What does the Trump-Modi press briefing mean for Bangladesh? Here's what experts say
While Modi has expressed concerns about the developments in Bangladesh, Trump denied suggestions that the US deep state was involved in last year's mass uprising that led to the ouster of the Awami League administration and government changeover in Bangladesh
Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi and US President Donald Trump discussed the recent developments in Bangladesh during their high-profile meeting in Washington yesterday (13 February).
While Modi has expressed concerns about the developments in Bangladesh, Trump denied suggestions that the US deep state was involved in last year's mass uprising that led to the ouster of the Awami League administration and government changeover in Bangladesh. Trump also sparked a discussion with his comment "I'll leave Bangladesh to the prime minister (Modi)" while responding to a question regarding the regime change in Bangladesh.
What does their meeting mean for Bangladesh? Experts weighed in on its significance:
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'Modi is under a tremendous amount of pressure'
Humayun Kabir
Former Bangladesh ambassador to the US
So first we have to understand the question. The question was if the American deep state had played a role in the shift of the political landscape in Bangladesh. Trump denied playing any role
The next thing he said was 'I leave it to Prime Minister', which means he is asking India and Bangladesh to sort out the relationship issues Bangladesh now has with India. He has not said anything negative.
So, I am assuming the basic answer is the American deep state was not involved in this and if India has any heartburn regarding Bangladesh, Prime Minister Modi will try to address that
Modi is under a tremendous amount of pressure. If you read the joint communique, they have mostly talked about defence equipment and trade. Shortly before meeting Prime Minister Modi, Trump told reporters that India is a "hard place to do business" because of their high tariffs.
The announcement regarding reciprocal tariffs just before Modi's visit is a signal for India. So, I do not think much of Modi not saying anything regarding Bangladesh
The fact that the Bangladesh issue was not a big talking point in the discussions is a positive for us. One of the biggest arguments Indians had for supporting Sheikh Hasina was that her ouster was a conspiracy.
The OHCHR report and Trump's statement prove there were no conspiracies. Thus, India no longer has any strong arguments for their position regarding Bangladesh.
'It is evident that Trump is not particularly interested in addressing Bangladesh and its internal affairs'
Md Nazmul Islam
Associate Professor of Political Science and Head of Türkiye, Asia and Indo-Pacific Studies at Ankara Yildirim Beyazit University
Following the joint press conference between Trump and Modi, it has become evident that Trump is not particularly interested in addressing Bangladesh and its internal affairs. There are three possible reasons for this.
Firstly, Trump may be more focused on how India intends to negotiate the Bangladesh issue with the USA, particularly in terms of what concessions or trade-offs might be involved.
Second, at present, Bangladesh does not pose a significant national security threat to the US, making it a lower priority for Trump's administration. If the issue is crucial for Modi and India, Trump appears to be waiting to see at what cost they are willing to bring it to the table.
Lastly, Trump's current priorities revolve around stricter immigrant policies, trade tariffs and China. In this context, India presents a much larger geopolitical and economic concern for Trump than Bangladesh.
Apart from that efforts to reinstate Shiekh Hasina or the Awami League in Bangladesh may serve India's national interests but not necessarily those of the US. For American national security, fostering a stable democratic environment aligns better with its strategic goals, whether through the Indo-Pacific Strategy, QUAD, AUKUS or the IMMEC.
In contrast, India, which views Bangladesh primarily through a security lens, has historically relied on the Awami League as a trusted partner since Bangladesh's independence.
This long-standing alliance makes it challenging for India to identify new partners. However, the emergence of an elected government could present India with an opportunity to build new cooperative ties with Bangladesh.
For now, India has limited options for addressing the Bangladesh issue with the US, as its primary focus will be on managing trade tariffs and the repatriation of India illegal immigrants from the US.
Only after resolving these matters can Bangladesh become a priority.
However, by then, significant time will have passed, and Bangladesh will have strengthened its presence in the international community and global politics."
