Seat sharing: All look for AL blessings to ensure victory
Top leaders from multiple allied parties told TBS that the AL has been requested to spare around 80 seats, prioritising constituencies where they believe victory is assured.
While partners from the 14-party alliance push for some favours in seat sharing for the upcoming 12th general elections, the ruling Awami League (AL) so far remains tight-lipped on the issue.
According to sources, leaders of the allies are negotiating with the AL to reach an agreement that allows them to field candidates with their own party symbols or the AL's boat, whichever strategy maximises their chances of electoral success.
Top leaders from multiple allied parties told The Business Standard that the AL has been requested to spare around 80 seats, prioritising constituencies where they believe victory is assured.
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Their expectations are significantly higher for this election compared to previous ones. The absence of the opposition BNP, coupled with increased domestic and international pressure on the government to ensure fair elections, presents an opportunity for the alliance to make significant gains.
Beyond the components of the AL-led 14-party alliance, smaller parties — such as the Trinamool BNP, Bangladesh Nationalist Movement (BNM), and Bangladesh Supreme Party — also have hope of securing seats with the AL's support.
Some parties in and outside the 14-party alliance, which could not win any seats in previous elections, expect to bag at least one or two seats for their candidates. Multiple sources suggest that these parties' participation may have received tacit approval from the AL.
Political analysts, however, believe that candidates from coalition partners face an uphill battle against AL nominees. This is due to a significant disparity in resources and mobilisation capacity, with AL holding an advantage in terms of personnel and manpower.
Despite several meetings between leaders of allies and AL, including General Secretary Obaidul Quader and 14-party alliance Coordinator Amir Hossain Amu, the ruling party remains quiet regarding seat-sharing arrangements.
The Jatiya Party, led by its Secretary General Mujibul Haque Chunnu, held a meeting with the AL presumably over seat sharing at a hotel in Gulshan-1 last night. As of the filing of this report at 10:30 pm, there has been no concrete information on the meeting outcome.
Ahead of the meeting, Obaidul Quader expressed his reluctance to discuss seat-sharing arrangements before engaging in discussions with the Jatiya Party.
"The Jatiya Party was once a part of our grand alliance, and they are contesting the upcoming elections independently. Therefore, it is premature to comment on seat-sharing before holding discussions with them," Quader said.
However, Jatiya Party Secretary General Mujibul Haque Chunnu said that any agreement reached with the AL will be informal.
"The AL has not given any proposal to us for seat sharing. However, they [AL] said they want to talk to us," Chunnu said.
80 seats sought from AL
The alliance and allied parties have requested around 80 seats from the AL.
Among these parties, the Jatiya Party has requested 35 seats, followed by the Workers Party with five, Jasad (Inu) with five, Bangladesh Tarikat Federation with two, Bikalpa Dhara Bangladesh with two, and Jatiya Samajtantrik Dal-Jasad (Badal) with one.
Additionally, Trinomool BNP seeks five seats, Bangladesh Nationalist Movement (BNM) five, Bangladesh Supreme Party two, Bangladesh Nationalist Front one, Islami Oikya Jote 2, Jatiya Party-JP (Manju) two, the United Front led by Bangladesh Kalyan Party five, Gono Forum two, and Bangladesh Samyabadi Dal one.
Who got what in past polls?
An analysis of Election Commission data shows that the AL nominated candidates jointly with its alliance partners in two of the past three parliamentary elections.
In the 2014 election, although alliance partners did not contest under AL's "boat" symbol, seat-sharing negotiations were conducted and the alliance parties secured victories through AL's support. The election was boycotted by the BNP and its allies.
In the 2014 election, at the behest of the Jatiya Party, the AL withheld the use of its "boat" symbol in 34 constituencies. Consequently, candidates with the Jatiya Party's "plough" symbol emerged victorious in those seats.
Despite the BNP's boycott of the elections, a section of the Jatiya Party ultimately participated under the leadership of its chief patron, Rowshan Ershad.
In the 2018 elections, the AL allocated 39 seats to its coalition partners, with 26 of them awarded to the Jatiya Party. Additionally, Jasad (Inu) received three seats, Bikalpa Dhara three, Workers Party five, Tarikat Federation one, and Jatiya Party-Manju (JP) one seat.
In the 2018 elections, the AL secured 258 seats, followed by the Jatiya Party with 22 seats and the BNP alliance with eight seats. Independent candidates secured three seats, while other parties within the Awami League-led coalition won a combined nine seats.
Among the 14-party alliance, Jasad (with the boat symbol) won two seats, Workers Party three seats, Bikalpa Dhara two seats, and Tarikat Federation one seat.
Apart from this, the Jatiya Party (Manju) won a seat with the bicycle symbol.
