Is Pakistan moving towards a civil war?
Imran Khan, who has already lost his parliamentary majority after allies quit his coalition government and joined the opposition, urged his supporters to take to the streets on Sunday ahead of the no-confidence against him
Pakistan's Prime Minister Imran Khan faces a vote of no-confidence at the Pakistani National Assembly on Sunday (3 April), a vote he seems to be positioned to lose.
On Saturday (2 April), Khan suggested that he might not accept a vote to oust him, a move he alleged was being orchestrated by the United States.
"How can I accept the result when the entire process is discredited?. Democracy functions on moral authority - what moral authority is left after this connivance?" Khan told a select group of foreign journalists at his office.
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Opposition parties say Khan has failed to revive an economy battered by the coronavirus pandemic or fulfill promises to make his government more transparent and accountable, and have put forward the no-confidence motion.
While Imran Khan has framed his troubles as the result of an international conspiracy abetted by local actors. Imran Khan also accused dissidents from his own party, Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf (PTI), and opposition leaders of being "traitors" for their alleged complicity in the plot.
Khan, who has already lost his parliamentary majority after allies quit his coalition government and joined the opposition, urged his supporters to take to the streets on Sunday ahead of the vote.
Before Imran Khan, Benazir Bhutto and Shaukat Aziz had, in 1989 and 2006, respectively, faced a test of their government's resilience, and survived. Imran Khan has said that he has a last-minute surprise that will save him from losing the vote.
However, as defeat looms, Khan has made it clear he will not go gentle into the night.
"Determined to turn his ouster — if he remains unable to prevent it — into a moment of political martyrdom, Khan has built up a combative narrative, melding religious beliefs with nationalistic fervor", wrote the Dawn in its Sunday editorial, titled, "Eyes on Islamabad".
"This is a dangerous ploy, as it will provoke the sentiments of PTI's charged up-supporters and may trigger violence in the streets. With the prime minister urging his electorate to turn out in large numbers before the vote to protest this 'conspiracy', matters can take a dangerous turn. There are fears that protesters may violently confront opposition and dissident MPs ahead of the vote. The opposition has already expressed concerns for the safety of those going to parliament today. One hopes sufficient preparations have been made to prevent matters from spiralling dangerously out of hand," the influential Pakistani daily wrote.
Shehbaz Sharif, the leader of the opposition in the Pakistani National Assembly on Saturday (2 April) said that Prime Minister Imran Khan is "trying to divide the nation and pushing the country towards a civil war".
He has alleged that Imran Khan's government was conspiring to sabotage the constitutional process of the no-trust motion, and added that Islamabad's administration and police should ensure law and order on Sunday.
Sharif said that instead of accepting defeat, the premier seemed hell-bent on dividing the nation and sabotaging the voting on the no-confidence resolution against him.
"The politics of Imran Khan to divide the nation will be buried tomorrow," he said.
Sharif reminded how Imran Khan was so fond of the United States and the former president Donald Trump, and expressed surprise that now all of a sudden, the premier was propagating this narrative of the US being a villain and conspirator against Pakistani democracy.
"Imran started by damaging Pakistan-China ties by criticising the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC). Pervez Khattak started it, followed by Imran Khan and Assad Umar, who went overboard with false propaganda against the CPEC. They said the loans were taken from China at 8%, whereas not a single one was over 2.25%, whereas the majority was not even loans and were investments by Chinese businessmen," the opposition leader said.
Sharif's remarks are followed by reports by the Pak media that the Pakistan government and the PTI leadership have reportedly planned to violently stop the opposition legislators from heading to the parliament and even prevent them from voting on the crucial no-trust motion on Prime Minister Imran Khan.
Pakistan's opposition parties' battle to oust Prime Minister Imran Khan through a no-confidence motion has entered the do-or-die stage, and its result will emerge Sunday (3 April) when the voting on the resolution will be held in the National Assembly under Speaker Asad Qaiser.
Prominent Pakistani journalist Hamid Mir told Naya Pakistan programme host on Saturday (2 April) that the PTI had instructed its supporters to gather near the Parliament to prevent and thrash any opposition MP or those intending to vote against Imran Khan. Violent protests would be held inside and outside the Pakistani parliament and the counting of votes would be postponed through violence in the House.
