Is Saudi Arabia's mega football venture falling short of expectations?

In early 2023, Al-Nassr, a Saudi Arabian football club had taken the football world by storm after they had signed Cristiano Ronaldo. It was seen as the beginning of a new era. The Saudi Arabian football officials seem to have adopted a philosophy since early 2023 in their quest to attract footballers.Their principle was simple: spread enough money around, and there will be no shortage of players. Their aim was to change the face of football by bringing in some of the world's best players with immense financial offers.

Initially, this move seemed highly successful. The Saudi Pro League's ambitious project kicked off with the acquisition of superstar Cristiano Ronaldo, who was signed by the Riyadh-based club Al Nassr.

Ronaldo's arrival grabbed the attention of the football world, and the league even made aggressive attempts to sign Lionel Messi and Kylian Mbappé. However, despite their substantial financial offers, Saudi Arabia failed to lure either of the two superstars. Messi and Mbappé both decided against moving to Saudi Arabia.

Even though they couldn't secure Messi and Mbappé, Saudi club Al Hilal did manage to sign Neymar, a significant move for Saudi Arabian football. Along with Ronaldo and Neymar, other top stars like Karim Benzema, Sadio Mané, Roberto Firmino, N'Golo Kanté, and Riyad Mahrez have also joined Saudi clubs, adding further prestige to the league.

Saudi Arabia's strategy behind signing these stars was to challenge Europe's top five leagues and become their equal in terms of quality. They also aimed to build a strong brand value. However, 21 months later, it seems that the Saudi football project has not delivered on its initial promise. Despite making a lot of noise, the results have fallen short. The ambitious goals Saudi football set are still distant, and the excitement surrounding the project has arguably diminished. A quick glance at the spending of Saudi clubs this season tells a clear story.

According to figures provided by AFP, the Saudi Pro League spent a staggering $957 million on player acquisitions in 2023, the year they signed Ronaldo. But this year, that figure has dropped to €431 million, which is more than a 50% reduction in spending.

Additionally, in 2023, the Saudi Pro League was second only to the Premier League in terms of transfer spending. This year, however, it has dropped to sixth place. Even more telling is the fact that they haven't signed any major stars in the current transfer window. The most notable signing has been Ivan Toney, purchased by Al Ahli. So, why has Saudi club football, despite initial promise, failed to spread its wings?

One primary reason is that the economy, which Saudi football officials wanted to present as their strong point, has now become a limiting factor in the country's football renaissance. Analysts suggest that Saudi authorities have begun to assess the economic return on their record-breaking spending. Saudi Arabia, in its efforts to modernise its oil-dependent economy, has faced budgetary constraints.

James Dorsey, a research fellow at the Middle East Institute at the National University of Singapore, said, "I think they achieved their goal last year. They've put themselves on the map. Ronaldo and some others have huge followings. The question now is, how sustainable is this?"

Many are now comparing Saudi Arabia's petrodollar-driven football project to China's Super League. About a decade ago, Chinese clubs also started spending heavily to acquire players. However, they eventually went bankrupt, leading to the collapse of the entire project.

Saudi Arabia, however, is not in immediate danger of following China's path to failure. If all goes well, Saudi Arabia is set to host the 2034 FIFA World Cup. Rebranding football is therefore crucial for them. Through the success of the Saudi Pro League, they can send a strong message to the football world. Nonetheless, it's important to note that reducing spending in football is not an isolated occurrence. Recently, Saudi Arabia has also scaled back expenditures on some of its infrastructural projects, which may also explain the reduced spending on football. The ongoing Russia-Ukraine war and Israeli attacks on Gaza are believed to be connected to this tightening of finances.

Beyond external factors, there are also internal reasons for this shift. Firstly, spending big on big-name players doesn't necessarily guarantee success. For example, despite signing Ronaldo, Al Nassr has yet to win the league or a major trophy. Even though Ronaldo has performed well individually, it hasn't translated into club success. Conversely, Al Hilal has enjoyed success even without fielding Neymar. These examples are leading some to believe that spending lavishly on star names needs to be reined in.

Despite spending massive amounts, Saudi football hasn't yet generated the expected global buzz. It has yet to truly challenge Europe's top five leagues in terms of popularity. This has also influenced their player recruitment this season. Despite rumours, stars like Kevin De Bruyne and Mohamed Salah have not made the move to Saudi Arabia. Jordan Henderson, who briefly played in Saudi football, left after feeling disillusioned. The drop in spending could also be viewed in another light. FIFA's figures show that men's football transfer fees globally have decreased by 13% compared to last year, affecting Saudi football as well. However, their drop from second to sixth place suggests a more significant decline.

Some, however, believe that this reduction in spending is a logical progression. French journalist Mohammed Mandor stated that any sports project usually starts with large expenditures but later scales down to a more reasonable level for various reasons. Others also argue that it's not necessary to sign star players every season. As one Saudi league official said, "Who says we need to buy big players every summer? This year's spending reflects the league's maturity." Whether this reduction in spending is part of Saudi Arabia's commercial and economic strategy or indicative of a deeper issue will only become clear with time.