2024 India election: BJP falls short, needs allies to govern
Modi's BJP-led NDA alliance is leading in just under 300 seats, while Congress-led INDIA bloc is ahead in about 234. A party or coalition needs 272 seats to win a majority in the 543-member Lok Sabha, the lower house of India's parliament
- Official results show Modi's BJP-led NDA alliance won 296 seats, Congress-led INDIA bloc 231 seats
- A party or coalition needs 272 seats to cross the majority mark in the 543-member Lok Sabha, the lower house of India's parliament
- Prime Minister Modi's NDA alliance is far short of the 400 he set out to win
- NDA alliance is leading in just under 300 seats, while Congress-led INDIA bloc is ahead in about 234.
- Despite being behind, opposition leaders have not ruled out talks on forming their own governing coalition
- The world's biggest election was held in seven phases over six weeks with almost a billion people registered to vote
Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi won a third term in power on Tuesday (4 June), but he will be dependent on allies as the BJP fell almost 32 short of the halfway mark of 272 seats in the Lok Sabha. The BJP-led National Democratic Alliance (NDA) won 291 seats against the Congress-led INDIA bloc's 234 seats. The Congress won 99 seats compared to 52 in 2019.
The BJP encountered setbacks in its strongholds, resulting in lower seat counts in Uttar Pradesh and Rajasthan. Despite limited gains in southern states, its hopes of expanding in West Bengal were thwarted. However, Odisha followed the BJP's script, allowing the party to rise to power for the first time and secure victories in 19 out of 21 Lok Sabha seats.
In contrast, the Congress party's unprecedented outreach to Other Backward Classes (OBC) voters, in alliance with the Samajwadi Party, paid off handsomely in Uttar Pradesh. The alliance secured 44 seats, reducing the BJP's tally from its previous 62 seats in 2019. Meanwhile, in Bihar, the Congress-RJD alliance failed to inspire voters, and the NDA held its ground.
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In 2019, Modi's BJP alone won 303 seats, of which 224 were won with 50%-plus votes, galvanising chances of his return the next time around. The NDA won 353 seats in 2019.
Here are the latest updates till 2:00am Monday (5 June) on the mammoth seven-phase election — the world's largest democratic exercise — which began on 19 April and ended on Saturday (1 June).
2:00am (5 June)
Mamata's Trinamool wins big in West Bengal, bags 29 seats, restricts BJP to 12
The Trinamool Congress (TMC) registered a massive victory in the 2024 Lok Sabha polls in West Bengal, winning 29 of the 42 Lok Sabha seats till reports last came in on Tuesday evening, and final results are awaited,, reports The Hindu.
Not only did the State's ruling party win a majority of seats in the southern part of the State, sweeping Gangetic West Bengal as well as seats in and around Kolkata, it also made a dent in the BJP strongholds in north Bengal and the Jangalmahal region, reducing the saffron party to 12 seats.
The TMC improved its tally from 22 Lok Sabha seats in 2019 to 29 seats in 2024, whereas the BJP's numbers dropped from 18 to 12. The State's ruling party registered a vote share of about 46%, whereas the BJP recorded a vote share of 38%.
11:20pm
INDIA alliance makes a comeback in several Hindi heartland states: Times of India
The INDIA alliance staged a remarkable resurgence in several politically significant Hindi heartland states on Tuesday. The Samajwadi Party, a constituent of the alliance, made substantial gains in Uttar Pradesh, while the bloc also progressed in Rajasthan, Bihar, Haryana, and Jharkhand, the Times of India reports.
However, despite the INDIA alliance's strong showing, Narendra Modi's BJP-led alliance is poised to secure a third consecutive term in power, albeit without the overwhelming majority predicted by various exit polls. Results and trends indicate that the National Democratic Alliance is set to secure 300 Lok Sabha seats, while the INDIA alliance is expected to have a tally of 234.
The INDIA alliance's performance in Uttar Pradesh was particularly surprising, TOI writes, adding that with the Samajwadi Party winning 30 seats and leading in seven more, while the Congress emerged victorious in six constituencies. The BJP won 29 seats and is leading in four, with its allies also securing a few victories. This marks a significant shift from the BJP's near-sweep of the state in the 2014 and 2019 polls.
