Dry spell looms as Aman cultivation begins in May

The upcoming Aman season is going to face a drought as a prolonged dry spell is forecasted in the May-July period with 20-30% less rainfall – just when farmers will start planting paddy.

Farmers will require additional irrigation facilities for the timely cultivation of Aman paddy, which will increase output costs.

According to weather forecasts, the less-than-normal rainfall at the beginning of the Aman season is due to El Niño – a climate pattern that refers to unusual warming of surface waters and typically leads to drought events.

The Aman season, the second-largest production season of rice dependent on rainfall, begins in June-July after the Boro season ends.

According to government agencies involved in agricultural production, Aman cultivation was also delayed last season due to drought and some 5-6 lakh irrigation pumps were used across the country for irrigation to combat that drought, according to the Bangladesh Agricultural Development Corporation (BADC).

To put that into perspective, more than 16 lakh irrigation pumps were used in the fully irrigation-dependent outgoing Boro season, BADC data shows.

Meteorologists say there is a high possibility of a similar situation occurring this time too because the El Niño condition will reduce rainfall, which will impact crop cultivation and eventual productivity as Aman crops are completely dependent on rainfall in Bangladesh.

Mostafa Kamal Palash, a PhD researcher on weather and climate at Saskatchewan University in Canada, told The Business Standard, "Rainfall decreases and the tendency of drought increases in the years in which El Niño conditions are formed. This time too, the probability of forming El Niño conditions in various weather forecast models is 80-90%."

Mentioning the European Union weather forecast, he said, "Bangladesh may witness 20-30% less than usual rainfall in May, June and July, but there will be normal rainfall in August, September, and October. Hence, farmers may have to depend on irrigation pumps like last year at the beginning of the upcoming Aman season."

According to the Bangladesh Meteorological Department, in the last 30 years until 2021, the average July rainfall in Bangladesh is 496 millimetres. The rainfall in July 2021 was 471mm, but the rainfall in July 2022 was only 211mm, the lowest since 1981.

Drought, cost pressures hurting production

Dr MA Sattar Mandal, an agricultural economist and emeritus professor at Bangladesh Agricultural University, told TBS, "Drought naturally affects production but it can be largely offset by irrigation. However, the cost will increase in that case."

Due to the increase in the prices of fuel and electricity, the cost of irrigation will increase, rising overall production costs. Under drought and cost pressures, planting rice on less land can also reduce total production.

Sujan Mia, a resident of Sarishabari upazila in Jamalpur, has offered irrigation facilities with electric pumps to farmers during this Boro season. He charged Tk3,300 for watering per bigha (33 decimals) of land for the entire season, compared to Tk3,000 last year.

"Diesel-powered irrigation pumps cost more [Tk5,000 per bigha] due to the increase in fuel oil price, which was below Tk4,000 last year," Sujan told TBS.

Besides, the government has increased the price of all types of fertilisers by Tk5 this month, which might have failed to impact the Boro output cost, but it will have its full effect on Aman output.

After the Boro season, the largest amount of paddy production comes from Aman which plays a major role in the country's food security. Last year, the Boro season produced around 2.02 crore tonnes of rice. The target of 1.55 crore tonnes of rice in the Aman season was also met, claimed the agriculture ministry.

According to the Bangladesh Rice Research Institute (BRRI), the cost of aman production has increased due to the pressure of drought, labour costs and instability in the fertiliser market.

Production cost per kg of Aman paddy in 2021 was Tk25, which increased to Tk28.62 in 2022.

Director General of BRRI Dr Md Shahjahan Kabir told TBS, "We have held an inter-ministerial meeting recently. Even if the current rainless conditions prevail during Aman season, the farmers will be advised to plant paddy through an alternative method i.e. through irrigation. So that rice is planted on time. Because if it is late, it will affect production."

Besides, there are varieties of rice invented by BRRI (Brri-56, 57, 71) that can survive drought, which farmers are advised to cultivate, Shahjahan Kabir added.

However, the government has not warned farmers about a possible drought at the beginning of Aman. Farmers in some districts including Rangpur, Dinajpur, Rajshahi, and Jamalpur told TBS that they will wait for the rains as there is no such instruction.

Milan Miah, a farmer in Dinajpur, told TBS, "Last year, we waited for rains and planted paddy more than a month after the scheduled time. We do not know whether there will be drought or not this time. We will do it through irrigation if the government says so."

Drought feared in India and other countries

According to a report by the Indian English-language daily newspaper The Economic Times, India is also issuing warnings that the production of June-September crops such as rice, corn, cane, cotton and soybeans in the country is going to be affected by drought due to El Nino.

The Finance Ministry of India said El Nino conditions may lead to drought conditions, lower agricultural output and increased prices, the report said.

If the production of rice, corn, cane, and cotton decreases in India, it will affect the global market. Because India itself will then become an importer instead of an exporter of certain products to meet the demand.

Meanwhile, Argentina has been hit by its worst drought in 60 years this year, with $20 billion worth of expected crop damage.

Brazil's production is expected to drop by 40% due to drought. Besides, the heatwave in China and drought in America are hampering crop production all over the world, due to which, it is believed that the global prices of various products including oil, sugar, and wheat may be affected.

From the US to Italy, drought is raising concerns

According to Bloomberg Green's weather forecast on Friday, a heat wave in Spain has shattered records. Readings hit 38.8 Celsius (nearly 102 Fahrenheit) at Cordoba airport on Thursday. This comes after weeks of record heat across parts of Asia.

Dry conditions are occurring across much of Spain, through southern France and into northern Italy. The eastern and southern Black Sea areas are also stressed, according to the European Drought Observatory. In addition to southern Europe, large parts of Norway, Sweden and Finland are lacking soil moisture.

New figures show the US is facing similar trouble. The latest from the US Drought Monitor shows 25.55% of the contiguous US (the 48 states) is in drought. Most of that is in the central and lower Great Plains: 81.92% of Kansas and more than half of Texas is in drought.