What does Ismail Haniyeh's death mean for the Middle East

Hamas leader Ismail Haniyeh – appointed to the top job in Hamas in 2017 – was assassinated early morning of 31 July in Iran. In response, Hamas and Tehran made statements threatening revenge on Israel in a region already volatile by the 9-month-long war in Gaza and a deepening conflict in Lebanon.

The attack came hours after Israel struck a building in Dahiya, a busy neighbourhood in Beirut, killing Fuad Shukr, a top commander of the Lebanese armed group Hezbollah.

Simultaneously, the attack came at a time when negotiations for a ceasefire in Gaza were underway. And, Ismail Haniyeh was a leading figure on the Hamas side in the ceasefire talks. 

Sheikh Mohamed bin Jassim al Thani, Qatar's prime minister, wrote on X, "Political assassinations and continued targeting of civilians in Gaza, while talks continue, leads us to ask how mediation can succeed when one party assassinates the negotiator on the other side."

Haniyeh had been able to navigate travel restrictions by moving between Turkey and Qatar's capital, Doha. This allowed him to serve as a negotiator in ceasefire talks and maintain communication with Hamas' ally, Iran.

According to numerous diplomats, Haniyeh was considered a moderate in comparison to the more extremist members of the Iran-backed group in Gaza.

Although Israel has yet to claim Haniyeh's assassination, geopolitical analysts and pundits rightfully assume Israel is responsible. BBC's International Editor Jeremy Bowen, wrote, "The assassination fits more closely into Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu's conception of 'total victory' over Hamas than into the American idea that a ceasefire is vital to avoid an even deeper regional catastrophe."  

In May, the International Criminal Court prosecutor's office sought arrest warrants for three Hamas leaders, including Haniyeh, and Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, for alleged war crimes. 

Israel and Palestinian leaders have rejected the allegations.

Ismail Haniyeh was known for his strong and assertive approach to representing the Palestinian group's international diplomacy. This was particularly evident during the ongoing conflict in Gaza, where tragically, three of his sons, along with four of his grandchildren, lost their lives in an Israeli airstrike.

Israel's military campaign in response to Hamas' terrorist 7 October attack (which killed 1,200 people and kidnapped over 200, according to Israeli reports), has so far, killed over 39,000 people in Gaza, displaced over a million people and caused extensive destruction of the enclave. The West Bank had not been spared either. 

Tensions might spill over

The assassinations of Haniyeh and Shukr will force Iran and Hezbollah to respond cautiously in order to avoid a full-fledged regional conflict. Diplomats from the United States and the European Union are said to be in talks with their regional counterparts, attempting to prevent the crisis from worsening. 

The EU's efforts are thought to be aimed at Iran, whose leaders have vowed "harsh revenge" against Israel, whom they blame for Haniyeh's assassination in Tehran.

A statement from the Turkish Foreign Ministry aimed blame at Israel. "It has been revealed once again that the Netanyahu Government has no intention of achieving peace. This attack also aims to spread the war in Gaza to a regional level. If the international community does not take action to stop Israel, our region will face much greater conflicts."

Veteran Thai politician Areepen Uttarasin, who had been involved in negotiations for the release of hostages in Gaza, told international media, "The assassination is very serious because it occurred in Iran; it shows that Hamas's opponents can strike anywhere."

"Assassinating the Hamas leader will make negotiations and de-escalation more difficult. Things will become more violent and the situation will worsen, it will not improve," he added.

Ian Parmeter from the Centre for Arab and Islamic Studies at the Australian University told SBS News he doubted there was a way for Iran to respond that would not escalate the current situation.

Parmeter, who is a former Australian Ambassador to Lebanon, said not only would the situation likely have put a hold on negotiations for any sort of a ceasefire but also increase violence between countries Iran, Israel and surrounding countries.

"We could conceivably, in the worst case, get direct attacks on Israel from Iran with Iranian missiles, rockets and drones. At the same time or separately, Hezbollah rockets and missiles [could be] launched against Israel and we could conceivably also have others involved," Parmeter added.

"The tension can easily be as it is very much a possibility that the Houthis in Yemen and various militia groups in Syria and Iraq will join in on the attack against Israel. Iran may also seek to use its cyber capabilities to target Israel to hack into computers and cause some damage in that way."

Some say that Haniyeh's death would weaken Hamas. However, experts agree that Hamas will continue to operate the way it always has.

"Hamas has had a lot of its leaders killed by Israel over the years and it replaces them. So although Haniyeh is a major win, as far as Israel is concerned, it doesn't necessarily lead to anything like the destruction of Hamas as we currently see it in Gaza," said Parmeter.

