World holds its breath as US presidential polls near

With only a few days left until the presidential elections in the United States, the world is watching closely to see who Americans will choose for the most powerful job on 5 November, a decision that will have far-reaching consequences worldwide.

Polls show Democratic Vice President Kamala Harris and former Republican President Donald Trump are in a tightly contested race that is too close to call. However, world leaders have preferences, believing that certain candidates will best align with their interests.

The election results are anticipated to significantly influence the future of the international order, particularly concerning China, Russia, Ukraine, Gaza, Iran, and even Bangladesh.

India

India's Prime Minister Narendra Modi shared a close relationship with Trump during the latter's presidency, Modi was also one of the first world leaders to congratulate Biden on his 2020 election victory.

"I don't believe that Modi has a strong preference for one candidate over another," Chietigj Bajpaee, senior research fellow for South Asia, Asia-Pacific Programme at the UK-based think tank Chatham House, told Al Jazeera.

"While Donald Trump is more familiar to Modi from his first term in office, a Kamala Harris presidency offers a degree of continuity from the current Biden administration," Bajpaee told Al Jazeera.

Israel and Gaza

Israel's Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has not publicly endorsed either candidate. However, it is widely believed that he leans towards a Trump win.

In 2019, at the Israeli-American Council, Trump said, "The Jewish state has never had a better friend in the White House than your president."

The feelings were mutual. Netanyahu, in a 2020 statement, said that Trump was "the greatest friend that Israel has ever had in the White House".

Israelis, if they could, would vote by a large margin for Trump - the polls show that very clearly, Patrick Kingsley, The Times's Jerusalem bureau chief, wrote in the New York Times. 

President Harris might pressure Israel for a cease-fire and negotiations with Palestinians but is unlikely to cut military support, he said. 

In contrast, President Trump may be less concerned about Israeli settlers returning to Gaza, as some in the Israeli government desire, and he adopts a more aggressive stance on Iran, appealing to many Israelis. 

Russia, Ukraine

While Vladimir Putin has suggested that he might prefer Harris as president, many signs point towards Putin actually favouring a Trump win.

"Putin would love Trump as president for various reasons," Timothy Ash, an associate fellow in the Russia and Eurasia Programme at Chatham House, told Al Jazeera.

"First, Putin thinks Trump is soft on Russia and will roll over to give him a great deal on Ukraine – cutting military support to Ukraine and lifting sanctions on Russia," he said.

However, Russian analysts say regardless of who wins, Moscow officials believe the US aversion towards Russia will remain, the Anadolu news agency reported.

China

Xi Jinping has not publicly made any endorsements as neither Trump nor Harris have gone into detail about what their course of action would be towards China if they are elected.

"Whoever wins, the next US president will be a hawk on China," wrote Keith Bradsher, New York Times' Beijing bureau chief. "The people I speak to in Beijing are divided about which candidate would be better for China."  

However, the Chinese foreign policy world sees advantages to Trump winning the election.

However, behind the scenes, Chinese officials may be slightly leaning towards Harris, NBC news quoted Jia Qingguo, the former dean of the School of International Studies at Peking University, as saying.

China feels increasingly hemmed in by US efforts, particularly by the Biden administration, to strengthen alliances with many of China's neighbours: Japan, South Korea, the Philippines, India and above all Taiwan, reports Al Jazeera. 

Harris would probably continue those efforts. Trump is much less committed to building and maintaining international alliances. Trump has also shown much less interest in defending Taiwan. That is very welcome in Beijing.