the importance of the iterative adaptation cycle being an integral part of TA. Though global progress on adaptation is slow, national efforts and actions should not and cannot wait to foster TA efforts.
Madiha Chowdhury is working in the International Centre for Climate Change and Development (ICCCAD) as a Senior Research Officer. Can be reached at [email protected]
Juel Mahmud is working in the International Centre for Climate Change and Development (ICCCAD) as a Programme Coordinator. Can be reached at [email protected]
TS Amjath-Babu is working in the International Maize and Wheat Improvement Center (CIMMYT) as an Agricultural Economist. Can be reached at [email protected]
Disclaimer: The views and opinions expressed in this article are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the opinions and views of The Business Standard.