The INDIA alliance also made notable gains in Rajasthan, Haryana, Bihar, and Jharkhand. However, it failed to spring any surprises in Madhya Pradesh, Delhi, Uttarakhand, and Chhattisgarh, where the NDA maintained its dominance.
In Rajasthan, the BJP won 14 seats, while the Congress secured eight, with a few other parties also winning one seat each. In Bihar, the RJD and Congress made inroads, while the NDA still managed to win a majority of the seats. Haryana saw both the Congress and BJP winning three seats each and leading in two more. In Jharkhand, the Congress and JMM won one and three seats, respectively, while the BJP won six and is leading in two more.
The NDA continued its strong performance in Madhya Pradesh, Himachal Pradesh, Uttarakhand, Delhi, and Chhattisgarh. The BJP won all 29 seats in Madhya Pradesh and all four seats in Himachal Pradesh. In Delhi, it won five seats and is leading in two, while in Uttarakhand, it won three seats and is leading in the remaining two. In Chhattisgarh, the BJP won eight seats and is leading in two more, while the Congress won one seat.
Overall, the Hindi heartland states account for 225 Lok Sabha seats, and the INDIA alliance's performance in these states has been a significant development in the 2023 Lok Sabha elections.
9:15pm
'Mandate is victory of the biggest democracy in the world', says PM Modi
Prime Minister Narendra Modi, following the NDA's victory in the Lok Sabha polls, started addressing the party workers at the BJP headquarters in New Delhi.
"On this day, for the third time in a row, an NDA government is set to be formed. The people of the country have placed their entire faith in the BJP and the NDA. This victory is the victory of the biggest democracy in the world," he said.
8:30pm
BJP leads in 2 seats in Jammu & Kashmir
BJP is leading in two of the five Lok Sabha seats in Jammu & Kashmir.
This is the first election here since the territory's special status was revoked and its statehood withdrawn in 2019.
8:05pm
People have placed faith in NDA for 3rd time, this is a historical feat: PM Modi
With the NDA poised to form the government for a third consecutive time, bagging at least 290 seats, Prime Minister Narendra Modi called it a "historic feat".
"People have placed their faith in NDA, for a third consecutive time! This is a historical feat in India's history. I bow to the Janata Janardan for this affection and assure them that we will continue the good work done in the last decade to keep fulfilling the aspirations of people," he wrote on X.
7:20pm
Reuters commentary: India may no longer be Narendra Modi's
By Shritama Bose, India columnist for Breakingviews
India may no longer be Narendra Modi's. Indians handed the 73-year-old Modi a chance to lead the country for another five years but likely robbed his Hindu nationalist Bharatiya Janata Party of its absolute majority, and him of a strong grip over the world's fifth-largest economy. Even if he is able to form the next government, it ends a decade of extraordinary stability.
The BJP was leading in 238 seats in the 543-member lower house of Parliament as of 1000 GMT on Tuesday, or about 295 with its partners, failing to hit the halfway mark on its own. The opposition INDIA alliance led by Rahul Gandhi's centrist Congress party was leading in 231 seats. Should Modi's regional allies ditch him, India could see a new leader.
There are multiple reasons for the BJP to cede seats. Voters tend to turn on incumbent politicians. What's more, India's world-beating GDP growth is not trickling down to the masses fast enough: after a decade of Modi, most of the population are still poor enough to qualify for the government's free food scheme – laying bare the deep distress in rural incomes.
7:10pm
'Whatever the alliance decides': Rahul Gandhi on forming govt or sit in opposition
Replying to a question on if the Congress party would try to form government or sit in opposition, Rahul Gandhi says:
"We are going to have a meeting with our partners -- the INDIA alliance partners -- and I believe that is tomorrow. These questions will be raised there and it will be answered there. We respect our alliance partners and we are not going to make statements in the press without asking them their opinion... It's a fine line, whatever the alliance decides, we will take action on that."
6:50pm
'Modi should resign', says Mamata
"These results have shown that Modi has lost all credibility and he should immediately resign. A lot of people underestimated me this time. I don't understand share market much, but have you seen the share market today?," Mamata said in a press conference.