The Hamas leader's death comes amid concerns of war between Israel and Lebanon's Hezbollah following a rocket attack on the Israel-annexed Golan Heights on 27 July.

Israel has accused Hezbollah of responsibility for the attack that killed 12 children, but the Iran-backed Lebanese group has denied any involvement.

Later on Tuesday, Israel struck Hezbollah's stronghold in southern Beirut in retaliation for the Golan strike. Iran has repeatedly warned Israel against attacking Lebanon.

Regional tensions are already at an all-time high since the start of the Hamas-Israel war in October, drawing in Iran-backed militant groups in Syria, Lebanon, Iraq and Yemen.

Fiery rhetoric, diplomatic actions

Despite his harsh rhetoric in public, Arab diplomats and officials saw him as more pragmatic than more hardline voices inside Gaza, where Hamas' military wing planned the 7 October attack.

Even after the killing of his sons in April, Haniyeh denied Israeli assertions that his sons were fighters for the group and said, "the interests of the Palestinian people are placed ahead of everything," when asked if their killing would impact truce talks.

"All our people and all the families of Gaza residents have paid a heavy price with the blood of their children, and I am one of them," he said, adding that at least 60 members of his family were killed in the war.

While telling Israel's military they would find themselves "drowning in the sands of Gaza," after the events of 7 October, he and his predecessor as Hamas leader, Khaled Meshaal, had shuttled around the region for talks over a Qatari-brokered ceasefire deal with Israel that would include exchanging hostages for Palestinians in Israeli jails as well as more aid for Gaza.

Israel would have none of it as it regarded the entire Hamas leadership as terrorists, accusing Haniyeh, Meshaal, and others of continuing to pull the strings of Hamas, which they regard as a "terror organisation." During Haniyeh's decade as Hamas' top leader in Gaza, Israel accused his leadership team of diverting humanitarian aid to the group's military wing. 

Hamas denied this.

However, it is unclear how much Haniyeh was aware of the 7 October assault before it occurred. The plan, devised by the Hamas military council in Gaza, was so closely guarded that some Hamas officials appeared surprised by its timing and scope. 

Nonetheless, Haniyeh, a Sunni Muslim, played a significant role in increasing Hamas' fighting capacity, in part by cultivating ties with Shi'ite Muslim Iran, which has openly supported the group. 

Who was Haniyeh?

Haniyeh was born in Gaza's urban Shati refugee camp to parents who were forced out of the town of Majdal – now the city of Ashkelon in Israel – during the 1948 war surrounding Israel's creation. Five years after his birth, Israel captured Gaza in the 1967 war, and he grew up under its occupation of the Strip. 

That young boy grew up and would be called a "terrorist" by many knew the battle he was fighting had cost, "We are ready for these costs: martyrdom for the sake of Palestine, and for the sake of God Almighty, and for the sake of the dignity of this nation."

Haniyeh was a young student activist at Gaza City's Islamic University. He joined Hamas in 1987, when it was formed during the First Palestinian Intifada. He was arrested and briefly deported. 

Haniyeh became a protégé of Hamas founder Sheikh Ahmad Yassin, who, like Haniyeh's family, fled from the village of Al Jura near Ashkelon. In 1994, he told Reuters that Yassin was a role model for young Palestinians, saying, "We learned from him love of Islam and sacrifice for this Islam and not to kneel down to these tyrants and despots."

By 2003, he was a trusted Yassin aide, photographed in Yassin's Gaza home holding a phone to the nearly paralysed Hamas founder's ear so he could participate in a conversation. 

Israel assassinated Yassin in 2004. 

Haniyeh was an early supporter of Hamas entering politics. In 1994, he stated that forming a political party would enable Hamas to deal with emerging developments. 

The Hamas leadership initially overruled it, but it was later approved, and Haniyeh became Palestinian Prime Minister after the group won Palestinian parliamentary elections in 2006, a year after Israel's military withdrew from Gaza. 

On 14 June 2007, amid the Battle of Gaza, President Mahmoud Abbas announced the dissolution of the March 2007 unity government and the declaration of a state of emergency. 

Haniyeh was dismissed and Abbas ruled Gaza and the West Bank by presidential decree.

Around 2016, Haniyeh relocated from Gaza to Qatar. He maintained an office in Doha.

When Haniyeh left Gaza in 2017, he was replaced by Yahya Sinwar, a hardliner who had spent more than two decades in Israeli prisons and whom Haniyeh had welcomed back to Gaza in 2011 following a prisoner exchange. 

Time will tell what lies ahead for Hamas. Many would eye Sinwar's next moves.