'The real work for CA Yunus and colleagues is at home'
Jon F Danilowicz
Retired diplomat of the US Department of State and a former deputy secretary at the US Embassy in Bangladesh
During their meeting, PM Modi raised concerns and shared his views about Bangladesh with President Trump. Publicly, President Trump declined to talk about Bangladesh and the issue did not feature in the joint statement.
On balance, those who feared that Modi would convince Trump to take a strong public stance critical of Bangladesh's interim government can breathe a sigh of relief. This, coupled with the Yunus-Musk call and the earlier release of the UN OHCHR report on the July Revolution, adds up to a pretty good week on the international front for the interim government. It is hard to see where the Awami League and its allies go from here.
The real work for CA Yunus and colleagues is at home, where there is an increasingly urgent need to reach a consensus on the overall reform package and timing of elections. The release of the UN report will also likely accelerate a decision on whether or not to ban the Awami League."
'India should recognise that the US no longer views Bangladesh solely through an Indian lens'
Saimum Parvez
Senior Researcher, MF Norwegian School of Theology, Religion and Society, Norway
India has been harbouring a fugitive: Sheikh Hasina, a mass murderer who allegedly ordered indiscriminate killings of her own people. A recent UN report has confirmed her involvement in crimes against humanity. It is unfortunate that under the leadership of Narendra Modi, India has been attempting to protect Hasina, which has been evident in the political engagement over the past several months and the recent meeting with Donald Trump.
India should recognise that the US no longer views Bangladesh solely through an Indian lens. The recent meeting between Modi and Trump made it clear that under Trump's leadership, the US will maintain its current stance on Bangladesh. Trump explicitly stated that the US did not interfere in Bangladeshi politics, and he indicated how India is attempting to influence domestic politics in Bangladesh.
Trade and business are critical factors in shaping contemporary bilateral relations. As long as Bangladesh can navigate trade wisely with the US, creating a win-win situation for both nations, India is unlikely to undermine US-Bangladesh relations. Even though individuals of Indian origin have acquired significant positions in the Trump administration, Bangladesh can overcome challenges and maintain effective, fruitful diplomatic relations with the US by adopting a careful, balanced, and trade-oriented foreign policy without overly worrying about Indian interference.
'Delhi will continue to bring up Bangladesh to Trump administration'
Michael Kugelman
Director, South Asia Institute
The Bangladesh component of the press conference was quite striking. Some Indian observers have likely hoped that Trump will buy into the Indian view that the US deep state was involved in Hasina's ouster, and also that Trump will side with India's views in Bangladesh and even defer to its actions there.
And yet, while it's just one data point, the press conference essentially shattered those assumptions: Trump said there was no deep state role in the Hasina ouster, and he declined to say much about Bangladesh other than to ask Modi to respond to the question.
Modi's decision not to weigh in on Bangladesh may reflect the view that it's a sensitive issue for New Delhi, and that it's best not to comment publicly on it. That said, I wouldn't be surprised if Modi brought up the Bangladesh issue during his meeting with Trump. It's an important matter for New Delhi.
Moving forward, I think we can expect New Delhi to continue to bring up Bangladesh to the Trump administration. It likely sees an opportunity: It surely knows that Trump will not be happy with how the Biden left the relationship with Bangladesh: The US had essentially agreed to provide high levels of support—development and humanitarian aid, technical assistance for reforms, and so on. Trump will want no part of that, and his suspension of foreign assistance sends a strong message. So New Delhi may think it can coax Trump to back away from the Yunus government.
Trump will likely view Bangladesh through a great power competition lens, and the administration will likely seek to encourage Dhaka to rely less on China. At the same time, Trump, who wants the US to do less in the world, may actually be happy to defer to a trusted Indian partner in a region that will not be accorded high levels of strategic significance by his administration, especially relative to East Asia, Europe, and the Middle East.
