Is Pakistan’s new government on shaky ground?

The opposition Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf (PTI) party won 15 of 20 seats in by-elections in Punjab, Pakistan's most populous province, on Sunday. The victory gives the PTI's coalition a majority in the Punjab assembly, just three months after the party's leader, former Prime Minister Imran Khan, lost a parliamentary no-confidence vote.

The opposition's triumph is surprising: Punjab is the country's biggest electoral prize and the stronghold of the Pakistan Muslim League-Nawaz (PML-N), the top party in the coalition that took over Pakistan's government in April. Moreover, during Khan's final weeks in power, he lost the support of Pakistan Army chief Qamar Javed Bajwa; Bajwa's backing helped Khan ascend to the prime ministership in 2018.

The Punjab by-elections were a referendum on both the new government's performance and on Khan's allegation that the current government colluded with the Pakistani military and the U.S. government to unseat him, which has been his dominant message since his ouster. (Washington has repeatedly denied this allegation.) The PTI's win in Punjab suggests voters rejected the coalition government and sided with Khan—the worst possible outcome for government leaders in Islamabad.

Pakistan's new government now finds itself in a precarious position. It was already on the defensive as it struggled to develop a plan to tackle soaring inflation and debt and as Khan held massive anti-government rallies. The defeat in Punjab will diminish its public mandate and galvanize the opposition. The government risks losing additional support when it soon implements austerity measures to comply with International Monetary Fund requirements for a recently secured new loan.

Khan has called on the government to step down and call early elections—Pakistan must hold a vote by October 2023—which even several of his most prominent critics have echoed. On Tuesday, the government insisted it will serve out its full term, although Pakistani reports suggest senior officials haven't ruled out early elections if leaders reach a unanimous decision.

Pakistani Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif has strong incentives to stay the course. Quitting now would give in to the core demand of a bitter rival. Sharif's PML-N will almost certainly fare poorly if elections take place soon, but if the prime minister holds out he has more time to win back public support.

Furthermore, Sharif will want to hold on until at least November, when Bajwa's term as army chief ends. The army chief is one of Pakistan's most powerful political players, and Sharif will want to make the next appointment. Khan may have lost Bajwa's support, but he still has backing from some of the security establishment, including Faiz Hameed, a former spy chief. Sharif and his allies will want to ensure the next army chief isn't on Khan's side.

Finally, the next year could bring economic changes that benefit the current government, including a fall in global commodity prices and the easing of COVID-19 supply chain disruptions. If the global economy improves, the large Pakistani workforce in oil-producing Persian Gulf states would be able to send higher remittances back home.

This isn't to say that Pakistan's government won't fold early. Large, sustained protests could prompt leaders to call early elections—especially if those leaders were under pressure from the powerful military. In addition, the governing coalition lacks unity. Policy challenges could tear it apart. It would also be more likely to step down early if it succeeded in ongoing efforts to secure legislative amendments that better protect its leaders from corruption charges.

For now, expect Sharif to address Pakistan's economic crisis by pursuing the new IMF loan and seeking additional aid from key partners such as China and Saudi Arabia. These measures don't address the underlying causes of Pakistan's economic stress, namely, uncompetitive exports, debt-ridden public sector companies, and insufficient taxation. Although the government has signaled its willingness to address these problems, it lacks the political capital—and the time—to do so.

Instead, Sharif will likely hope, perhaps naively, that familiar Band-Aid policies bring some economic relief and political breathing room to better position his party for elections whenever they happen.

Analyst Aftab Ahmed Khanzada argues in the Express Tribune that Pakistan's troubled past has made many citizens hopeless about the future. "Pakistan is emanating nothing but the horrifying wails of the broken hearts; wails that nobody can hear because they are eagerly engrossed in nation-building. But, I wonder if a nation's future can be built on broken hearts," Khanzada writes.

Michael Kugelman, the writer of Foreign Policy's weekly South Asia Brief.

Disclaimer: This article first appeared on Foreign Policy, and is published by special syndication arrangement.