Delhi assembly election: How accurate were 2015, 2020 exit polls?
Several poll agencies and news channels will release exit poll predictions for today's Delhi assembly election. Voting for the 70-seat assembly is underway, and the results will be declared on February 8.
The Aam Aadmi Party (AAP) won the previous two iterations of the Delhi assembly election with handsome margins. Were the Delhi exit polls in 2015 and 2020 accurate?
2015 Delhi Assembly election exit polls
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Arvind Kejriwal-led AAP won 67 of 70 seats in the 2015 Delhi assembly election. The Congress couldn't even open its account. The BJP won just 3 seats.
Most exit polls predicted a clear victory for the Aam Aadmi Party. However, no poll agency predicted that AAP would win over 60 seats.
India TV-C Voter predicted 35-43 seats for AAP, and 25-33 seats for the BJP; India Today-Cicero predicted 38-46 seats for AAP and 19-27 seats for the BJP; ABP-Nielsen predicted 43 seats for AAP and 26 seats for BJP; Today's Chanakya predicted 48 seats for AAP and 22 for the BJP; Axis predicted 53 seats for AAP and 17 for the BJP. News Nation predicted 41-45 seats for AAP and 23-27 seats for the BJP.
2020 Delhi Assembly election exit polls
Aam Aadmi Party (AAP) pulled off yet another stellar performance. The party won 62 seats. The BJP improved its tally winning 8 seats. What did the exit polls predict?
Most of the exit polls predicted a landslide victory for the AAP. Jan Ki Baat predicted 55 seats for AAP and 15 for BJP; India Today-Axis My India predicted 59-68 seats for AAP, and 2-11 for BJP. Times Now predicted 47 seats for AAP, 23 for BJP; NewsX-Neta predicted 55 seats for AAP and 14 for BJP; India News-Nation predicted 55 seats for AAP and 14 seats for the BJP; ABP News-CVoter predicted 51-65 seats for AAP and 3-17 seats for BJP.
The Election Commission had issued a notification banning the conduct, publication or publicising of exit polls between 7.00 am to 6.30 pm on February 5 (Wednesday).
"In exercise of the powers under sub-Section (1) of Section 126A of the R.P. Act, 1951, the Election Commission, having regard to the provisions of Sub-Section (2) of the said Section, hereby notifies the period between 7.00 am to 6.30 pm on 05.02.2025 (Wednesday) as the period during which conducting and publishing or publicizing exit poll using the print or electronic media or dissemination in any other manner whatsoever, the result of any exit poll in connection with the aforesaid general and bye-elections, shall be prohibited," the notification reads.