The Islamabad Capital Territory administration said on Saturday that all arrangements had been made for smooth conduct of voting on the resolution in the National Assembly and all roads leading to the Red Zone had been sealed.
Section 144 has been imposed in Islamabad by the district administration on Sunday in view of the possible violence.
Pakistan People's Party (PPP) Chairman Bilawal Bhutto-Zardari said the opposition had repeatedly asked Imran Khan to take an honourable exit and accept his defeat.
"He should have tendered his resignation. Now that the voting [on the no-trust move] is taking place, it should take place in a peaceful manner. It is unfortunate that this defeated man is making efforts to disrupt peace," he said while addressing a press conference at Zardari House, Islamabad, on Saturday evening.
He alleged that Prime Minister Khan was trying to incite violence — if not outside parliament, then inside it.
Imran Khan "will try to undermine a constitutional, democratic and peaceful transition of power by the show, display and use of force. This is a very serious issue. Parliament is our supreme institution. It represents the people of the country", he said.
"It is unfortunate that no PM in the history of the country has been removed constitutionally. Now that we are driving out a PM democratically, no obstacle should be erected," he said.
Meanwhile, PPP Vice President Sherry Rehman while talking to reporters regretted that high-level constitutional offices were being used to keep an individual in power. Accusing National Assembly Speaker Asad Qaiser of behaving like a "Tiger Force activist", she said there were reports that the PTI had asked the speaker to count the votes incorrectly.
She said the government was also thinking of using the office of the president in its quest to escape the no-trust motion.
Sherry Rehman said the Constitution was clear about the procedure for no-trust motion, and the government was trying to use all the delaying tactics to stick to power.
"They wanted to set the whole country on fire after seeing their imminent exit," she said.
Former Pakisatni prime minister Yousuf Raza Gilani while speaking at a press conference asked Imran Khan to show sportsmanship and "accept the reality". He claimed that the opposition had the support of 197 MNAs — much higher than the number required to oust the prime minister.
Hamid Mir said there were undeniable proof that the PTI activists would be used to disrupt the no-trust polling process. He said that other tactics including detention were also on the cards against the important opposition leaders.
The PTI leadership has called its workers to Islamabad to subvert the voting process. Sources said the PTI supporters would be brought to the parliament gate and they would resort to violence to stop the MNAs from entering the National Assembly.
They have been clearly directed not to let Opposition MPs cast vote inside the Parliament, he added.
All the while the opposition is determined to oust Imran Khan, Pakistan's army chief, Qamar Javed Bajwa, seems to have chosen a questionable time to publicly break ranks with the PTI government.
The Pakistani military is referred to locally as "the establishment". For them, Imran Khan, when he came to power in 2018, represented stability — especially as the economy recovered from a pandemic-induced contraction.
Top Pak generals had a say in every element of Khan's administration - from foreign policy and security matters to economic decisions. Bajwa and other generals regularly held private meetings with top business people and policy makers.
However, the relationship began to deteriorate, both over Khan's involvement in military promotions and souring relations with the US Reports said Pakistan's military, once a top recipient of American arms, has sought a more balanced foreign policy after becoming increasingly reliant on China for weapons.
When Qamar Javed Bajwa appointed Anjum to lead the Inter-Services Intelligence, or ISI, which oversees Pakistan's internal security, Imran Khan delayed the appointment and publicly voiced support for General Faiz Hameed, widely seen as his ally, to stay in the role. After a standoff lasting several weeks, the army chief got his way.
Pakistan's civilian leaders have long clashed with the military, which has ruled the country for about half of its history. Yet if anything, Khan has been criticized for being too close to the army since he promised to oversee a "New Pakistan" rid of corruption and favoritism following his 2018 election win.
Meanwhile, the army chief seems to have chosen a questionable time to publicly break ranks with the PTI government. His statement at the Islamabad Security Dialogue on the Russia-Ukraine conflict is likely to rekindle civil-military tensions.
According to The Dawn, Bajwa's opinion reveal that he stands considerably at odds with the PTI government on the matter.
"The army chief is entitled to his views, but it would have been better if they were expressed through policy formulated by the National Security Committee rather than before a public audience including foreign observers. This decision has only renewed doubts regarding the actual 'neutrality' of the establishment," the editorial read.
As Pakistan lies on the verge of another political turmoil, with many factions active – each with their own individual agendas, one might ask, Is Pakistan moving towards a civil war?