The AL has nominated candidates for 298 seats in the upcoming 12th national elections, leaving two constituencies: Kushtia-2 and Narayanganj-5. Additionally, local AL leaders are participating as independent candidates.
The current situation raises questions about how the AL-led alliance parties will field candidates. According to multiple sources, discussions are ongoing regarding the allocation of seats to the three new parties joining the election.
For the 12th parliamentary elections, slated for 7 January next year, 91 candidates from Jasad (Inu), 33 candidates from the Workers Party (Menon), 14 candidates from Bikalpa Dhara, and 47 candidates from the Tarikat Federation are contesting various seats.
What is the future of big leaders of small parties?
In the 2018 general election, the AL conceded 10 seats to its four partners within the 14-party alliance. The Workers Party secured three seats: Dhaka-8, Rajshahi-2, and Satkhira-1.
Similarly, Jasad acquired three constituencies: Kushtia-2, Feni-1, and Bogura-4. Additionally, Jatiya Party (JP) Chairman Anwar Hossain Manju won the Pirojpur-2 constituency, while Tarikat Federation Chairman Najibul Bashar Maizbhandari secured Chittagong-2.
For the upcoming election, Workers Party President Rashed Khan Menon submitted nomination papers for two constituencies: Barishal-2 and Barishal-3. The AL and Jatiya Party also fielded candidates for these constituencies.
Talukdar Md Yunus is running from AL in Barishal-2, Sardar Md Khaled Hossain from Awami League and current MP Golam Kibria Tipu from Jatiya Party are running in Barishal-3.
The AL has not nominated anyone for the Kushtia-2 and Narayanganj-5 constituencies. However, Jasad President Hasanul Haque Inu has submitted nomination papers for the Kushtia-2 seat.
Jasad General Secretary Shirin Akhtar previously got elected twice by running with the AL's boat symbol from the Feni-1 constituency. But this time, AL candidate Alauddin Ahmed Chowdhury is contesting in this seat.
Anwar Hossain Manju is the only member of parliament elected from the Jatiya Party (JP). This time, the AL has fielded Kanai Lal Biswas for Manju's Pirojpur-2 seat.
The AL has nominated Faridun Nahar Laili for the Lakshmipur-4 constituency, currently represented by Bikalpa Dhara Secretary General Abdul Mannan and Mohiuddin Ahmed for the Munshiganj-1 constituency, currently represented by Bikalpa Dhara Joint Secretary General Mahi B Chowdhury.
Khadijatul Anwar has been nominated by the AL for the Chittagong-2 constituency, currently represented by Tariqat Federation's Najibul Bashar Maizbhandari.
What alliance partners think
Dr Syed Rezaul Haq Chandpuri, secretary general of the Bangladesh Tariqat Federation, stated, 'We have submitted a letter to the alliance requesting five seats, and we have provided options for any seat from the following pairs: Chattogram 1 and 2, Cumilla 8 and 9, Chandpur 5 and 6, and Chattogram-5 and Mymensingh Sadar.
He added, "The alliance is yet to finalise a decision regarding our demand. The decision on seat sharing may come after Awami League's meeting with the Jatiya Party."
Referring to their allocation of two seats each in the 2014 and 2018 elections, Syed Rezaul Haq Chandpuri said, "We want a few more seats this time. Everyone expects to gain a position after working for the alliance for around 5-7 years."
Rezaul Haq mentioned that 47 candidates submitted nomination forms from Bangladesh Tariqat Federation this time, of which 44 were declared valid. "We will contest the election with the 'boat' symbol in seats granted by the alliance. In the remaining seats, we will run with our own symbol, the 'garland.'"
Jatiya Samajtantrik Dal (JSD) President Hasanul Haque Inu said, "The alliance will sustain for the sake of politics, regardless of whether BNP comes to the polls or not." He also expressed his expectation for more seats from the alliance in the upcoming polls.
Rashed Khan Menon, president of the Workers' Party, said, "The days ahead will not be very pleasant. The fear of economic sanctions is also in place. So, Awami League will need alliance partners. That is why the Awami League must give importance to our demand."
Chairman of Tariqat Federation Najibul Bashar said, "The leader (Sheikh Hasina) of the alliance has clearly said she will stay with the alliance regardless of BNP's participation in the election. The prime minister has not announced anything about changing her stance. So, we are not thinking anything different."
Jatiya Party-JP Office Secretary M Salah Uddin told TBS, "We have always been with the grand alliance, and we will be with it this time too. Talks are ongoing regarding the distribution of seats. We will be sure about our chances of victory after 18 December. However, we are expecting to get more seats than we did in the previous elections. Hopefully, we will get more seats from the alliance this time."
