Belarus election likely extends Lukashenko's 30-year authoritarian rule

The upcoming Belarusian election is set to extend the 30-year rule of Alexander Lukashenko, who is often referred to as "Europe's last dictator."

In the 2020 presidential election, Lukashenko claimed an 80% victory, leading to accusations of fraud, widespread protests, and a brutal crackdown that saw thousands arrested, reports AP.

To prevent a repeat of such unrest, Lukashenko has moved the 2025 election from August to the colder month of January, when protests are less likely.

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With many of his political rivals either imprisoned or living in exile, the 70-year-old Lukashenko is poised for a seventh term, solidifying his position as the only leader most Belarusians have known since the Soviet Union's dissolution.

Belarus, once part of the Soviet Union, has a population of 9 million and is located between Russia, Ukraine, and NATO member states. Its close relationship with Russia and President Vladimir Putin has been central to Lukashenko's rule, with Belarus providing military support, including allowing Russian forces to invade Ukraine in 2022 and hosting Russian nuclear weapons.

Lukashenko first took office in 1994, capitalising on public frustration over the economic collapse following post-Soviet reforms. He has maintained power through heavy reliance on Russian subsidies and has drawn criticism for his authoritarian methods, including suppressing dissent and holding elections the West deems unfair. His admiration for the Soviet Union is evident, as he has reintroduced Soviet-era economic controls and sought to reduce the prominence of the Belarusian language in favour of Russian.

While Lukashenko occasionally tried to ease repression to court Western approval, such gestures ended after the 2020 election, which was widely regarded as fraudulent. Following mass protests, authorities conducted a sweeping crackdown, arresting tens of thousands and closing independent media and NGOs, drawing sanctions from the West. Many opposition figures are either imprisoned or in exile, with Belarus reportedly holding around 1,300 political prisoners.

Ahead of this election, Lukashenko moved the election date to January, citing the need to engage in "strategic planning," though critics argue it is to avoid protests in the winter. In an attempt to ease pressure, he pardoned 250 people deemed political prisoners but has continued to arrest those perceived as dissenters.

Unlike the previous election, Lukashenko faces minimal opposition this time, as most challengers have been barred from running. Early voting began on Tuesday, with the election concluding on Sunday. Exiled opposition leader Sviatlana Tsikhanouskaya has condemned the election as a farce and called for a boycott.

Lukashenko's ties to Russia have strengthened, with a December 2024 treaty allowing Russian nuclear weapons to be stationed in Belarus. This agreement, alongside Russia's new nuclear strategy, places Belarus under Russia's nuclear umbrella, increasing its strategic importance amid the ongoing conflict with Ukraine.