Low-pressure developing into cyclone, forecast to follow Amphan's path

A new low-pressure area has formed over the east-central Bay of Bengal and adjoining the North Andaman Sea, with weather experts predicting that it will develop into Cyclone "Dana" by 23-24 October.

Bangladesh Meteorological Department confirmed the possibility of the current low-pressure area intensifying into a cyclone but said it is unlikely to be very strong due to limited time for development.

However, experts suggest that Cyclone Dana may affect the coastal areas of Khulna and Barishal divisions, following a path similar to that of Cyclone Amphan.

Amphan hit Bangladesh's Satkhira district on 20 May 2020, with maximum wind speeds of 204 km/h, causing significant destruction.

BMD meteorologist Md Bazlur Rashid told TBS, "There is a high probability that the low-pressure area will develop into a cyclone, and its trajectory suggests it could hit West Bengal, India. If it hits West Bengal, there is also a possibility it will affect Khulna in Bangladesh. Landfall is likely around 25 October."

Meanwhile, the Indian Meteorological Department stated, "A cyclonic circulation lay over the central Andaman Sea on 19 October. It lay over the North Andaman Sea the following day and persisted in the same region. Under its influence, a low-pressure area is expected to form in the east-central Bay of Bengal during the next 24 hours."

The met office further predicted, "It is likely to move west-northwestwards, intensifying into a depression by 22 October and into a cyclonic storm by 23 October over the east-central Bay of Bengal. The storm is then expected to reach the northwest Bay of Bengal, near the coasts of Odisha and West Bengal, by 24 October."

Meteorologist Mostofa Kamal Palash, a PhD researcher in meteorology and climate at the University of Saskatchewan, told TBS, "There is a strong possibility the low-pressure area will turn into a depression by Tuesday, a deep depression by Wednesday afternoon, and a full-fledged cyclone by Wednesday evening. Once formed, the cyclone will be named Dana, a name given by Qatar."

Palash, analysing weather forecast models from the US, EU, and Canada, stated, "Cyclone Dana is likely to make landfall as a Severe Cyclonic Storm, with wind speeds between 89 and 117 km/h. It will likely hit the coasts of West Bengal and Bangladesh's Khulna division between midnight on 23 October and 6pm on 24 October."

He added that Cyclone Dana is expected to follow a similar path to Cyclone Amphan, potentially impacting the Medinipur and South 24 Parganas districts in West Bengal and the Satkhira and Khulna districts in Bangladesh.

A storm surge of 7-8 feet higher than normal is possible in Satkhira, Khulna, and Bagerhat, with a 5-6 feet rise in water levels predicted for Barguna, Patuakhali, and Bhola.

BMD meteorologist Abul Kalam Mallik, analysing 133 years of October cyclone data, noted that since 1891, 51 cyclones have formed in the Bay of Bengal, 43 of which were classified as very strong. Of these, 11 severe cyclones crossed the Bangladesh coast, making October an active month for cyclones in the region.

More recently, Cyclone Sitrang, which hit Bangladesh on 25 October 2022, damaged 10,000 homes and affected 6,000 hectares of crops. 

As the low-pressure system intensifies, authorities are closely monitoring its development, preparing for potential landfall and its impact on coastal areas in both Bangladesh and India.