6:40pm
Poll results showed people of India do not want PM Modi, Amit Shah to run country, says Rahul Gandhi
As the INDIA bloc managed to halt the BJP's march towards majority, Congress leader Rahul Gandhi came out to hit out at the BJP, saying that the mandate today was a clear indication that the people of the country do not want to PM Modi and Amit Shah to run the country.
6:25pm
People's mandate a win for democracy and against PM Modi, says Kharge
As the INDIA bloc managed to halt the BJP's march towards majority, Congress president Mallikarjun Kharge said that the people's mandate is a win for the people of the country and the democracy.
6:00pm
Modi winning Varanasi but victory margin set to decline from 2014, 2019
Prime Minister Narendra Modi is set to win the Varanasi Lok Sabha seat for the third time in a row, and is leading with a margin of 1,39,029 votes at 2pm Tuesday, according to Election Commission data. He has got a total of 5,17,370 votes so far while his nearest rival, Uttar Pradesh Congress chief Ajay Rai, has got 3,78,341.
In 2019, the prime minister had bagged a total of 6,74,664 votes, a margin of 4.79 lakh over his nearest rival.
The BSP's Ather Jamal Lari is a distant third, with only 27,433 votes, which suggests a consolidation of anti-BJP votes in favour of the INDIA alliance candidate Ajay Rai.
5:35pm
Kingmakers: The nine lives of Nitish Kumar, Chandrababu Naidu
Nitish Kumar in Bihar and Chandrababu Naidu in Andhra Pradesh whose parties, the Janata Dal United (JDU) and Telugu Desam Party (TDP) respectively, could well be playing a critical, vital role in the formation of a new government.
Call them King-Makers, or even future Kings, the political cards will soon be on the table before June 4th passes into history. Already Prime Minister Narendra Modi and Home Minister Amit Shah have dialled Naidu – presumably to discuss the political health of the National Democratic Alliance (NDA).
Both these regional leaders are an integral part of the NDA. But with the INDIA alliance gaining strength, with every passing hour, there are more coalition possibilities being thrown up, discussed openly in TV studios and behind closed doors in political parties.
5:20pm
Congress reaching out to leaders outside NDA
With the Congress getting close to 100 seats in the Lok Sabha and the INDIA alliance narrowing the gap between the government and the Opposition with a difference of just 50-odd seats, India's grand old party has started making overtures to those outside the National Democratic Alliance (NDA) grouping and even those within.
From Eknath Shinde to Chandrababu Naidu, the outreach to leaders is taking place behind the scenes, said people aware of the matter.
HT has learnt that Congress president Mallikarjun Kharge has reached out to Naidu's Telugu Desam Party (TDP), Nitish Kumar's Janata Dal (United) or JD(U) and Naveen Patnaik's Biju Janata Dal (BJD), apart from the Lok Janshakti Party (Ram Vilas), or LJP, led by Chirag Paswan.
5:15pm
Congress breaks Gujarat jinx, opens account after a decade
Congress's Geniben Thakor won Gujarat's Banaskantha Lok Sabha seat on Tuesday defeating Rekha Chaudhary of BJP, which was aiming to win all 26 seats in Gujarat for a third time, by 30,000 votes.
Early trends showed the Congress was leading on four seats in Gujarat but eventually Thakor emerged as the lone winner from her party.
The Congress failed to win any seats in Gujarat, the home state of Prime Minister Narendra Modi and Union home minister Amit Shah, in the 2014 and 2019 Lok Sabha polls.
5:05pm
Where have the opposition consolidated?
Uttar Pradesh proved to be a shocker for the BJP where the INDIA bloc, fuelled by Akhilesh Yadav's SP, is leading in 43 seats, reports Indian Express.
Another state where the BJP has lost considerable ground in West Bengal where the TMC has been able to consolidate its lead in at least 32 seats.
Maharashtra continues to be another state where the opposition has gained considerable ground, especially after the BJP split up the two regional heavyweights — Shiv Sena and the NCP. The opposition here stands at 30 seats, while the NDA trails with just 17 seats.
4:45pm
'Unemployment trumped BJP in a way they didn't expect'
Political analyst Sanjay Kapoor told Al Jazeera that it seemed like a done deal for the BJP, but results did not follow what was projected.
