Cyclone Biparjoy’s rapid build-up unusual and dangerous: Experts
Just how powerful is extremely severe cyclone Biparjoy?
Well, no Arabian Sea cyclone since 1982 (when satellite data started being used) has sustained at this strength for as long as Biparjoy has (126 hours). And it promises to break more records.
The cyclone, expected to cross the Gujarat and Pakistan coasts on 15 June has seen two stages of acceleration thus far -- one between June 6 and 7 that saw its wind speed increase from 55 kmph to 139 kmph, and another between 9 June and 10 June, when its speed, which had dipped a bit, increased from 120 kmph to 195 kmph -- according to data from the Joint Typhoon Warning Centre (JTWC). In the process, the storm evolved from a depression on 6 June to a severe cyclonic storm on 10 June.
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On Monday, 12 June, at 5.30 pm, the cyclone was about 310 km southwest of Porbandar, 330 km southwest of Devbhumi Dwarka, 400 km south-southwest of Jakhau Port, 410 km south-southwest of Naliya and 560 km south of Karachi (Pakistan), and expected to cross Saurashtra, Kutch and adjoining Pakistan coasts between Mandvi (Gujarat) and Karachi (Pakistan) near Jakhau Port (Gujarat) by noon on Thursday as a very severe cyclonic storm with maximum sustained wind speed of 125-135 kmph gusting to 150 kmph.
Such rapid intensification of cyclones over the Arabian Sea is unusual and dangerous, experts said. They added that Biparjoy was fuelled by extreme energy from the ocean, with an unusually warm Arabian Sea and wind conditions helping nurture it for around 156 hours till Monday. "Conducive ocean conditions with high sea surface temperature of 31 degrees C and strong upper- level outflow has aided the rapid intensification of this cyclone. Cyclone Biparjoy has been at least a Category 1 cyclone (hurricane strength) for 126 hours. This is the longest duration for an Arabian Sea cyclone with at least category 1 cyclone strength (>120 kmph) in satellite era (since 1982) as per JTWC", said Vineet Kumar Singh, researcher from Typhoon Research Centre, Jeju National University, South Korea.
By 14 June, it could set another record, he added. " It is likely to be the longest-lived cyclone with wind speed of over 35 knots (cyclone strength) over Arabian Sea."
The effect is already evident in high waves crashing into the Indian coastline.
"As a result of #ESCS #Biparjoy, the Indian coasts are experiencing high waves. The Open Ocean Buoy shows wave heights exceeding 8.3 m & the Wave Rider Buoy shows 4 m near Veraval Coast and are well matching with @ESSO_INCOIS predictions," tweeted Indian National Centre for Ocean Information Services on Sunday.
Expalining this, Roxy Mathew Koll, climate scientist at Indian Institute of Tropical Meteorology added: "Wave rider buoy by INCOIS at Veraval shows 4 m high waves. Storm surge forecasts indicate 5-8 m high waves in the open seas. As cyclone intensity increases with Arabian Sea warming, these storm surges are also becoming larger. We need more wave buoys to monitor these along the coast and the open seas."
The storm's intensification has already resulted in high tides along the Dwarka coast in Gujarat , with reports of high waves also coming from Mumbai. As the cyclone approaches, gusty winds and high tides are expected to persist, amplifying risks for coastal communities.
The India Meteorological Department's orange alert for the Saurashtra and Kutch coasts underscores the urgency for preparedness and evacuation measures. Schools in Saurashtra, including Devbhumi Dwarka, Jamnagar, Junagadh, Porbandar and coastal areas of Kutch were shut down on Monday, 12 June itself.
The storm's projected path indicates a potential impact on the Gujarat coast, with Porbandar, Devbhumi Dwarka, Jakhau Port, Naliya, and neighboring areas expected to bear the brunt of its fury. The intensity of the cyclone, coupled with its sustained wind speeds, poses a significant risk to life and property.
