Arakan Army’s takeover of northern Rakhine: What fate awaits the Rohingyas?
As the Arakan Army gains full control of northern Rakhine, fears of renewed violence against the Rohingya mount, complicating repatriation efforts
With the Myanmar army having been driven out of their last outpost in Maungdaw, there is uncertainty on both sides of the 271-kilometre-long Bangladesh-Myanmar border, the Burmese side of which is now under complete control of the Arakan Army.
The capture of Maungdaw completes the ethno-nationalist armed group's control of the northern part of Rakhine state.
For Bangladesh, already home to a million Rohingyas, this poses a risk of a fresh influx of refugees. This also paints an even bleaker picture of the already stale repatriation dialogues.
The Rohingyas were denied basic rights and faced systematic repression under the Tatmadaw, Myanmar's Armed Forces. But if Bangladesh wishes to avoid another influx of refugees, it no longer has the luxury of ignoring the Arakan Army as dialogues with Myanmar's State Administration Council are unlikely to yield any outcome.
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For now, whether the situation gets worse for the Rohingyas under new governance in Rakhine remains to be seen.
The Arakan Army's views on Rohingya are no better than those of the Myanmar junta
Recent fighting in Rakhine has raised fears of a revival of organised violence against members of the Muslim Rohingya minority, similar to that which drove at least 740,000 members of their community in 2017 to flee to Bangladesh for safety.
The Arakan Army, which is the military wing of the Buddhist Rakhine ethnic group in Rakhine state, where they are the majority and seek autonomy from Myanmar's central government, denies the allegations, though witnesses have described the group's actions to the Associated Press and other media.
Rakhine media reported on Monday that the Arakan Army had arrested about 80 Rohingya insurgents, along with soldiers of the Myanmar army, following the battle for Maungdaw.
For Bangladesh, already hosting over a million Rohingyas, the Arakan Army's rise poses a dual challenge, managing its border and a stalled repatriation process.
Rohingya militia from the Arakan Rohingya Army (ARA), Arakan Rohingya Salvation Army (ARSA), and Rohingya Solidarity Organization (RSO) were among the soldiers who fled the base in Maungdaw.
The assistance extended by the Rohingyas to the Tatmadaw, whether voluntary or because of conscription, might lead to a new conflict, according to Muktadir Rashid, investigative journalist and Bangladesh correspondent of independent Burmese news outlet The Irrawaddy.
Nay San Lwin, co-founder of the Free Rohingya Coalition, recently told Anadolu Agency that Rohingyas, long persecuted by Myanmar's military, are now facing new threats from the Arakan Army.
"When it comes to Rohingya, the Arakan Army has the same intention as the Myanmar military," he said.
Lwin emphasised that Rohingya refugees in Bangladesh cannot return as long as the Arakan Army controls their lands.
He also said the Arakan Army appears to be continuing what Myanmar's military once described as "unfinished business" from World War II, echoing remarks made by military leaders in 2018.
But in recent times, the Arakan Army has expressed a willingness to coexist with the Rohingya, with its leader Major General Twan Mrat Naing hinting that they support their safe return and reintegration.
Dialogue with the Arakan Army instead of the Myanmar junta?
Since the Rohingyas in Myanmar predominantly reside in Rakhine, it is logical that the Arakan Army and its political wing United League of Arakan be included in discussions of Rohingya repatriation.
"... the Arakan Army's political arm, the United League of Arakan, has demonstrated a degree of pragmatism in its governance. While it remains far from a perfect partner, the Arakan Army's growing influence cannot be ignored," Dr Azeem Ibrahim OBE, the director of Special Initiatives at the Newlines Institute for Strategy and Policy, recently wrote in an article for Arab News.
He warned though that, "Engaging with the Arakan Army is not without risks. The group's history of armed conflict and its ultimate ambitions for autonomy raises questions about its long-term intentions. However, any repatriation initiative must be built on a foundation of accountability and rights."
However, there are various barriers to holding dialogues with the Arakan Army.
"Bangladesh's discussions regarding Rohingya repatriation were not with the Arakan Army, but with the Tatmadaw. However, since the Myanmar army is no longer in control of northern Rakhine, the primary concern is how Bangladesh can open a channel of dialogue with the Arakan Army, which is a non-state actor. Despite their stronghold there, they have no official recognition," Muktadir Rashid noted.
But he pointed out that India's interest in Rakhine can help Bangladesh initiate dialogues with the Arakan Army.
"India also has an interest in this because of the Kaladan project. Since the security and development of the Seven Sisters are connected to the Kaladan project, India will try its best to bring the Arakan Army to the table, either by providing aid, such as for reconstruction, or by negotiating with them. This would be a realistic move and Bangladesh could take advantage of that," Rashid further explained.
