Can a new US administration bring hope for peace in Gaza?
Democratic candidate Kamala Harris and Republican candidate Donald Trump have markedly different views on the Israeli-Palestinian conflict
The 2024 US presidential election is gearing up to be a pivotal moment for the fate of Palestine, especially the people of Gaza. The high-stakes election's outcome will not only affect domestic policies but could also reshape US foreign policy in the Middle East.
The Israeli assault on Gaza has been raging for over a year since Hamas' 7 October attack on Israel. With a death toll exceeding 42,000 Palestinians and millions displaced, the humanitarian situation in Gaza is dire. Meanwhile, Israel has launched a ground incursion in Lebanon, aiming to push back Hezbollah while killing hundreds of civilians. As Israel fights Hamas and Hezbollah on two fronts, the Biden administration continues to support Israel, announcing the deployment of an anti-missile system and troops.
Now, if you're wondering if it makes any difference to Palestinians whoever wins the 5 November US election, it surely does.
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Democratic candidate Kamala Harris and Republican candidate Donald Trump have markedly different views on the Israeli-Palestinian conflict.
The fates of Palestinians may, indeed, change under a new US administration.
Harris' balancing act
The Biden administration's unwavering support for Israel has caused a rift among Democratic voters, especially among young voters and Arab Americans. Since Joe Biden dropped out of the race late July, some pro-Palestinian activists have expressed concerns over the similarities between Harris' and Biden's position on the Gaza war. The situation has alienated many progressive voters who demand a clear stance on Gaza and US foreign policy.
Like Biden, Harris condemned Hamas' 7 October attack. After meeting with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu in July, Harris said she would "always ensure that Israel is able to defend itself" but she had "serious concern about the scale of human suffering in Gaza, including the death of far too many innocent civilians."
In a CNN interview in August, Harris was asked whether she would do anything differently from Biden such as withholding weapons shipments. Harris said, "No. We have to get a [hostage] deal done."
In her closing campaign message in Michigan yesterday, Harris vowed to end the sufferings in Gaza and ensure security for Israel.
"As president, I will do everything in my power to end the war in Gaza, bring home the hostages, end the suffering in Gaza, ensure Israel is secure, and ensure the Palestinian people can realise their right to dignity, freedom, security and self-determination."
Analysts predict that Harris is more likely to pressure Israeli leaders as US president than Biden. But there is little possibility of her policy positions changing much from Biden's unless there is a genuine opportunity for the US to effect lasting change.
Trump's hardline stance
Donald Trump has always taken a more hardline approach on the Israel-Palestine conflict. He has criticised the Biden administration for being "soft" on Israel's enemies and has called for Israel to "finish the problem" in Gaza. Trump has supported Israel while also saying the nation is "losing" the public relations war.
After meeting Netanyahu in July, Trump said, "I did encourage him to get this [war] over with. Have victory, get your victory and get it over with. It has to stop. The killing has to stop."
Trump has also criticised Harris' calls for a ceasefire. "From the start, Harris has worked to tie Israel's hand behind its back, demanding an immediate ceasefire, always demanding ceasefire," Trump said, adding that it "would only give Hamas time to regroup and launch a new Oct. 7 style attack."
Trump did not mention Gaza or Palestine in his closing campaign speech. In a post last week on X (formerly Twitter), however, he pledged to bring peace in the Middle East "very soon".
"During my Administration, we had peace in the Middle East, and we will have peace again very soon! I will fix the problems caused by Kamala Harris and Joe Biden and stop the suffering and destruction in Lebanon," he wrote.
Another Trump presidency will bring almost no hope for peace in Gaza.
Trump's approach is likely to exacerbate tensions in the region, further complicating the situation for Palestinians. His policies could lead to more aggressive actions by Israel, reducing the chances for peace and stability in the region.
The editorial board of The New York Times recently published a piece on former US president Donald Trump, calling him "unfit" to lead.
"He lies without limit. If he's re-elected, the GOP won't restrain him … Another Trump term will damage the climate, shatter alliances and strengthen autocrats. Americans should demand better," reads the article.
A Palestinian state?
The two-state solution, which envisions an independent Palestinian state existing alongside Israel, has long been seen as the most viable pathway to peace. For decades, the US has been a key player in the Israeli-Palestinian peace process, with numerous administrations voicing support for a two-state solution.
But when it comes to action, US diplomatic efforts always fall short and a two-state solution remains elusive. Moreover, let alone recognising a Palestinian state, the US has consistently blocked Palestine from becoming a member state of the United Nations.
Harris has supported a two-state solution, but her campaign has not given more details. After meeting Netanyahu in July, she said a two-state solution is "the only path that ensures Israel remains a secure, Jewish, and democratic state and one that ensures Palestinians can finally realise the freedom, security, and prosperity that they rightly deserve."
During her interview with CNN she said the US must "work toward a two-state solution where Israel is secure and in equal measure the Palestinians have security and self-determination and dignity".
Trump's rhetoric suggests a continuation of his previous policies. During Trumps' presidency, he recognised Jerusalem as Israel's capital and moved the US embassy there, a move that was seen as undermining the two-state solution.
His "Peace to Prosperity" plan was widely seen as unworkable for Palestinians. The plan proposed a fragmented Palestinian state and allowed Israel to retain control over settlements in the West Bank, leading Palestinian leaders to reject it outright. Harris' approach to a two-state solution might differ from Trump's by including more of the West Bank as part of a Palestinian state.
Meanwhile, in an interview with Time magazine in April, Trump said a peaceful two-state solution seemed unlikely after Hamas attacked Israel on Oct. 7. "There was a time when I thought two-state could work," Trump said. "Now I think two-state is going to be very, very tough."
While the potential for a two-state solution hinges significantly on the results of the 2024 US presidential election, it is essential to recognise that sustainable peace requires genuine commitment from all parties involved. The US can play a vital role, but lasting change will ultimately depend on the willingness of Israeli and Palestinian leaders to engage in meaningful dialogue.
Still, the policies of the next administration will shape the future of US involvement in the Israeli-Palestinian conflict, impacting the lives of millions in the region. The voices of Arab American voters and grassroots activists will be crucial in determining the election's outcome.
Voters in key swing states of Pennsylvania, Michigan, Wisconsin, North Carolina, Georgia, Nevada and Arizona will not only vote for themselves but also decide the fate of Palestinians. In the words of British historian Timothy Garton Ash, whether women and children in Gaza live or die "may depend on what Mike the mechanic in Michigan and Penny the teacher in Pennsylvania think about their grocery bills."
As of filing this report, the latest polling stats show that the election will be a close contest between Harris and Trump. The candidates were deadlocked in recent polls by NYT/Siena College, Emerson College and CNN/SSRS, while Harris leads by just one point in polls by Reuters/Ipsos and CBS/YouGov. Whoever wins the election, the path to peace in Palestine is still a long shot. Nevertheless, a change in US administration can bring hope for renewed measures that will ultimately change the course of history.
