Explainer: Why and how Iran launched the unprecedented attack on Israel

On Sunday (14 April) night, Iran launched over 300 drones and missiles targeting Israel in retaliation for an earlier strike on the Iranian consulate in Damascus. This was the largest drone attack by any country in the world.

Despite being archenemies for almost half a century, this was the first time that Iran directly attacked Israel. While the large-scale attack may have passed with relatively little damage, it marks a significant transformation in the conflict between the two enemies.

Here are the factors - military, political and economic- Iran might have taken into considerations before commencing the strike.

Politics

The massive operation against Israel has been dubbed as 'True Promise' by Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC).

According to Maziar Motamedi, a Tehran-based journalist working for Al Jazeera, in an analysis wrote that the name of the operation was chosen to show that top leaders in Tehran, including Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, intend to make good on their vows of "punishment" for attacks by Israel and others.

Earlier on 1 April, an Israeli strike on the Iranian consulate in Damascus killed seven IRGC members, including two generals in charge of leading operations in Syria and Lebanon, along with six other people.

Maziar writes that the Israeli attack was "mainly aimed at strengthening Iran's deterrence, which critics said had been compromised after increasingly confrontational policies and military strikes by the United States and its allies across the region, especially following the January 2020 assassination of top general Qassem Soleimani in Iraq."

Iranian officials also appeared to have exercised a degree of "strategic patience" after the late December assassination of another top IRGC commander in Syria, Razi Mousavi, in an Israeli air raid amid the fallout of the war on Gaza.

"Inaction, lower-grade strikes, or being content with military action through the "axis of resistance" of aligned groups across the region would in this vein be viewed as too costly for Iran both locally and abroad," writes Maziar.

That is true even as Tehran recognises that Israel and the embattled government of Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu may see benefits in escalating tensions across the region and forcing the US military into taking more action against Iran.

The unprecedented Iranian attacks briefly diverted global attention from the tragic deaths of thousands of women and children in the Gaza Strip.

The attack also means that Iran could potentially yield soft power advantages in the Muslim-world in the long term, especially when compared to other regional powers.

Despite the devastation in Gaza, Saudi Arabia has not ruled out normalising relations with Israel while Turkey only recently restricted some exports to Israel after the Israeli government denied permission for aid airdrops to the besieged enclave, where infants are suffering from starvation. Both Saudi Arabia and Turkey have been vocal critics of Israel's actions in Gaza.

At the United Nations Security Council, Iran could present plausible arguments, given that attacks on diplomatic missions violate the Vienna Convention. Additionally, Article 51 of the UN Charter recognizes the 'inherent right' of self-defense—a principle Israel has heavily relied upon since the beginning of the Gaza conflict."

Military firsts for Iran

While Iran has not officially confirmed the exact number of drones, ballistic missiles, and cruise missiles used in the attack on Israel, the Israeli military reported that more than 300 projectiles were launched. These Iranian drones have garnered international attention in recent years, particularly following Russia's invasion of Ukraine. Ukrainian officials assert that Russian military-operated Shahed drones, designed by Iran, continue to be deployed over their territory.

The attack on Israel involved Shahed-136 kamikaze drones, equipped with relatively small warheads weighing around 50 kg (110 pounds), as stated by Iranian state television. Additionally, Telegram channels affiliated with the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) indicated that the Shahed-238, powered by a turbojet engine instead of the propeller used in the 136 model, was also part of the assault. The Shahed-238 sacrifices some maneuverability for significantly higher speeds, potentially reaching up to 600 km/h (372 mph).

Iran has long maintained the largest and most diverse missile arsenal in the Middle East, but this attack represents the most extensive test of its capabilities to date.

State television further revealed that the Emad long-range ballistic missile and the Paveh cruise missile were employed in the attack on Israel. Although Iran possesses the Fattah hypersonic ballistic missile, capable of reaching Israel in as little as seven minutes, there is no evidence that these missiles were used in the early Sunday strikes.

In a complex operation spanning several hours, Iran successfully executed its largest-ever drone and missile strikes, covering considerable distances in a real military scenario.

"The operation achieved a level of success that exceeded our expectations," said IRGC commander-in-chief Hossein Salami, adding that the projectiles only targeted military sites, including the Nevatim airbase in the Negev desert that was allegedly used to launch the Israeli strikes on the Iranian consulate in Syria.

Economic effects

The economic impact of the historic attacks on Iran was likely overshadowed by the significant political and military considerations that Iranian leaders weighed as they planned the offensive.

While the attacks occurred almost two weeks after the consulate attack, their immediate effect was evident in local markets. Foreign currencies surged as anxiety grew over the potential escalation of conflict into a regional war.

Iran's national currency, the rial, hit an all-time low of approximately 670,000 per US dollar before experiencing a slight recovery.

In Tehran and other markets, there has been a notable decline in currency and gold transactions, reflecting an atmosphere of caution.

Additionally, the Tehran prosecutor's office initiated legal action against an unnamed journalist and the Jahan-e Sanat newspaper for allegedly disturbing the country's psychological security and economic climate.