Will North Korea draw lessons from Hamas-Israel conflict?: Implications for South Korea

In recent times, several prominent South Korean officials have drawn comparisons between the surprise attacks conducted by Hamas on Israel and the potential threat posed by North Korea. 

This has led to concerns that the Democratic People's Republic of Korea (DPRK) may be "directly or indirectly" linked to the tactics employed by the Palestinian military group and might consider using them in a "surprise invasion of South Korea."

Military experts suggest that Pyongyang has likely taken note of how Hamas exploited vulnerabilities in Israel's defences, particularly through a rocket barrage that overwhelmed its missile interceptors. 

However, other researchers emphasise fundamental differences between the situations on the Korean Peninsula and in the Middle East, highlighting that Israel's strong response serves as a reminder to North Korea of the risks associated with provoking a counterattack from the United States and South Korea.

South Korean Defense Minister Shin Won-shik has pointed to Hamas' attack on Israel to support his argument for reconsidering the inter-Korean Comprehensive Military Agreement. 

He suggests that had Israel continued its surveillance efforts through aircraft and unmanned aerial vehicles, it might have avoided significant damage. 

Furthermore, he raised concerns about the no-fly zone established by the Comprehensive Military Agreement, which limits surveillance in North Korea's border region.

Unification Minister Kim Yung-ho has also stressed the need for South Korea to equip its military with better reconnaissance capabilities, particularly after witnessing how Hamas' rocket strikes managed to penetrate Israel's defense system. 

South Korea's Joint Chiefs of Staff (JCS) have assessed that North Korea could potentially employ "surprise attacks employing tactics reminiscent of Hamas," such as seizing border areas forcefully, taking hostages, and pushing for negotiations.

Experts suggest that the North Korean military may indeed be drawing lessons from Hamas' attack, particularly concerning the cost-effectiveness of small drones against military targets. 

Motorised paragliders have also been noted as surprisingly effective infiltration tools. However, some argue that the introduction of remote sensing technologies and artificial intelligence-based surveillance may create a "false sense of security" that cannot effectively deal with large-scale surprise attacks.

Bruce Bennett, a researcher at the RAND Corporation, suggests that the Hamas attacks on Israel reinforce the lessons Pyongyang learned in 2010 after the sinking of the ROKS Cheonan, where 46 South Korean sailors were killed by what appeared to be a North Korean torpedo. 

From North Korea's perspective, it is better off engaging in military activities that are either "below the ROK attack response level" or "plausibly deniable," making it difficult for South Korea to justify retaliation.

Hamas' success in overwhelming Israel's Iron Dome with thousands of rocket strikes also prompts South Korea to reevaluate the effectiveness of its defence systems against North Korean missiles. 

While missile-based interceptors face challenges in detecting and intercepting small drones, Bruce Bennett argues that such criticism misses the point. Having an effective limited defence system is crucial for deterring North Korean limited attacks.

In summary, the potential lessons drawn by North Korea from the Hamas-Israel conflict have raised concerns in South Korea about the DPRK's intentions and capabilities. 

While there are similarities in tactics, the fundamental differences between the two regions and their objectives make direct comparisons complex. 

The focus on self-preservation and political recognition by North Korea's leadership shapes its approach, which may differ significantly from Hamas' goals and strategies in the Middle East.