As Republicans edge ahead, Democrats make final push for midterms

When the 46th president of the United States, Joe Biden, got on to the stage in Philadelphia on Saturday, he had a guest with him, his former boss and a star of the Democratic Party, the 44th president Barack Obama.

"It's good to be home. It's good to be with family. And that includes someone we all love, Barack Obama — a great president, historic president, and I am proud to say, a dear friend," Biden said, acknowledging his early childhood years in Pennsylvania and his wife's roots in the state.

Obama, who, by all accounts, is more popular than the current incumbent, returned Biden's compliment and called him an "outstanding" president.

The two presidents were together in a key battleground state to back the Democratic candidate for the governor, Josh Shapiro, and for the Senate, John Fetterman, who has seen his lead slip in recent weeks to his Republican challenger. Biden and Obama spoke of the challenge posed by Republicans to democracy, social security, Medicare, and personal freedoms; and outlined what Democrats stood for and had accomplished.

But at the other end of the state, on same day, a third White House occupant also made an appearance: the 45th US President Donald Trump was in Pennsylvania to back the Republican candidate for governor, Doug Mastriano, and the party's candidate for the Senate, Mehmet Oz.

Trump used the moment to make his own presidential ambitions clear, indicating that his supporters will be happy "in a very, very, very short time", which has been widely interpreted as a precursor to Trump announcing a run for the next presidential elections in 2024. But on Saturday, Trump said his focus was on the races in Pennsylvania.

The battle on Tuesday

Voters across America on Tuesday will elect all 435 members of the House of Representatives, 35 members of the Senate, 36 state governors, 30 attorney generals and 27 secretaries of state, besides picking a range of candidates in other state and local races.

In recent weeks, Republicans have seen a big uptick in their prospects, with polls suggesting they are all set to win control over the House of Representatives. The race for the Senate is tight, with the contest boiling down to six states. At the moment, the Senate is evenly divided 50:50, with vice-president Kamala Harris's vote giving Democrats a majority, but the flip of even one seat will put this majority at risk.

In Pennsylvania, a Republican senator retired, which has opened up room for Democrats to make a bid for the seat. But, while Fetterman started out with an advantage, a recent stroke has raised doubts about his health and Oz's fierce attacks on Democrats over crime has seen the Republican candidates' own prospects improve.

Aside from Pennsylvania, Georgia, where Democratic senator Raphael Warnock is defending his seat against a challenge from Republican Herschel Walker, a former football star who has got embroiled in a range of personal scandals; Nevada; Arizona; and New Hampshire, where Republicans have mounted an offensive against Democrat incumbents; and Wisconsin, where Democrats are hoping to make inroads and take a seat held by a Republican, are the other battleground states.

How the race evolved

The Republican momentum for the Senate race is a wider reflection of how the midterm battle has evolved over the year.

Early in the summer, they began with a clear advantage. The American exit from Afghanistan in 2021 had given the Grand Old Party a momentum on national security issues, reflected in the party's win in Virginia's gubernatorial race last year. The battle between progressives and Democrats had held legislation in the US Congress hostage. And as the pandemic-induced supply chains disruptions continued, amid an infusion of liquidity in the economy, inflation began to emerge as a key concern among voters.

To top it, Republicans picked on key culture war issues, particularly education which they framed as an issue of "parental control" and built a campaign against the pedagogy on race and sexuality in school. The perception that Biden is too old for the job, and seemingly without control of his own party, has only added to the Republican effort.

By late summer, however, the momentum appeared to shift in favour of Democrats.

On national security, Biden and his team began to campaign around the transatlantic coalition they built up against Russia's war in Ukraine. The president also managed to get a raft of legislations through Congress. This included legislation on climate; domestic American manufacturing especially with regard to semiconductors; lowering prescription drug prices and other social welfare benefits; and an infrastructure investment act that he had pushed through Congress last year.

But for Democrats, the most significant boost in support came after the Supreme Court verdict on abortion, which overturned Roe v Wade, which enshrined abortion as a constitutional right, and made abortion a state subject. With polls repeatedly showing that most voters are against a ban on abortion, Democrats hoped to capitalise on the anger against the extremism which had resulted in Trump's judicial nominees overturning abortion rights. The fact that many of the Republican Senate candidates are Trump-backed candidates, who are seen as extreme and potentially alienating suburban voters, has also encouraged the Democrats. A series of high-profile gun violence cases also seemed to have shifted public mood in favour of tougher gun control measures, a theme that resonates more closely with the Democratic platform.

But as elections have drawn closer, Republicans appear to have once again gained ground. The single most important issue for voters is the economy, with cost of living and inflation being particularly big issues for them. Voters have told pollsters that they see Republicans as better equipped to deal with these issues than Democrats, even as has Biden deployed policy instruments, including the release from America's strategic petroleum reserves, to lower the price of gas.

The administration's effort to blame Vladimir Putin for inflation didn't seem to have enough buyers, neither did its effort to partially waive off student loans win any additional support that the party was hoping for. In even worse news, abortion appears not to be as big a mobilisational issue as the party had hoped.

To add to it, Republicans have focused on the issues of crime and immigration because there is a widespread perception of an increase in crime rates and illegal immigration for which voters blame the Biden administration. They have also returned to the issue of "parental control" on education, once again harking back to what Republicans alleged was the teaching around "critical race theory" and what they claim is the encouragement to children to explore their sexuality. Despite the fact that critical race theory isn't taught in the way Republicans suggest, Democrats have struggled to counter the narrative on education on race.

The Republican push

This momentum has allowed the Republicans to make a push in two unexpected ways.

One, the party is making a inroads in areas which have traditionally been as Democratic bastions. This is most clearly reflected in the race for the governor of New York, a traditionally blue state which is witnessing Republican candidate narrow the gap against Democratic incumbent, Kathy Hochul. Biden is heading to New York later on Sunday to campaign for Hochul, while the 42nd president Bill Clinton, a resident of the state, campaigned for her on Saturday.

Two, Republicans are also seeking to win over constituencies which have been traditionally seen as allied to Democrats, particularly Hispanics. Ever since Trump's election in 2016, there has been a sharper shift in the nature of the vote base of both parties, with Republicans continuing to build on the substantial inroads among white working class voters, another constituency that was seen as more aligned with Democrats in the past.

All of this is also happening in the backdrop of Biden's plummeting popularity ratings and anger against the incumbent president. Even though president has repeatedly sought to frame the election not as a referendum, but as a choice about the democracy that Americans want, a midterm election is often seen as a referendum on the sitting leader. And traditionally, the party holding the presidency has struggled to hold on to the House and Senate. This may result in Democratic voters being less motivated than Republican base, which in turn may get reflected in voter turnout on Tuesday.

As an energised Republican leadership makes a final push to take control of the House and possibly win the Senate, it is this somewhat adversarial political climate that the Democrats are battling. And that is what got Joe Biden, Barack Obama and Bill Clinton out in the field, in states in close proximity, Pennsylvania and New York, two days before the election, to fight for their party's survival and ensure that the Biden presidency retains some leverage on the Hill in the remaining two years of his term.