Assad is back in business. Where art thou Arab Spring?

In January 2011, the Arab world changed forever. Or at least, that is what we believed in for nearly a decade. 

Tunisia's Mohamed Bouazizi set himself on fire and died; protesters took to the streets against President Ben Ali and soon he would take refuge in Saudi Arabia and resign. A crazy dream came true. Tunisia became the first Arab country to kick out a dictator. The dream overwhelmed the entire region. From Egypt, Libya, Bahrain, and Yemen to Syria, protests erupted against Arab rulers. Some of them started falling like dominos. 

People all over the world active on social media, who followed the news cycles back then, were convinced that the Arab world had changed, forever. The protests were coined the 'Arab Spring'. 

They believed in the rosy dream of a democratic Arab world empowered by the new weapon of mass mobilisation – social media. 

Fast forward to May 19, 2023, however, Bashar Al Assad of Syria was welcomed back to the Arab League. 

After a decade of civil war to oust Assad, which resulted in the loss of thousands of innocent lives, the rebel groups in Syria have been all but defeated while Assad was beaming at the Arab League Summit on Friday, flanked between Kais Saied and Abdel Fattah El-Sisi – the dictators of Tunisia and Egypt. 

So, just a decade after the Arab Spring – the event believed to have changed the Arab nations forever – the rulers-for-life leaders of the Arab world are back to their respective places, while the dream for democracy has been crushed, perhaps once and for all.

What did we get out of the Arab Spring? 

The Arab Spring was basically concentrated in six countries - Tunisia, Egypt, Libya, Yemen, Bahrain and Syria - with partial impact in several others, such as Saudi Arabia and Morocco. 

The main drivers for the Arab Spring were democracy, freedom of expression, employment, and standard of living, among others. So 12 years since Mohamed Bouazizi died, where do these countries stand on these key issues? 

According to Freedom House, Tunisia had become the only country to emerge from the Arab Spring with a 'Free' designation, casting off its dictatorship and building a promising democracy. But after President Kaïs Saïed unilaterally dismissed the prime minister and suspended the parliament in 2021, the country has faltered in democracy indexes. 

A country that scored 23 in Freedom House index eventually scored 79 in 2014 as democracy thrived. After Kais seized power, Tunis scored 64 in 2022, and further fall is expected this year onwards. 

Egypt scored 35 in 2012. In 2022, the country scored 18 under Sisi. Even deposed Hosni Mubarak had a way better score if we look at the data from 2005. Similarly, the other countries in the eye of the Arab Spring storm, including Bahrain, Libya and Syria, have equally dropped far below the pre-spring scores. 

The standard of living too, according to the UN Development Program, has either been the same or drastically dropped ever since the spring, as some of these countries return to more aggressive forms of dictatorship. 

Also, the imprisonment of journalists has increased in most of these countries, especially in Egypt, while youth employment also hasn't seen significant progress. 

Photo: Reuters

Back to square one 

All we need is to compare two pictures side by side. 

An Associated Press photo from the Arab League Summit in October 2010 held in Libya features President Gaddafi flanked by Egypt's Hosni Mubarak on his left and Ali Abdullah of Yemen on his right, while Tunisia's Ben Ali is beside Abdullah. 

Each of them has been deposed or is dead.

For over a decade since that summit, these countries tried to bring democracy into their countries, fought dictators and autocrats in the process, and paid a hefty price with lives and stability. 

Despite this, they are somehow back to square one. 

If you take a look at group photos of Arab leaders from the May 19 summit in Jeddah, Saudi Arabia, there are only kings, princes, autocrats and rulers-for-life beaming into the cameras.  

Whereas the old kingdoms remained intact, defying the storm, the ones caught in the eye also returned to their previous selves with new dictatorships at the helm. 

The illusion is over; the reality has settled in – the Arab world is not a place for democracy. 

The Arab winter 

UN Human Rights Office estimates that more than 306,000 civilians were killed over 10 years in the Syria conflict while millions were displaced. Today nearly four million Syrians remain refugees in Turkey. 

Except for a few cities, entire Syria is buried in the ashes of the civil war. 

And the Arab world finally made it official that they are restarting ties with Assad. 

It was already clear several years ago that removing Assad was not possible with the weakening rebel power. Now Arab countries have made it official by welcoming Assad back to the league. 

So spring is long over, and it is all but winter in the Arab world. 

With a proven capacity to dispel and destroy any unrest or civil war for greater freedom, the rulers-for-life leaders of the Arab countries know they have no challengers. 

They also know they have each others' support when it comes to challenges to their rule. If you need an example, look at the way the United Arab Emirates empowered anti-democratic forces in these countries all these years. 

And the failure of the Arab Spring made people, in general, understand that they are no match for the state machinery that puts everything at the disposal of these leaders to silence unrest. 

Democracy has no chance in the Arab world anymore. Welcome to the Arab winter.