It’s time to rethink our foreign policy
In this turbulent world, it is crucial for Bangladesh to revisit, modify, and update its foreign policy tools
The world is currently experiencing significant political upheaval. A global order, conserved and controlled by US hegemony, has suddenly come under pressure from different directions. Although the changes may seem sudden, the symptoms were already present.
The history of mankind has witnessed such turmoil whenever major powers fought for dominance. While US dominance largely remained unscathed after the 90s, its relationship with the old Cold War foe, Russia, was always under strain.
The rising power of China also posed a slow but consistent threat to US supremacy. The 9/11 attack and the subsequent global war on terror put the USA in a challenging position, but its dominance largely remained intact.
The supremacy of the United States was truly challenged when Russia decided to annex Crimea. This was a watershed moment as the USA faced a foe capable of rivaling its military might. This event led to the Russia-Ukraine war, which has devastated the eastern side of Ukraine. The war continues, exacting a tremendous toll in terms of deaths and destruction.
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The global economy, which was recovering after the Covid-19 pandemic, took another major hit due to the war as European economies felt the impact. Additionally, the stringent punitive measures taken against Russia's economy by the USA also resulted in unforeseen economic challenges worldwide.
The war occurred against the backdrop of an already deteriorating US-China relationship. Although that rivalry is primarily economic, the Russia-Ukraine war has created a situation in the global political arena around which the foreign policies of major powers are revolving and taking shape.
The same is true for weaker states which must proceed carefully during these chaotic times.
In this scenario, a weaker country has four options: join the US-backed Western camp, join the China-Russia camp, become a strong nation itself with significant political/economic/military leverage, or fend for itself against the impending crisis.
A fifth option is to form a coalition of like-minded countries. Such a coalition was created during the Cold War era to counteract the bipolarization of the world in the shape of the Non-Aligned Movement (NAM), but it has largely failed to produce significant outcomes.
The coalition still exists, albeit in a limited capacity. Forming any coalition during turbulent times is extremely challenging without a leader to guide it. Equal powers may agree to join hands, but it will be extremely challenging to keep them aligned to achieve any singular or collective objectives. Appointing a leader would be even more challenging. Such coalitions are inherently infeasible.
We must also consider the unique position of Israel in global politics. A small nation with a population of only about 10 million and a dedicated Jewish diaspora comprising extremely powerful and influential individuals, organisations, and media houses, Israel has strategically influenced foreign governments worldwide. It has largely achieved its targets, as evidenced by its war on Gaza, demonstrating its ability to commit genocidal activities, including the killing of children, women, and innocents, with impunity.
Its chief backer, the USA, and Western nations have bowed to Israel. Even the China-Russia camp hesitates to hold Israel properly accountable for its crimes. The war in Gaza sends a clear message to weaker nations: the global rule-based order will not protect them if the powerful decide to encroach upon their sovereignty.
In this turbulent world, it is crucial for Bangladesh to revisit, modify, and update its foreign policy tools. The foreign policy of Bangladesh is largely dictated by Article 25 of the constitution. It promotes international peace, security, and solidarity based on respect for national sovereignty and equality, non-interference in the internal affairs of other countries, peaceful settlement of international disputes, respect for international law, renouncement of the use of force, upholding the right to freely determine social, economic, and political systems, and supporting oppressed people.
Additionally, the proclamation by the Father of the Nation, "Friendship to all, malice to none," has been a major foundation of the current government's foreign policy, aiming to establish non-confrontational relations with all major powers.
The idea of a non-confrontational foreign policy stems from Bangladesh's own experience with genocide during its independence and subsequent political disturbances involving foreign powers. The problem with a non-confrontational foreign policy is that it works during peace and a stable world order.
During global turmoil, such an approach may lead to unforeseen complications. The two major camps are scouting for allies, and a balancing act may not satisfy their intentions. In such a scenario, they will prioritise their interests or those of a closer ally over ours.
The Rohingya crisis has clearly shown that regional powers like China, Russia, India, and Japan are willing to side with Myanmar at the expense of Bangladesh, even though we consider them friends.
As a nation, we have yet to fully grasp the extent of our influence and assess our strengths and leverages. Bangladesh has been given importance due to its geographical position, but we have failed to leverage that to further our interests.
For example, the transit facility given to India holds much more value to our large neighbour than the value Bangladesh hopes to gain using transit to Nepal or Bhutan or the interior provinces of India. While both outcomes are beneficial for the countries involved, one has the potential to impact much larger geopolitical events. The transit through Bangladesh has helped India stabilise and develop its northeastern region. We could have leveraged that to secure favourable trade, security, water, and diplomatic terms to address the trade deficit, border killings, fair share of river water, and the Rohingya situation.
Bangladesh has also failed to entice foreign investors to its market economy, which features a large concentration of consumers in a small land area, favourable for businesses. Attracting foreign direct investments and housing foreign businesses can elevate the country's status in the eyes of Western nations.
We have also failed to tap into the potential of our large, young population. The large Bangladeshi diaspora is also capable of enhancing the country's status if utilised properly and allowed to contribute to the country's growth without impediments.
A much-needed alignment is necessary within the government, where the foreign ministry should actively work with other government sectors, bypassing bureaucratic red tape to assess and use the country's strengths to achieve foreign policy objectives.
The economic drive and future of the country, as well as defence requirements, should be integrated into the foreign policy equation to maximise benefits. Bilateral trade talks must involve private sector entrepreneurs and law firms with extensive knowledge of international trade deals. Their insights should be considered to further the country's interests, providing the knowledge edge required to secure favourable deals. Agreements like the electricity purchase from the Godda power plant could have been negotiated with better terms if proper experts were utilised.
The defence sector also needs thorough examination, as the country may face external hostility during these turbulent times. We must articulate a well-crafted defence doctrine, considering the armed forces, operational capacity, manufacturing capacity, greater economy, resource mobilisation, leveraging foreign relations, procurement of provisions, etc. Such a doctrine will not call for war but will enable us to achieve readiness and provide focused direction in facing crises.
The main idea is that Bangladesh must properly assess its standing in the global arena and its ability to navigate turbulent waters. A purely peaceful overture or message of friendship may not suffice in the long run.
We must be resolute in our conviction and manoeuvre our foreign policy and state machinery to raise Bangladesh's standing in the global order while securing its future. A proper push in the right direction is all that Bangladesh requires.
Aamer Mostaque Ahmed is the Executive Director of the Youth Policy Forum (YPF)
Disclaimer: The views and opinions expressed in this article are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the opinions and views of The Business Standard.