"They gave the impression that they will romp through on the glow of the Ram temple that they built in Ayodhya," he said.
"But as the campaign started warming up and people started going to the ground, talking to reporters – they realised there were many compelling issues like price rise, like cost of living," he also said.
"And the most compelling was the unemployment and that trumped the BJP in a way they did not expect."
4:35pm
BJP's bet on Modi's popularity 'backfired'
Early leads in the election are showing fewer seats for the BJP than projected despite Modi being the frontman of the electoral campaign.
"They went from using Modi as the main argument to using him as the sole argument," political analyst Gilles Verniers told Al Jazeera. "And that backfired."
While Modi is likely to win a third term in office, the mega election cast as a referendum on his personality seems to be a defeat for the prime minister.
The BJP is now likely to retain a majority as an alliance, thanks to the Janata Dal-United and the Telugu Desam Party, but this means that they will be beholden to their coalition partners for the first time.
"This is a setback," Verniers said. "The options [before the BJP] now are to be more conciliatory and share power, or to double down on authoritarianism, which is the path they have taken over the past few years."
4:15pm
Parleys begin
The opposition INDIA bloc has reversed all exit poll predictions, leading in at least 228 seats, according to the latest numbers. However, despite a stiff contest, the BJP-led NDA is inching closer towards the 300-mark, standing at 297 at the moment.
As the BJP failed to reach the majority mark on its own, parleys began on their front with TDP chief Chandrababu Naidu getting calls from Prime Minister Narendra Modi and Union Home Minister Amit Shah, reports Indian Express.
The opposition's INDIA bloc, too, after its stellar fightback, will be looking to make further gains.
3:45pm
BJP trailing in Faizabad constituency where Ayodhya is located
Counting trends showed BJP trailing in the Faizabad constituency. The city Ayodhya is located in what was formerly known as Faizabad district.
Faizabad district was officially renamed Ayodhya in 2018. However, the Lok Sabha seat is still called Faizabad.
More than five hours after counting started, BJP's candidate Lallu Singh is trailing behind Samajwadi Party candidate Awadhesh Prasad. The lead margin was around 12,778 votes as of 2:30pm.
3:25pm
Mumbai stocks sink more than 7% in afternoon trade
Shares in Mumbai have sank more than seven percent in the afternoon as vote counting appeared to show Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi's party would not win as big a majority as first thought in national elections.
The benchmark Sensex index tumbled 7.22%, or 5,522.98 points, to 70,945.80, having rallied more than three percent on Monday when exit polls suggested he was on course for a landslide.
3:10pm
Election officials take precaution against high heat
Temperatures in the Indian capital were down on Tuesday from highs in the past week of 45 degrees Celsius (113 degrees Fahrenheit), but election officials and political parties have taken precautions nonetheless as votes are being counted.
Workers carried cases of water into air-conditioned counting stations in New Delhi early in the morning in preparation, while tents outside for security personnel, political parties and others were outfitted with industrial evaporative coolers.
3pm
BJP sweeping the heartland state of Madhya Pradesh
It's a bright spot for Prime Minister Modi's party on a day when it grapples with the prospect that its might lose its parliamentary majority, reports Al-Jazeera
In the heartland state of Madhya Pradesh, the BJP is sweeping all 29 seats according to the latest election commission leads data. It had won 28 seats in 2019, with the Congress winning the remaining one.
2:35pm
Current leads show exit polls 'not very reliable'
The exit polls were "very much off the mark," analyst Jagdeep Chhokar has told Al Jazeera.
"What this tells us … is that the exit polling agencies, and people who conduct these polls are perhaps not very reliable," said Chhokar, a former professor at the Indian Institute of Management.
"They may be biased in favour of a party or the person who commissioned these polls, which actually puts their authenticity or integrity in question."
At least seven exit polls released by Indian media organisations predicted that the BJP and its allies would win 350-380 seats of the 543 in the Lok Sabha. Currently, the BJP and its allies are ahead in 286 seats.
2:26pm
BJP's Manju Devi wins from Jaipur seat
BJP's Manju Sharma has won the Jaipur seat from Rajasthan, reports The Indian Express.
She was fighting against Pratap Singh Kachariyawas of the Congress.
