Floods in 11 districts cause Tk14,421cr losses: CPD study

The recent floods in 11 districts in the country's eastern region have caused estimated damage of Tk14,421 crore, according to a study conducted by the Centre for Policy Dialogue (CPD).

The agricultural sector has been the hardest hit by the flood damages, potentially affecting food security and making it more challenging to control inflation if not addressed properly, said the private think tank while presenting its study report at a media briefing held at its office in Dhaka today (6 October).

CPD Executive Director Fahmida Khatun and Research Director Khondaker Golam Moazzem, among others, spoke at the briefing while Research Fellow Muntaseer Kamal delivered a presentation on the study report, "Recent Flood Damage and Rehabilitation Process in the Eastern Region: CPD's Analysis."

The study shows the damage made by the flood is 1.81% of the national budget for fiscal year FY2024-25, and as in terms of GDP, it accounts for 0.29% of the provisional GDP of FY24 and 0.26% of the projected GDP for FY25.

Losses in the agriculture sector amounted to Tk5,169.71 crore or 35.85% of the total damage.

Following this, the infrastructure sector incurred losses of Tk4,653 crore or 32.37%, the housing sector Tk2,407 crore or 16.69%, the health sector Tk2,062 crore or 14.30%, the educational infrastructure Tk89.63 crore or 0.62%, and the industrial sector Tk38.03 crore or 0.26%.

The think tank also said in the agriculture sector, Aman paddy cultivation was damaged the most during the flood. While the extent of damage to Aman paddy production was not mentioned in the report, the CPD said it could impact the country's overall food security and recommended the government make quick decisions regarding rice imports, as well as consider reducing the existing tariffs on agricultural inputs and commodities.

Kamal said seed beds have gone through considerable damage owing to the floods. So, an adequate supply of seeds will have to be ensured so that next season's Aman cultivation is not hampered.

He also mentioned that in some areas, 85-95% of the fish raised by farmers have been washed away by the floods.

The damage assessment was based on 11 districts of the eastern region that were affected by the floods, which started on 19 August.

The study shows Noakhali has suffered the most damage among the affected districts in the flood, with losses amounting to Tk4,191.62 crore. Following that, Cumilla has incurred Tk3,390.35 crore in damages, Feni Tk2,683.14 crore, Chattogram Tk1,676.94 crore, Lakshmipur Tk1,403.91 crore, Moulvibazar Tk506.07 crore, Brahmanbaria Tk144.01 crore, Habiganj Tk143.59 crore, Khagrachhari Tk127.23 crore, Cox's Bazar Tk100.48 crore, and Sylhet Tk20.51 crore.

Citing that a lack of consistency was observed in the distribution of relief, the CPD said some regions received multiple rounds of aid, while others did not receive any, indicating issues with coordination and capability.

Recommendations

Kamal said that the government should increase the budget allocation for relief distribution, especially considering that the frequency and intensity of floods and cyclones are projected to increase.

He added that social safety net allocations, particularly those for old age citizens, widows and destitute women, can be increased after careful assessment to subside the flood's impact in affected areas.

He said the government needs to ensure easy access to agricultural loans for farmers. Many small businesses have also been affected — many of which have taken loans from microfinance organisations.

Given the current scenario, Kamal said a moratorium on loan repayment and extension of the repayment period could be considered.

He also emphasised effective coordination among various stakeholders for rapid emergency response before and during the flood.

Coordination between the Meteorological Department, Flood Forecasting and Warning Centre, Ministry of Disaster Management and Relief, and local government units such as union parishad needs to be strengthened, he said.

Fahmida Khatun said, "We have to adapt to living with floods and disasters. However, the shortage of adequate funds, insufficient relief, and gaps in management capacity need to be addressed and improved."

Khondaker Golam Moazzem said in this year's flood, the damage to the private sector was greater than that to the public sector. The private sector accounted for 53% of the total damage, while the rest affected the public sector, he said. 

"Due to the prolonged waterlogging, the infrastructure damage in the private sector was more significant this time. Therefore, the government needs to provide low-interest credit support to help individuals in the private sector recover," he said.

Moazzem said the floods, soon after the interim government took office, served as a test case, at a time when the administration was not fully functional. 

"Since there is a possibility of similar floods in the future, it is crucial to be prepared in advance. If necessary, the government could establish a specialised committee that would work on this issue regularly."