'Comprehensive plan crucial for absorbing the coming food crisis'

Delays in economic recovery from the fallout of the Covid-19 pandemic and the Russia-Ukraine War, coupled with more aggressive natural calamities, have exacerbated the food crisis, to a great extent, worldwide. And as is the case in any crisis, the least developed communities, particularly across the African and Asian regions, are projected to bear the heaviest brunt of this food crisis in the coming year. 

Bangladesh would not be spared from the shock, some concerned organisations have warned. 

Even the Prime Minister of Bangladesh emphasised widening food production coverage at the domestic level as some global crises are disrupting food imports, making international trading expensive. 

Amid the volatile energy market and shortage of agricultural inputs, what will happen to Bangladesh in near future? The Business Standard recently spoke to Professor Dr Mohammad Jahangir Alam, a faculty of agricultural economics and rural sociology at Bangladesh Agricultural University, to understand the food security situation of Bangladesh. 

 What is the current state of food security in Bangladesh?

Food security means that food is available and, at the same time, consumers have access to the market or the ability to afford the food. 

In the near past, we observed that Bangladesh's rice production covered the lion's share of the local demand, meaning that rice was available in the market, while the percentage of rice imports was minimal. 

In Bangladesh, rice cultivation is divided into three seasons: Boro, Aman and Aush. Boro supplies the largest chunk of the annual production, while Aman provides 39% and the rest 10-11% comes from Aush. 

Past experience suggests that if one season witnesses a fall in production, plan-wise cultivation in the other two seasons helps a bit to make up for the shortage.  

This year, Bangladesh's agriculture suffered an extended drought that hampered Aman production. Afterwards, some natural calamities like flash floods and cyclone Sitrang also reduced rice production. Hence, Boro cultivation requires comprehensive action to make up for the losses. 

Comprehensive action means that farmers receive an adequate amount of agricultural inputs like quality seeds, fertilizer and irrigation facilities at the right time. 

If the farmers can harvest a bumper Boro production, there will be no problem with the availability of rice, I believe.

Data from reliable sources, including FAO and IFAD, suggest that the rice production rate in Bangladesh is improving. In terms of the availability of rice, Bangladesh remained in a good position among the South Asian countries, according to the 2022 Global Hunger Index. 

However, the noun 'food' does not only mean rice. All the edible nutrients are 'food.' 

Now, the issue of 'accessibility' comes in. 

In the near past, we found rice was available, and at the same time, rice became expensive in the market for  many customers. Even rice imports failed to reduce the retail price. 

The same happened to imported wheat, edible oil, pulse, sugar, onion and other commodities. In terms of the availability of the products mentioned [except rice], Bangladesh heavily depends on imports. 

What needs to be noted [here] is that the price hike of the products has not only been [created] by local syndicates. The pandemic, the Russia-Ukraine War, inflation and the expensive US dollar have exacerbated the global food inflation. Bangladesh, as an importer, is suffering from this crisis too. That means people here have less accessibility to food now.

Graphics: TBS

During food inflation, poor people suffer the most. I would suggest to the government that vulnerable communities be brought under the social safety net with increased budgetary allocation. At the same time, the market should be monitored strictly so that unscrupulous businesses are restricted from price manipulation. 

What are the ways, you recommend, to minimise dependency on imported food? 

Agricultural economists have long been recommending that the government doesn't necessarily need to work with 40-50 products. Essential foods should be focused on. We cannot increase the production of wheat because of climatic reasons. But there are so many crops we can cultivate on a larger scale. 

We import a huge amount of pulse. So I would suggest the government provide the necessary support to the districts suitable for pulse cultivation. 

When the price of onion went high, the onion farmers received government support. The next season, the production of the spice increased. But it created another problem: the price of onions fell. So, a comprehensive plan is required to check such types of volatility in the market. 

Amid power shortage and expensive diesel that affect irrigation, and the shortage of fertilizer, how challenging is increasing food production at the domestic level?

It is good news that the government is negotiating with a number of fertilizer exporting countries to facilitate Government-to-Government (G2G) deals for urea import. Through effective diplomacy, such types of G2G negotiations are much needed to ensure the supply of other fertilizers.  

The power supply, as well as the availability of fuel, is related to irrigation. During the time of the drought this year, the government arranged a supplementary power supply to run irrigation on a priority basis. Boro farmers, perhaps, require similar support. 

As for the long-term solutions, irrigation and agriculture need to be linked to the renewable energy supply. This is crucial to reduce dependency on imported non-renewable energy and fuel. 

Land shortage is a prevalent problem in Bangladesh. Is it hampering local food production? 

According to Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina's instruction, every inch of arable land needs to be utilised. Available data suggest that there are a huge amount of cultivable wastelands [arable land left out of agriculture] in Sylhet, Chattogram and Faridpur regions. 

These lands must be brought under agriculture. Some coastal lands are less utilised as owners use the lands merely as a one-crop field. The agricultural extension department should plan for some land too, which are left unutilised because the land owners are not involved in agriculture. 

For the long term, I strongly recommended reformation of our land use because a huge amount of private lands remain non-agricultural and we are deprived of crops that the land could produce.

In Bangladesh, semi-urban agriculture needs to be popular. A minimum amount of harvest, for example, vegetables for three days of consumption, can contribute to the supply chain nationally. 

As we are all living through a tough situation, we must work together under a comprehensive agricultural development plan. This is crucial to overcome the global crisis. 

Bangladesh escaped the global recession in 2007-08. I hope, again, we will absorb the ongoing shock, together.