According to the latest Election Commission trends, fourteen BJP candidates, including Lok Sabha Speaker Om Birla and union ministers Arjun Ram Meghwal and Bhupendra Yadav, are leading in Rajasthan, while the Congress is ahead in eight seats.
2:15pm
West Bengal election results: Mamata's TMC leading in 33 seats
The trends that emerged from several rounds of counting today proved all exit poll predictions wrong as the Trinamool candidates are widening gap with their BJP rivals.
The exit polls predicted a major surprise in West Bengal for the ruling Trinamool but the surprise came from the incumbent party as it went on to lead in 33 seats. If the trends hold true, BJP's performance dipped in 2024.
Trinamool had rejected the exit polls which gave a clear mandate to the BJP. "It is absolutely vague, absolutely fake. How is the media showing who will win which seat? How much money have they taken? I don't believe the calculations. I will ask my workers to be strong and do the counting properly. We will get double of what the media has projected. I will not put a number. But I can tell you: we worked on the ground and never felt that the people will not vote for us," Mamata Banerjee said.
1.50pm
Congress sees increase in vote share
Karnataka's vote share has increased for the Congress by 13% from 32% to 45%. BJP is down from 51% to 44%. JD(S) has done well for a party contesting only three seats compared to seven in 2019. It has got 8% compared to 10% in 2019.
1:30pm
The BJP sweep in Madhya Pradesh
The BJP has retained its bastion of Madhya Pradesh, comfortably leading in all 29 seats. The trends, however, remain concerning for the Congress as their sole MP from Chhindwara, Nakul Nath, is trailing.
1:15pm
Modi ahead but markets plunge as landslide predictions fade
Indian stocks tanked the most in four years on Tuesday, as vote counting suggested Prime Minister Narendra Modi's Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP)-led alliance is unlikely to win an overwhelming majority as predicted by exit polls.
Modi's bloc looked set to secure a majority in early vote counting in the general election on Tuesday, but the numbers were well short of the landslide predicted in exit polls.
The Nifty index dropped as much as 5.43% to 22,000.60 points while the BSE index fell to a low of 72,337.34 points, down 5.4% on the day. That was the biggest fall since April 2020 and pulled stocks sharply away from record highs struck a day earlier.
Among the big names leading now in the elections are Rahul Gandhi in Wayanad and Rajiv Chandrasekhar in Thiruvananthapuram, who leads Congress's Shashi Tharoor.
Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi leads in Varanasi, while Akhilesh Yadav is ahead in Kannauj.
The NDA has also been performing well in Andhra Pradesh and West Bengal, which may be key to the BJP's crossing its 400-seat target.
The first votes counted are postal ballots, which are paper ballots, mostly cast by troops serving outside their home constituencies or officials away from home on election duty.
Postal ballots often turn out to be a key decider. If Narendra Modi returns to power, he will be the only PM after Jawaharlal Nehru to return to form the government for a third consecutive time.
This year, postal votes were also offered to voters over 85 years of age and people with disabilities to allow them to vote from home.
TV exit polls broadcast after voting ended on 1 June projected a big win for Modi, but exit polls have often got election outcomes wrong in India. Nearly one billion people were registered to vote, of which 642 million turned out.
However, if Modi's victory is confirmed, his BJP will have triumphed in a vitriolic campaign in which parties accused each other of religious bias and of posing a threat to sections of the population.
Investors have already cheered the prospects of another Modi term, expecting it to deliver further years of strong economic growth and pro-business reforms, while a possible two-thirds majority in parliament could allow major changes to the constitution, rivals and critics fear.
"The next government's main task will be to set India on the path of getting rich before it ages," the Times of India newspaper said in an editorial on Tuesday, referring to the young, working age population in the world's most populous nation. "The clock's ticking."
India stock futures edged higher and the rupee was steady before the count began at 8:00 a.m. (0230 GMT) on Tuesday. The NIFTY 50 index futures rose 0.21% in early trade, according to NSE International Exchange data, and was looking at another record high open.
TV exit polls released on Saturday after voting ended projected the BJP-led National Democratic Alliance could win a two-thirds majority in the 543-member lower house of parliament.
Several major polls projected the BJP alone could win more than the 303 it won in 2019.
